Had an event last night so I wasn't able to catch the game until late in the evening. I'll include a few thoughts on yesterday's affair along with a bigger picture discussion.
1. Beating Vanderbilt isn't a season changing victory, but it matters, and here's why. Mizzou lost their best player prior to the season. Then one of it's top 5 players was saddled on the bench due to transfer restrictions. And then 2 weeks ago, they lost their remaining best player (Geist is in the discussion there, but Smith has been better more frequently). That is a LOT to lose from one team. And then look at Vandy. They lost what was probably their best player. They were 4-0 when he went out early vs. Kent State. From that time, they have gone 5-12 with one win over a team ranked in the top 280 teams in NCAA basketball. It sucks losing talented players. But the reaction to that adversity is also important. Mizzou has responded much better than Vanderbilt has. And outside of a 5 minute stretch where the 'Dores heated up from 3, Mizzou comfortably handled them yesterday.
2. Let's talk turnovers. It's a constant point of discussion, most of the time rightly so, sometimes not. Mizzou is 8-0 when it wins the turnover battled. They're 3-9 when they don't. Let's take a little deeper look at that. The following are the turnovers per game (omitting really poor opponents), and in parentheses, the opponent's defensive turnover % rank (1st being best at creating opponent turnovers):
Vandy: 9 (313th)
Auburn: 20 (1st)
LSU: 17 (35th)
Arkansas: 24 (28th)
aTm: 12 (189th)
Alabama: 11 (265th)
USCe: 20 (99th)
Tennesee: 15 (133rd)
Illinois: 16 (17th)
Xaiver: 13 (283rd)
UCF: 10 (144th)
Temple: 15 (63rd)
KSU: 14 (22nd)
OSU: 9 (280th)
ISU: 25 (93rd)
Vs. top 100 turnover opponents: 18.9 TO per game (8 games; 1-7 record)
Vs. sub 100 turnover opponents: 11.3 TO per game (7 games; 5-2 record)
Upcoming Schedule:
Tennessee (133rd)
aTm (189th)
Arkansas (28th)
Mississippi (86th)
Kentucky (84th)
Florida (4th)
MSU (128th)
USCe (99th)
Georgia (330th)
Mississippi (86th)
I've posted quite a few threads the last few weeks on turnovers, so I won't rehash that here. But my general beliefs about turnovers and issues this year are: 1. a fair amount of turnovers is healthy, if they are aggressive; there's a reward for a certain type of risky pass; 2. more experienced perimeter players have better assist:turnover ratios; 3. so many of our turnovers this year are in the half court vs. against a full court press (see Arkansas game); 4 many of our turnovers this year aren't risk reward plays, they're less than clean passes/catches; 5 the longer players play together, the better they are at collectively protecting the ball.
3. Mizzou pretty much dominated yesterday. And they did it shooting a mediocre 7-22 from 3 (31%). Consider: Mizzou shot 13 more times yesterday. How? They were +9 in offensive boards and +3 in turnovers. Vanderbilt may have shot roughly the same percentage overall, but they tied with 7 3 point makes and Mizzou had 7 more 2 point makes (vandy was +4 at the line; but our FT shooting was pretty poor yesterday)
4. Youngin's were the difference makers yesterday.
Upperclassmen: 76 minutes; 20 points; 17 boards; 8 assists; 1 steal; 0 blocks; 6 turnovers
Underclassmen: 134 minutes; 57 points; 20 boards; 6 assists; 3 steals; 2 blocks; 3 turnovers
5. The light switch is currently in the "ON" position for Tilmon
First 2 SEC Games: 11 min/game; 3.5 ppg; 0.5 rpg; 2.8 fouls/game (1 dq)
Last 6 SEC Games: 29.5 min/game; 13.3 ppg; 6.2 rpg; 5 fouls/game (2 dq's)
Overall, he's improved from last year as well:
Usage
2019: 25.0
2018: 24.8
Off Rebound %
2019: 10.6
2018: 12.4
Def Rebound %
2019: 18.1
2018: 12.5
Fouls Drawn/40
2019: 4.9
2018: 4.4
Free Throw %
2019: 71%
2018: 54%
FG %
2019: 57.7%
2018: 55.1%
WS/40
2019: 1.27
2018: 0.82
6. The whole in this year's roster is as predictable as it is aggravating. Mizzou is getting good contributions out of their following spots (ws/40; higher is better)
Perimeter:
Smith: .180
Geist: .155
Pinson: .101
Pickett: .084
Watson: .049
Traditional Post:
Tilmon: .127
Nikko: .097
And then there's this...
Power Foward/Stretch Post
Puryear: .080
Smith: .078
Santos: -0.17
(FWIW, Jontay had a .179 a year ago).
The perimeter and block players numbers as a whole aren't outstanding, but you have options. And anecdotally, when one of them has a poor game, another may have a pretty good game (seems to be especially true with our 3 freshman perimeter players). There's just no reliable production out of a particular spot on the floor.
7. That leads me to needs for 2019-2020, at least how I perceive them. Assuming everyone returns (bad assumption) and the two signees make it to campus:
Perimeter
Suggs ** (SR)
D. Smith (JR)
Ma. Smith (JR)
Pickett (SO)
Pinson (SO)
Watson (SO)
McKinney (FR)
Stretch 4/ Big Wing
Santos (JR)
Mi. Smith (JR)
Braun** (SO)
Jackson (FR)
Post
Nikko (SR)
Tilmon (JR)
**Walk-on
In my opinion, with a pretty loaded class in 2020, I don't want use both remaining scholarships on freshman UNLESS you know that you'll have defections that open up spots.
So...
1. I'd like a unicorn grad transfer. By that I mean, someone who is a 6'5"-6'9" player who can score the ball, has good range and athleticism. That's the starting point. Since that will be virtually impossible to find/land, work away from that incrementally. If he's smaller but physical, adapt to more of a 4 guard lineup and simply phase out your weakness. If he's more of he stretch 4, fantastic.
2. Best available freshman; preferably the same type of framework as #1...just less polished. You can afford for this spot to take a little longer in terms of development. Gardner could fit here.
That means you have at LEAST two scholarships open for 2020 with two graduating seniors; and in all likelihood more (likely Mitchell or Santos as a grad transfer senior)
1. Beating Vanderbilt isn't a season changing victory, but it matters, and here's why. Mizzou lost their best player prior to the season. Then one of it's top 5 players was saddled on the bench due to transfer restrictions. And then 2 weeks ago, they lost their remaining best player (Geist is in the discussion there, but Smith has been better more frequently). That is a LOT to lose from one team. And then look at Vandy. They lost what was probably their best player. They were 4-0 when he went out early vs. Kent State. From that time, they have gone 5-12 with one win over a team ranked in the top 280 teams in NCAA basketball. It sucks losing talented players. But the reaction to that adversity is also important. Mizzou has responded much better than Vanderbilt has. And outside of a 5 minute stretch where the 'Dores heated up from 3, Mizzou comfortably handled them yesterday.
2. Let's talk turnovers. It's a constant point of discussion, most of the time rightly so, sometimes not. Mizzou is 8-0 when it wins the turnover battled. They're 3-9 when they don't. Let's take a little deeper look at that. The following are the turnovers per game (omitting really poor opponents), and in parentheses, the opponent's defensive turnover % rank (1st being best at creating opponent turnovers):
Vandy: 9 (313th)
Auburn: 20 (1st)
LSU: 17 (35th)
Arkansas: 24 (28th)
aTm: 12 (189th)
Alabama: 11 (265th)
USCe: 20 (99th)
Tennesee: 15 (133rd)
Illinois: 16 (17th)
Xaiver: 13 (283rd)
UCF: 10 (144th)
Temple: 15 (63rd)
KSU: 14 (22nd)
OSU: 9 (280th)
ISU: 25 (93rd)
Vs. top 100 turnover opponents: 18.9 TO per game (8 games; 1-7 record)
Vs. sub 100 turnover opponents: 11.3 TO per game (7 games; 5-2 record)
Upcoming Schedule:
Tennessee (133rd)
aTm (189th)
Arkansas (28th)
Mississippi (86th)
Kentucky (84th)
Florida (4th)
MSU (128th)
USCe (99th)
Georgia (330th)
Mississippi (86th)
I've posted quite a few threads the last few weeks on turnovers, so I won't rehash that here. But my general beliefs about turnovers and issues this year are: 1. a fair amount of turnovers is healthy, if they are aggressive; there's a reward for a certain type of risky pass; 2. more experienced perimeter players have better assist:turnover ratios; 3. so many of our turnovers this year are in the half court vs. against a full court press (see Arkansas game); 4 many of our turnovers this year aren't risk reward plays, they're less than clean passes/catches; 5 the longer players play together, the better they are at collectively protecting the ball.
3. Mizzou pretty much dominated yesterday. And they did it shooting a mediocre 7-22 from 3 (31%). Consider: Mizzou shot 13 more times yesterday. How? They were +9 in offensive boards and +3 in turnovers. Vanderbilt may have shot roughly the same percentage overall, but they tied with 7 3 point makes and Mizzou had 7 more 2 point makes (vandy was +4 at the line; but our FT shooting was pretty poor yesterday)
4. Youngin's were the difference makers yesterday.
Upperclassmen: 76 minutes; 20 points; 17 boards; 8 assists; 1 steal; 0 blocks; 6 turnovers
Underclassmen: 134 minutes; 57 points; 20 boards; 6 assists; 3 steals; 2 blocks; 3 turnovers
5. The light switch is currently in the "ON" position for Tilmon
First 2 SEC Games: 11 min/game; 3.5 ppg; 0.5 rpg; 2.8 fouls/game (1 dq)
Last 6 SEC Games: 29.5 min/game; 13.3 ppg; 6.2 rpg; 5 fouls/game (2 dq's)
Overall, he's improved from last year as well:
Usage
2019: 25.0
2018: 24.8
Off Rebound %
2019: 10.6
2018: 12.4
Def Rebound %
2019: 18.1
2018: 12.5
Fouls Drawn/40
2019: 4.9
2018: 4.4
Free Throw %
2019: 71%
2018: 54%
FG %
2019: 57.7%
2018: 55.1%
WS/40
2019: 1.27
2018: 0.82
6. The whole in this year's roster is as predictable as it is aggravating. Mizzou is getting good contributions out of their following spots (ws/40; higher is better)
Perimeter:
Smith: .180
Geist: .155
Pinson: .101
Pickett: .084
Watson: .049
Traditional Post:
Tilmon: .127
Nikko: .097
And then there's this...
Power Foward/Stretch Post
Puryear: .080
Smith: .078
Santos: -0.17
(FWIW, Jontay had a .179 a year ago).
The perimeter and block players numbers as a whole aren't outstanding, but you have options. And anecdotally, when one of them has a poor game, another may have a pretty good game (seems to be especially true with our 3 freshman perimeter players). There's just no reliable production out of a particular spot on the floor.
7. That leads me to needs for 2019-2020, at least how I perceive them. Assuming everyone returns (bad assumption) and the two signees make it to campus:
Perimeter
Suggs ** (SR)
D. Smith (JR)
Ma. Smith (JR)
Pickett (SO)
Pinson (SO)
Watson (SO)
McKinney (FR)
Stretch 4/ Big Wing
Santos (JR)
Mi. Smith (JR)
Braun** (SO)
Jackson (FR)
Post
Nikko (SR)
Tilmon (JR)
**Walk-on
In my opinion, with a pretty loaded class in 2020, I don't want use both remaining scholarships on freshman UNLESS you know that you'll have defections that open up spots.
So...
1. I'd like a unicorn grad transfer. By that I mean, someone who is a 6'5"-6'9" player who can score the ball, has good range and athleticism. That's the starting point. Since that will be virtually impossible to find/land, work away from that incrementally. If he's smaller but physical, adapt to more of a 4 guard lineup and simply phase out your weakness. If he's more of he stretch 4, fantastic.
2. Best available freshman; preferably the same type of framework as #1...just less polished. You can afford for this spot to take a little longer in terms of development. Gardner could fit here.
That means you have at LEAST two scholarships open for 2020 with two graduating seniors; and in all likelihood more (likely Mitchell or Santos as a grad transfer senior)
