| Seed | Region 1 | Region 2 | Region 3 | Region 4 |
| 1 | Gonzaga | Baylor | Michigan | Ohio State |
| 2 | Villanova | Illinois | Houston | Alabama |
| 3 | Missouri | Virginia | Wisconsin | Texas |
| 4 | Tennessee | Iowa | West Virginia | USC |
| 5 | Oklahoma | Xavier | Texas Tech | Rutgers |
| 6 | Va Tech | BYU | Purdue | Drake |
| 7 | Clemson | Florida State | UCLA | Kansas |
| 8 | San Diego St. | Louisville | Boise State | St. Bonaventure |
| 9 | Colorado | Creighton | Florida | Arkansas |
| 10 | Maryland | VCU | Colorado St. | Oklahoma St. |
| 11 | Loyola (IL) | Minnesota | LSU | Toledo |
| 12 | Colgate | Penn St./Richmond | West KY/Stanford | UNC |
| 13 | Winthrop | Marshall | Belmont | UC Santa Barbara |
| 14 | Furman | So. Dakota St. | Siena | Abilene Christian |
| 15 | Georgia St. | Wright St. | Liberty | Northeastern |
| 16 | E. Wash/Norfolk St. | Bryant/Vermont | Prairie View | Grand Canyon |
Last 4 Byes: UNC, LSU, Minnesota, Maryland
Last 4 In: Richmond, PSU, Stanford, WKU
First 4 Out: Arizona (ineligible), SMU, UConn, Seton Hall, Indiana
Next 4 Out: Syracuse, St. Mary's, Utah St., Oregon
Quick thoughts:
1. Oregon and SLU have gotten boned by covid. Part of the formula the NCAA *appeared* to use was based on "counting" stats, quad points. By not playing they're losing out on this. I'm not sure how the committee will deal with that this year. Further, both teams have played 2 games against mediocre/bad competition and lost both, surely a product of the layoffs. Those WILL count. No bueno for those guys.
2. This is what the committee has chosen to do in the past. But I would surmise that Syracuse and Indiana both make this field over Richmond and Penn State. Penn State is understandable with their record being 6-8 (though very strong SOS). In a year where the blue blood contingent will be light and they have said they'll use the "eye test," (barf), don't be hanging around the edge of the bubble. Especially when Syracuse pushes their way into the backend seemingly every year now.
3. A spot could conceivably open up if Ok State's appeal is denied. They are tentatively eligible as they appeal their postseason ban.
Here's the general idea if you missed it previously:
1. Looked at 2019, only year NET has been used, studied team sheets and saw what factors were most important to committee and seeding.
2. Used those same criteria to project a field this year.
3. This is based on right now, if the season ended today. Not what is projected to happen based on the outcome of future games.
4. I used Pomeroy to predict the future auto-bid winners. I don't know how they'll be selected at this point. I'm assuming conference tourneys. As such, I picked the teams the forward looking numbers liked the most. Complete guess work.
5. I doubt the committee is incredibly consistent year-to-year. I'm even less confident it will be the case this year. This is difficult. Oregon has dropped like a rock (top 25) for not playing the last 2-3 weeks and now is barely hanging on the periphery of the tournament. Same with SLU. That's not a shot at them, it's just that you can't place them over teams who have done more things, through no fault of their own. I'll continue to update when I get a chance through the rest of the season.
6. 31 Auto-Bids; 37 At-Large. Chart is on an "s-curve." Read left to right on the odd number seeds, right to left on the even number seed lines to follow the true seed list. And no, our 2nd round matchup was not a product of data manipulation.
7. I did not attempt to bracket teams. I've heard they will go straight off the S-Curve this year with no geographic considerations, but there are still issues of teams facing each other X number of times during the season can't meet before Y round.
