The football itch is back and it's only April. After the multiple one-score losses from last year, I'm personally excited to see what this team can do in 2023. Teams like TCU showed that teams in our position (multiple one-score games) can flip their fortunes to unbelievable heights just by winning these games. TCU was just as close to being 8-4 as it was to being 13-2 and in the National Championship. Results aside, it's fun to think about where Mizzou can be at season's end if we just get better luck. We won 40% of our "coin-flip" games last year (Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas) and the losses were all flukey aside from Florida. Let's say we don't fumble vs. Auburn and don't "rough the kicker" vs. Kentucky... we're looking at a good 8-4 season.
Let's talk about the schedule - it's brutal in comparison to last year's. That makes me nervous. Last year, drawing Auburn from the West added another coin-flip game. This year, we draw LSU, whom I think will be better than they were last year. I divided the 2023 opponents into 3 categories - "Should Win," "Coin-Flip," and "Should Lose:"
Their is simply no other option than to get better in one-score games. Last year, we won 40% (2/5) of our "coin flip" games. If we hit at that rate again, we'll end up winning 2-3 of our coin-flip games. If we win two "should wins" and three "coin flip" games, that puts us squarely at 5-7. The consensus on here is that it needs to be a 7-win season for Drinkwitz to keep his job. That means we'll likely need to win 5 of the 6 "coin-flip" games. Do we have the team and staff to do that? Our defense will keep us in tight games, but I'm not quite sold on Kirby Moore's offensive scheme. It's a lot of chunk gains/chunk losses when it's working well. A lot of risky plays, smoke-and-mirrors, and longer-developing pass concepts attacking the middle of the field. Fresno State spent a lot of time behind the sticks. It's also just his 2nd season as a coordinator. How will the mix of his gambling approach and inexperience hold up in these tight games? We need the right personnel - an accurate QB that can extend plays, receivers running routes on timing & anticipation, etc.
That brings us into the QB battle. Based on what I've seen in Kirby Moore, he's going to want to find someone as similar to Jake Haener as possible. He can sit up at the podium and say he's going to "adapt to personnel" all he wants, but that's a lot easier said than done. To truly adapt to personnel in my opinion, you need experience running a true offensive system and a history of identifying strengths/weaknesses of your guys. Kirby's still so green as an OC that he's still finding what he likes to do, and that's okay. I really think he's going to go into his comfort zone and find the most Haener-like guy we have.
Who do we have that fits these qualities? This is who wins the job in my opinion.
- High football IQ
- Takes care of the football at all costs
- Commander of the locker room
- Accurate on the short/intermediate throws
- Throws the slant/fin route well
- Unafraid runner willing to take shots
After watching hours of Jake Haener/Kirby Moore since the hiring, I've come to the conclusion that player is Brady Cook. Jake Haener looks a lot like Cook with more refined tools. Personally, I'd be fine with it. But that would create a huge rift in the fanbase if Cook continues to be our guy. Would Drinkwitz let that happen after chasing Jake Garcia and Sam Horn? Would Cook improve at all after surgery and missing spring ball? How much influence does Kirby Moore have in choosing this starter as the OC/QB coach? I'm interested to see how this all plays out. Somebody's going to be really happy and somebody's going to be pissed and transfer.
I've rambled enough. Here's my 2023 predictions:
WEEK 1 - (0-0, 0-0) - vs. SOUTH DAKOTA - W 41-7
WEEK 2 - (1-0, 0-0) - vs. MTSU - W 28-21
WEEK 3 - (2-0, 0-0) - vs. KANSAS STATE - L 26-20
WEEK 4 - (2-1, 0-0) - vs. MEMPHIS - W 27-17
WEEK 5 - (3-1, 0-0) - @ VANDERBILT - W 28-21
WEEK 6 - (4-1, 1-0) - vs. LSU - L 49-27
WEEK 7 - (4-2, 1-1) - @ KENTUCKY - W 24-17
WEEK 8 - (5-2, 2-1) - vs. SOUTH CAROLINA - W 24-20
WEEK 9 - BYE
WEEK 9 - (6-2, 3-1) - @ GEORGIA - L 31-7
WEEK 10 - (6-3, 3-2) - vs. TENNESSEE - L 27-13
WEEK 11 - (6-4, 3-3) - vs. FLORIDA - L 27-21
WEEK 12 - (6-5, 3-4) - @ ARKANSAS - L 31-21
FINAL RECORD: (6-6, 3-5)
Let's talk about the schedule - it's brutal in comparison to last year's. That makes me nervous. Last year, drawing Auburn from the West added another coin-flip game. This year, we draw LSU, whom I think will be better than they were last year. I divided the 2023 opponents into 3 categories - "Should Win," "Coin-Flip," and "Should Lose:"
- SHOULD WIN
- South Dakota - one of the worst teams in FCS
- Memphis - nice QB/RB combo, but having no offensive line, very average receivers, and a pourus defense plays right into our team's strengths
- COIN-FLIP
- MTSU
- This game will be much tougher than we think
- I think we win by 8-10, but we'll have our hands full with a stout, turnover-hungry defense.
- Somewhere between "coin flip" and "should win." Major trap game vibes with KSU next week as well
- Vanderbilt
- Young team with a lot of energy and some talented skill guys (WR Will Sheppard, TE Cole Spence, good secondary)
- They usually give us a fight. We were fortunate to have beaten them on homecoming in 2022.
- Same status as MTSU; I think we win, but wouldn't be surprised if it's anyone's game in the 2nd half
- Kentucky
- Is Leary legit? He'll be put to the test vs. our tight coverage
- This is going to be a big game for Rakestraw/KAD against Kentucky's pair of star sophomore WR's, Dane Key and Barion Brown.
- Back end of their defense is going to be tough, but we can beat up their DL
- South Carolina
- You just never know what you're going to get out of the Gamecocks. Spencer Rattler is an embodiment of this.
- They have some solid peices at skill positions on both sides of the football
- Tennessee
- I'm not buying Joe Milton. He's looked good in flashes, but he's a classic big-arm guy who needs deep threat weapons for consistent success. This year, their receiving core is led by a possession receiver, Bru McCoy. I think he'll be good, but not great.
- Our corners are going to be up to the challenge. With the addition of Tre'Vez Johnson, we have four solid options at that position, and Tennessee loses Hyatt.
- I'm more scared of their running game and defense than anything. They return a lot of guys in those areas and got a couple of solid guys in the portal
- Florida
- Their offense is not the most organized. They oftentimes get WR's running routes in the same area and lack a signature identity. Anthony Richardson was their offense last year.
- That defensive line is going to be unreal this year. DE Prince Umanmielen will make an NFL team quite happy in 2024.
- Can they handle a November game in the midwest? History doesn't agree
- MTSU
- SHOULD LOSE
- Kansas State - they return a ton of guys and have the coaching advantage. Will take everything we have to win this one. Kirby Moore struggles against defenses similar to KSU's as well.
- LSU - I think they'll be better than last year. Jayden Daniels is a beast, Harold Perkins is only going to get better, and they don't have a true weakness on either side of the ball.
- Georgia - They will not be sleepwalking past ol' Missouri this time
- Arkansas - As much as I hate to say it, I can see Arkansas returning to their 2021 form. They're a senior-laden group and it'll be their senior day. K.J. Jefferson will show out one last time in Fayetteville
Their is simply no other option than to get better in one-score games. Last year, we won 40% (2/5) of our "coin flip" games. If we hit at that rate again, we'll end up winning 2-3 of our coin-flip games. If we win two "should wins" and three "coin flip" games, that puts us squarely at 5-7. The consensus on here is that it needs to be a 7-win season for Drinkwitz to keep his job. That means we'll likely need to win 5 of the 6 "coin-flip" games. Do we have the team and staff to do that? Our defense will keep us in tight games, but I'm not quite sold on Kirby Moore's offensive scheme. It's a lot of chunk gains/chunk losses when it's working well. A lot of risky plays, smoke-and-mirrors, and longer-developing pass concepts attacking the middle of the field. Fresno State spent a lot of time behind the sticks. It's also just his 2nd season as a coordinator. How will the mix of his gambling approach and inexperience hold up in these tight games? We need the right personnel - an accurate QB that can extend plays, receivers running routes on timing & anticipation, etc.
That brings us into the QB battle. Based on what I've seen in Kirby Moore, he's going to want to find someone as similar to Jake Haener as possible. He can sit up at the podium and say he's going to "adapt to personnel" all he wants, but that's a lot easier said than done. To truly adapt to personnel in my opinion, you need experience running a true offensive system and a history of identifying strengths/weaknesses of your guys. Kirby's still so green as an OC that he's still finding what he likes to do, and that's okay. I really think he's going to go into his comfort zone and find the most Haener-like guy we have.
Who do we have that fits these qualities? This is who wins the job in my opinion.
- High football IQ
- Takes care of the football at all costs
- Commander of the locker room
- Accurate on the short/intermediate throws
- Throws the slant/fin route well
- Unafraid runner willing to take shots
After watching hours of Jake Haener/Kirby Moore since the hiring, I've come to the conclusion that player is Brady Cook. Jake Haener looks a lot like Cook with more refined tools. Personally, I'd be fine with it. But that would create a huge rift in the fanbase if Cook continues to be our guy. Would Drinkwitz let that happen after chasing Jake Garcia and Sam Horn? Would Cook improve at all after surgery and missing spring ball? How much influence does Kirby Moore have in choosing this starter as the OC/QB coach? I'm interested to see how this all plays out. Somebody's going to be really happy and somebody's going to be pissed and transfer.
I've rambled enough. Here's my 2023 predictions:
WEEK 1 - (0-0, 0-0) - vs. SOUTH DAKOTA - W 41-7
WEEK 2 - (1-0, 0-0) - vs. MTSU - W 28-21
WEEK 3 - (2-0, 0-0) - vs. KANSAS STATE - L 26-20
WEEK 4 - (2-1, 0-0) - vs. MEMPHIS - W 27-17
WEEK 5 - (3-1, 0-0) - @ VANDERBILT - W 28-21
WEEK 6 - (4-1, 1-0) - vs. LSU - L 49-27
WEEK 7 - (4-2, 1-1) - @ KENTUCKY - W 24-17
WEEK 8 - (5-2, 2-1) - vs. SOUTH CAROLINA - W 24-20
WEEK 9 - BYE
WEEK 9 - (6-2, 3-1) - @ GEORGIA - L 31-7
WEEK 10 - (6-3, 3-2) - vs. TENNESSEE - L 27-13
WEEK 11 - (6-4, 3-3) - vs. FLORIDA - L 27-21
WEEK 12 - (6-5, 3-4) - @ ARKANSAS - L 31-21
FINAL RECORD: (6-6, 3-5)
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