GENERAL THOUGHTS:
This is going to be a great matchup- Forget how Wake ended the season, they have one of the best offensive units in college football.
- They have a littany of playmakers on their roster and are licking their chops to prove their worth against a stout SEC defense.
- He is one of the best QB's in the nation and has taken Wake Forest to unforseen heights as a program during his tenure.
- Wake Forest's receiving core is one of the best in CFB, but Mizzou's back seven is no joke.
- It will be a battle on the perimeter, and a battle we must win to come home with a victory.
PERSONNEL REPORTS - USING PFF's GRADING SYSTEM:
Top Players by overall rating:- QB #10 SAM HARTMAN - 87 OVERALL RATING (best player on the field!)
- 3,400 passing yards
- 35 TD, 11 INT
- WR #9 A.T. PERRY - 81 OVERALL RATING
- 70 receptions, 1,000 yards
- 11 TD's
- Targeted 112 times, doubling next receiver
- WR #2 TAYLOR MORIN - 78 OVERALL RATING
- 44 receptions, 550 yards
- 7 TD's
- Splits slot duties with another great wideout, Ke'Shawn Williams (76 OVR). That makes his statistics even more eye-popping.
- LT #59 JE'VIONTE' NASH - 52 OVERALL RATING
- 43 overall pass-blocker, not typical of a LT at all
- Has given up 5 sacks, 29 pressures
- Relatively short for an FBS LT (6'3), much better run blocker than pass blocker.
- RG #59 LOIC NYA NGASSAM - 63 OVERALL RATING
- Giant disparity in his pass blocking grade (79 OVR) and run blocking grade (58 OVR)
- He will be matched up against our best run-stuffing DL, Darius Robinson. If Robinson has a big game, they will only be able to run to their left.
THE CHESS MATCH
Wake Forest has built a reputation for running their slow-mesh RPO offense, where the QB will ride the mesh with the RB deep into the LOS before throwing a downfield pass.
- Blake Baker majors in Cover 1, which takes the defensive backs out of their run-pass conflict that they'd have in zone coverages ("do I defend the run or defend the pass?"). Our eyes are on the receivers the entire play.
- However, I still expect Wake to go back to this scheme quite often against our defense.
- Missouri will have to play a four-man rush, "1 RAT" coverage for reasons I'll explain later. This is man across the board, with a zone-dropping "rat" Linebacker undercutting any middle-running routes.
- One of the popular RPO's in Wake Forest's offense is to pair an inside running play with a pair of quick-hitting slant routes, the QB reading the backside LB.
- In a 1 RAT scheme, this places the LB in a bit of conflict. He will see run action for a long time, but does he chill at 5 yards in anticipation for the pass, or fill his run gap? If he fills his run gap, we end up playing man on one of their top targets, either Taylor Morin/Ke'Shawn Williams. If he stays at 5 yards, we run a major risk of losing a hat in the run game.
- I think we have to dare them to give the football and rely on our interior DL to beat blocks.
- In a 1 RAT scheme, this places the LB in a bit of conflict. He will see run action for a long time, but does he chill at 5 yards in anticipation for the pass, or fill his run gap? If he fills his run gap, we end up playing man on one of their top targets, either Taylor Morin/Ke'Shawn Williams. If he stays at 5 yards, we run a major risk of losing a hat in the run game.
- One of the popular RPO's in Wake Forest's offense is to pair an inside running play with a pair of quick-hitting slant routes, the QB reading the backside LB.
- Missouri will have to play a four-man rush, "1 RAT" coverage for reasons I'll explain later. This is man across the board, with a zone-dropping "rat" Linebacker undercutting any middle-running routes.
- However, I still expect Wake to go back to this scheme quite often against our defense.
- We must be able to get home with four
- Missouri majors in 1 RAT and "NO-RAT" Cover 1 (5-man pressure, no "rat" to help on inside-breaking routes)
- With Hartman's elite grades vs. the blitz, I would be surprised if we run 5-man pressures with country-ass man coverage on these WR's. If they beat man coverage and break the tackle, these receivers are very capable of doing serious damage. We need a rat defender to help or we're playing with fire.
- If we ever elect to run a zone scheme, we must play a well-disguised Quarter-Quarter-Half look rotated to the defense's right side. Consider stunting the DT's with these calls or just penetrating them to accelerate the timeline with the slow-mesh.
- Sam Hartman is excellent at hitting the intermediate "hole shot" throws to A.T. Perry on the defense's right side. We need to bail out in zone coverages and make him beat us underneath.
- Missouri majors in 1 RAT and "NO-RAT" Cover 1 (5-man pressure, no "rat" to help on inside-breaking routes)
- Look for Johnny Walker Jr. to have a big game as he matches up against their struggling LT, Je'Vionte' Nash in dropback pass scenarios.
- They will be tested in a way they haven't been tested since Tennessee. Hopefully, the outcome is better than that.
- A.T. Perry, Ke'Shawn Williams, and Taylor Morin have been shredding defenses all year.
- Carnell will be on Morin/Williams as he gets the start at the "STAR" position
- Perry only lines up on the left side of the formation, where he will be paired up with Rakestraw the entire game.
- A.T. Perry, Ke'Shawn Williams, and Taylor Morin have been shredding defenses all year.
- Against the last elite receiving core we played (Tennessee), Mizzou played a lot of off-man coverage. I don't think we can do that against the Demon Deacons.
- The timing in their offense is unusually slow. Playing off-man gives the receivers time to work elusive moves on us that would force us to hold or get beat.
- A receiver can only do so many things to beat a press man defender. I think Rakestraw is quick enough to stick with any arm-over or shake from the long-legged A.T. Perry at the LOS.
- Perry's most successful routes are Glance Posts, Digs, and Intermediate Crossing routes. Playing a hard-inside corner limits his route tree to deep outside fades if we play with good technique. I like our chances with Rakestraw on a fade.
- A receiver can only do so many things to beat a press man defender. I think Rakestraw is quick enough to stick with any arm-over or shake from the long-legged A.T. Perry at the LOS.
- Carnell will see a load of quick slants from the slot-receiver duo in their RPO's. Playing off-man from inside leverage gives them a chance to turn our hips with a well-executed release.
- I think we can be successful playing a tight outside-shade leverage over the slot position.
- This lets us carry him in the low-hip trail position to the Rat LB, creating a bracket.
- This also make it much more difficult to run the "slot fade" offenses have used against us.
- I think we can be successful playing a tight outside-shade leverage over the slot position.
- The timing in their offense is unusually slow. Playing off-man gives the receivers time to work elusive moves on us that would force us to hold or get beat.
MIZZOU'S KEYS TO SUCCESS:
WIN WITH FEWER HATS IN THE RUN GAME - LET THE DEFENSIVE LINE WIN 1V1 BATTLES
FORCE WAKE FOREST TO HAND THE BALL OFF - THEY WANT TO SLING IT
ENNIS RAKESTRAW MUST WIN AGAINST A.T. PERRY
WIN WITH FEWER HATS IN THE RUN GAME - LET THE DEFENSIVE LINE WIN 1V1 BATTLES
FORCE WAKE FOREST TO HAND THE BALL OFF - THEY WANT TO SLING IT
ENNIS RAKESTRAW MUST WIN AGAINST A.T. PERRY
