Didn't see anything around today's Coaches/AP polls versus the playoffs, so here is one view after looking at the polls, remaining schedules, and projected lines:
Texas, Ohio State and Oregon are in barring any surprising losses at this point. Georgia can likely join that conversation with a win in Austin. Penn State is all but in with a win at USC this weekend. Let's say that's five teams in of the 12.
2-3 at large spots In the SEC: Alabama, Tennessee, Mizzou, A&M, Ole Miss, and LSU. This crowd will thin down to no more than four teams over the next two weeks.
Potentially 1 at-large spot In the BIG, for Indiana if they do the impossible and finish 11-1 with a close lose at Ohio State.
Likely 1 at-large spot in the BigXII if two teams out of BYU, Utah, K-State, and Iowa State go 11-1 and meet in the conference championship game.
Potentially 1 at-large spot in the ACC if Miami and Pitt are 12-0 and meet in the CCG, or a 12-0 Miami team plays a 11-1 Clemson team and loses. I don't think a 2-loss ACC team gets in as we currently stand.
There's also the ND factor, but I am hopeful when the CFP polls come out in November they will account for the loss at home against NIU, which is by far the worst loss out of the one loss teams so far. Playoff teams don't lose at home in MACtion games.
This week, the Ole Miss/LSU loser is out. LSU/A&M in two weeks will go a long way to determining how bad the loss in College Station hurts Mizzou. A&M winning this game starts realistic playoff talks with only Texas as the only major test and A&M starts to look like a Top 10 team; LSU winning the next two starts to bring them back into the conversation for a bid and jumps both A&M and Mizzou with no real way to reclaim an at-large bid back from LSU without significant help.
What it all means for Mizzou and what helps the cause:
- A&M to win out to the Texas game and look competitive against Texas. A&M likely makes the playoff in this scenario at 10-2.
- Alabama to win out (assuming Mizzou loses in Tuscaloosa) to the SEC title game. Alabama is in, in this scenario.
- A loss by Penn State at USC would be very helpful (LSU beat USC earlier this year). Penn State losing to OSU and @Minnesota on top would be even better.
- ND losing a second game is very helpful, even better if that game is to USC to end the year.
- Indiana, Pitt, and K-State each lose a game to an unranked opponent. BC beating Pitt at the end of the year is even more helpful.
- Utah loses to BYU; BYU runs the table and wins the BigXII.
- Iowa State loses to Utah and K-State. Even better if they drop a game against an unranked opponent, either Colorado or West Virginia.
- Clemson loses any conference game.
- Vandy keeps playing the way they did against Alabama and springs another upset, even better if that is against Tennessee.
Mizzou helps itself instantly by beating Alabama, which is highly unlikely. However, Mizzou still has now three quality games with South Carolina, Arkansas, and Oklahoma left, all of which can repair the damage of losing at A&M. Saturday hurt but is nowhere near the death blow as was discussed yesterday. A 10-2 Mizzou team with losses to Top 5-10 Alabama and A&M teams can still get in. Losing any other game is the end of any playoff talk for Mizzou.
And for the love of God - Notre Dame, please lose to Stanford this weekend so you drop out the poll.
