As we sit right at the halfway point of the season, I wanted to take a look at the status of Mizzou’s resume.
The Tigers enter today sitting 32nd in the NET rankings. Their quadrant win breakdown looks like this:
Q1: 2-2
Q2: 1-0
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Some things to point out here:
- UCF and Illinois are the two Q1 wins. As they were neutral games, they need to keep a Top 50 NET ranking to qualify as Q1 wins at season’s end. They both were hovering right at the 50 mark entering last week, but big wins have catapulted both into the 30s (36 and 37 respectively). Good news for the Tigers there.
- Kentucky is their lone Q2 win as of now. That will very likely stay a Q2 win unless Kentucky either goes on a tear or completely falls apart. At 46 in the NET, they would need to finish inside the Top 30 to be categorized as a Q1 victory. Conversely, they would need to fall below 75 to drop to a Q3 win.
- Wichita State, SIUE and Vanderbilt are your Q3 wins. The latter two will almost assuredly stay that way as they would need to get into the Top 75 and both currently sit 115 and 116 respectively. However, Wichita State has a very real chance to become a Q2 win, which would be welcome. They are 136 in NET, just outside the 135 road threshold to qualify for a Q2 win. So hopefully the Shockers can right the ship in the AAC after a late comeback road victory over USF yesterday.
As a whole, the Tigers resume is almost perfect at this point in the season. No Q3 and Q4 losses are exactly what you want to see. The fact that there aren’t even any Q2 losses yet makes it even better. The only real knock there is against the resume is lack of Q1 and Q2 wins. Only three at this point in the season is certainly light. But….
The rest of the season provides almost exclusive opportunities for resume-building Q1 and Q2 wins. Let’s take a look:
@ A&M (82 NET): Q2
@ Florida (70): Q1
Arkansas (16): Q1
Alabama (6): Q1
@ Ole Miss (94): Q2
Iowa State (15): Q1
LSU (90): Q3
@ Mississippi State (44): Q1
South Carolina (264): Q4
@ Tennessee (2): Q1
@ Auburn (33): Q1
Texas A&M (82): Q3
Mississippi State (44): Q2
@ Georgia (119): Q2
@ LSU (90): Q2
Ole Miss (94): Q3
Some takeaways:
- There are seven chances left to pick up the all-important Q1 victories. What’s even better news? Three of those opportunities are on your home court. Go 2-1 in those games and steal a road chance (looking at you Mississippi State or Florida) and you are sitting pretty with five Q1 wins.
- Plenty of chances to pick up resume-building Q2 wins against meh competition on the road. Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU. These are exceedingly mediocre teams that would qualify as resume-building wins since they are on the road.
- Only four potential land mines are left on the schedule. You absolutely have to avoid the Q4 landmine against the Cocks. You can afford a Q3 loss, but certainly would rather avoid it. The bottom-line, defend your home court against mediocre competition and you are looking at an unblemished resume.
TLDR: Mizzou has an unblemished resume but is light in terms of actual resume wins. Luckily, the conference schedule provides seven more chances at Q1 and five more chances at Q2 wins. Only four more Q3 and Q4 games are left on the schedule. Luckily, all are on your home court. Bottom line, defend your home court, pick up 3-4 wins on the road and you have a Top 5 NCAA seed come March.