For Mizzou, it was not the best week as far as getting help in the polls. Several teams that could have provided help did not get it done; USC, screwed on two PI calls, Florida, trotting out a frosh QB giving hope with under two to go, only to melt in OT, and Cal, which could have easily beat Pitt but got in its own way too many times. LSU however gave Mizzou a lot of hope by coming back against Ole Miss, and now-upstart Vandy followed through with a win against UK (that meltdown against Georgia State is haunting).
Looking at the Coaches poll, there’s not a lot to argue about at this moment; a 5-2 Ole Miss team losing to UK ahead of Mizzou, and how ND is still 11 after losing to a meddling MAC team is about for now. That will fix itself in the next week or two though. Below Mizzou, the top 25 requires 25 teams, which is why teams like Pitt, Indiana, and Army, all who have played extremely weak schedules, are in. Again, that will fix itself in the next two weeks. For the AP, my only additional complaint is how Boise is at 15 and has beaten nobody with a pulse. Mizzou is probably more suited at 14-17 if you were to move Ole Miss, Boise, and ND down so I can live with the Coaches poll. AP, well McMurphy is gonna McMurphy.
On to the ever-evolving playoff picture looking at the polls and schedules barring any significant and unforeseen upsets, which we all know are coming:
In barring more than two losses and complete collapse:
• Texas (auto-bid), no question the #1 team right now. That hurts me saying that.
• Oregon (auto-bid), If Texas isn’t #1, Oregon is.
• Penn State (at-large), you win a lot of games when you play 19-11 which is exactly what happened in OT against USC with the eight officials added. None of the sports channels showed the blatant PI misses, which means no one that makes decisions on the playoffs saw them either. Must be nice to get home cookin’ on the road.
In barring three losses and taking one additional loss as listed regardless if the team loses their Conference Championship Game (CCG) (at-large):
• Alabama – One loss among @LSU OR Tennessee OR Mizzou OR @Oklahoma
• Georgia – One loss among @Texas OR Ole Miss
• Ohio State – One loss among Penn State, Michigan
That’s four of the seven at-larges: for the other three, the breakdown:
Can afford “the right” loss and realistically get in (eight teams for three spots not including ACC and BigXII champions) without any additional help, including their respective CCG if losing that game:
• SEC
o LSU – Alabama OR @Texas A&M
o Mizzou – @Alabama
o Tennessee - @Alabama
o Texas A&M – Texas
Lots of teams hanging around for spots the SEC, which will sort itself over the next two weeks. Each of these teams can take massive steps toward the playoff with two wins, especially LSU and Mizzou. For Tennessee, a loss is very impactful but would not necessarily take the Vols out of the running for a playoff spot, while Texas A&M has to win out to the Texas game to make the playoff.
• BigXII
o BYU – @Two-loss Utah
o Iowa State - @Two-loss Utah
The BigXII also has KState hanging around, but with Utah taking two back-to-back losses it is starting to look like a one-bid league unless BYU and Iowa State meet for in the CCG both undefeated. With Utah weakening, Iowa State only has a ranked KState team in the way of anything helping their strength of schedule, and BYU does not play a currently-ranked team the rest of the way. What looked like a decent conference two weeks ago suddenly looks very weak and top-heavy.
• Other
o Miami – One-loss @Syracuse OR ACC CCG against 12-0/11-1 Pitt, 11-1 Clemson OR 11-1 SMU
o Notre Dame – One-loss Army OR One-loss Navy
Miami has lived a charmed life and plays a very easy schedule after this week. The ACC looks like a one-bid conference if Miami loses as only Clemson is above the 12 line. The remaining ranked ACC teams have backloaded schedules. For ND, the team is living off its brand name only; playoff teams should not lose at home to MAC teams. Ever.
Other teams in second-tier consideration which can lose one more game and get in with additional help:
• Clemson – ACC CCG against Miami
• Pitt – ACC CCG against Miami
• SMU - ACC CCG against Miami
• Indiana - @Ohio State AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Ohio State)
• Illinois - @Oregon OR @Ohio State, AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Oregon or Ohio State)
• Nebraska - @Ohio State AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Ohio State)
• KState - @Iowa State AND not going to the BigXII CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Iowa State)
Thanks for stopping by the booth (two losses and no realistic path to win out)
Colorado, Ole Miss, Utah
What helps Mizzou
For Mizzou, still looking to A&M to lead the charge on the strength of schedule, A&M winning out to the Texas game is very helpful in the event of a beatdown against the Tide in two weeks. Losing on the road, even in a blowout, is not the end of the world; losing at home is the end of the world (looking at you ND). BC recovering from a terrible loss at Virginia and beating VT would help as BC begins the meat of its schedule and can wreak havoc in the ACC. Vandy continuing to beat fringe-playoff SEC teams Mizzou does not play (LSU, Tennessee) is also helpful. Bama beating Tennessee would help as well.
Non-SEC games that as a Mizzou fan can help this week: ‘Ville over Miami, Indiana over Nebraska, Georgia Tech over Notre Dame, Michigan over Illinois, West Virginia over KState, TCU over Utah. Just in case although I don’t think it’s needed, UNLV beating Boise keeps any at-large talk out for them as well.
Still a lot of ball to play and the next two weeks will sort a lot of this mess out with UM/’Ville, UM/UofI, IU/NU, A&M/LSU, Bama/Tenn and many more coming up. We should have the first real picture of the evolving playoff in two weeks, but for now enjoy the ride and hope for more chaos.
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