Not that @Numbahs
Since I shirked on my post game thread yesterday, I'll just leave a load of numbers here for your consideration...
Pomeroy Rating: 37th
--
Adjusted Offense: 44th
eFG%: 36th
TO %: 329th (YUCK)
Off Reb%: 62nd
FT Rate: 82nd
FT %: 34th
assist/FG Made: 82nd
--
Adjusted Defense: 50th (we were ranked over 100 early in conference play)
eFG%: 11th (that's elite)
TO %: 290th
Def Reb%: 148th
FT Rate: 123rd
Assist/FG Made: 35th
--
Pace: 311th (we play slow)
--
SOS: 16th
Quick Thoughts
1. Our offense has been slipping a little bit, but it hasn't had as much to do with missing shots as it is the turnover rate creeping up from an already inflated rate. That ranking is simply terrible. It's frankly amazing that they're able to win games. It's not just the PG's either, as Porter, Tilmon, Geist and Van Leer each turn it over greater than 20% of the time they're "used." That's half of our available roster.
2. But, we're still shooting it well and sharing it well. For as bad as the turnovers are, we still do pretty well on assisting the basketball. We also do a decent job at getting to the line and crashing the glass to get extra possessions. And we make a lot of shots when considering their value (we shoot a lot of 3's, make some of them, and shoot really well from the line.).
3. Defensively, we cause few turnovers, are only average on the glass and put opponents on the line at a decent clip. But, we don't allow our opponents easy looks. That's shown by an elite eFG% by our opponents and a really solid opponent assist rate.
Nothing really ground-breaking there, aside to say that their defensive efficiency rating has jumped almost 50 spots over the last three weeks. The last time Mizzou finished top 50 in that defensive figure was 2010.
Now, for where the team stands in terms of tournament potential...
I really like looking at TeamRankings.com tourney projections. Instead of just giving you picks, they use a system to measure all teams against one another, drop in some predictions for how they'll do based on said system the rest of the year, and spit out odds. Instead of names, they give you numbers. It's a free site and fun to click around on and waste 30 minutes. Anyway, here are the interesting/relevant numbers there:
Tourney odds: 60.9% (54% at-large; 6% auto bid) (note: 7 days ago, we were at 26%; how about that swing?)
Odds to make tourney by win total (again, I believe they're including Emporia here, so we're 15-8 now):
18: 1%
19: 12.3%
20: 50.5%
21: 84.6%
22: 96.3%
23: 99.4%
24+: 100%
(Thoughts: If Mizzou finishes 6-2, they're very likely in the tournament. 5-3, it's a complete 50/50 proposition if they don't get one in STL. 4-4 will leave them a decent amount of work to do. And those numbers are based on today and on projections. Things can and will change. The good news is: We have everything in front of us and if Mizzou plays like they did the last two games, they're going to have a really solid chance.)
The site has their seed rankings broken down that of the 60% chance of making the tourney, there's a 20% chance they end up in the 8-9 game and a 17% chance they end up in the 7-10 game. Not ideal, but I'd take it in a heartbeat today.
Teams we're going to be rooting against until conference tournaments, where that could change if they're from single team bid leagues (note, a lot of SEC teams in here that I've omitted, since we have or will play them and it directly impacts our resume):
Florida State
Middle Tennessee
Arizona State
TCU
Butler
USC
New Mexico State
Michigan
Providence
Texas
Boise State
UCLA
Loyola
Temple
SMU
Washington
Louisville
Those comprise a (big) look at potential bubble teams. Mizzou winning first and foremost is the most important. Other bubble teams losing is pretty good too...especially if they lose to teams that are solidly in, or not in play for an at-large. That group will likely change a lot over the month, but I guess it's never too early to look.
RPI Business
I hate that this number is still relevant, but it is, so we talk about it.
Mizzou's RPI Resume 2/4/18
RPI: 32nd
SOS: 12
Tier 1: 5-6
Tier 2: 2-1
Tier 3: 4-1
Tier 4: 3-0
*Note: Emporia is not considered
Thoughts
1. The only losses that aren't Tier 1 are Illinois (duh) and Florida, due to playing at home. We were fvcked in the UF game, so whatever.
2. Of the 22 games that have counted, HALF of them have been tier 1 games, and Mizzou is just shy of .500 in those contests. That's solid. Of the other 11 games, Mizzou is 9-2 which is also solid.
3. Remaining games (pre-SECt)
Tier 1: aTm, @LSU, @Kentucky
Tier 2: @Ole Miss, MSU, @Vandy, Arkansas
Tier 3: Ole Miss,
Tier 4: None
If anyone is still reading at this point, bless you. This was about as hard to get through as the last 3 years of Mizzou basketball.
Since I shirked on my post game thread yesterday, I'll just leave a load of numbers here for your consideration...
Pomeroy Rating: 37th
--
Adjusted Offense: 44th
eFG%: 36th
TO %: 329th (YUCK)
Off Reb%: 62nd
FT Rate: 82nd
FT %: 34th
assist/FG Made: 82nd
--
Adjusted Defense: 50th (we were ranked over 100 early in conference play)
eFG%: 11th (that's elite)
TO %: 290th
Def Reb%: 148th
FT Rate: 123rd
Assist/FG Made: 35th
--
Pace: 311th (we play slow)
--
SOS: 16th
Quick Thoughts
1. Our offense has been slipping a little bit, but it hasn't had as much to do with missing shots as it is the turnover rate creeping up from an already inflated rate. That ranking is simply terrible. It's frankly amazing that they're able to win games. It's not just the PG's either, as Porter, Tilmon, Geist and Van Leer each turn it over greater than 20% of the time they're "used." That's half of our available roster.
2. But, we're still shooting it well and sharing it well. For as bad as the turnovers are, we still do pretty well on assisting the basketball. We also do a decent job at getting to the line and crashing the glass to get extra possessions. And we make a lot of shots when considering their value (we shoot a lot of 3's, make some of them, and shoot really well from the line.).
3. Defensively, we cause few turnovers, are only average on the glass and put opponents on the line at a decent clip. But, we don't allow our opponents easy looks. That's shown by an elite eFG% by our opponents and a really solid opponent assist rate.
Nothing really ground-breaking there, aside to say that their defensive efficiency rating has jumped almost 50 spots over the last three weeks. The last time Mizzou finished top 50 in that defensive figure was 2010.
Now, for where the team stands in terms of tournament potential...
I really like looking at TeamRankings.com tourney projections. Instead of just giving you picks, they use a system to measure all teams against one another, drop in some predictions for how they'll do based on said system the rest of the year, and spit out odds. Instead of names, they give you numbers. It's a free site and fun to click around on and waste 30 minutes. Anyway, here are the interesting/relevant numbers there:
Tourney odds: 60.9% (54% at-large; 6% auto bid) (note: 7 days ago, we were at 26%; how about that swing?)
Odds to make tourney by win total (again, I believe they're including Emporia here, so we're 15-8 now):
18: 1%
19: 12.3%
20: 50.5%
21: 84.6%
22: 96.3%
23: 99.4%
24+: 100%
(Thoughts: If Mizzou finishes 6-2, they're very likely in the tournament. 5-3, it's a complete 50/50 proposition if they don't get one in STL. 4-4 will leave them a decent amount of work to do. And those numbers are based on today and on projections. Things can and will change. The good news is: We have everything in front of us and if Mizzou plays like they did the last two games, they're going to have a really solid chance.)
The site has their seed rankings broken down that of the 60% chance of making the tourney, there's a 20% chance they end up in the 8-9 game and a 17% chance they end up in the 7-10 game. Not ideal, but I'd take it in a heartbeat today.
Teams we're going to be rooting against until conference tournaments, where that could change if they're from single team bid leagues (note, a lot of SEC teams in here that I've omitted, since we have or will play them and it directly impacts our resume):
Florida State
Middle Tennessee
Arizona State
TCU
Butler
USC
New Mexico State
Michigan
Providence
Texas
Boise State
UCLA
Loyola
Temple
SMU
Washington
Louisville
Those comprise a (big) look at potential bubble teams. Mizzou winning first and foremost is the most important. Other bubble teams losing is pretty good too...especially if they lose to teams that are solidly in, or not in play for an at-large. That group will likely change a lot over the month, but I guess it's never too early to look.
RPI Business
I hate that this number is still relevant, but it is, so we talk about it.
Mizzou's RPI Resume 2/4/18
RPI: 32nd
SOS: 12
Tier 1: 5-6
Tier 2: 2-1
Tier 3: 4-1
Tier 4: 3-0
*Note: Emporia is not considered
Thoughts
1. The only losses that aren't Tier 1 are Illinois (duh) and Florida, due to playing at home. We were fvcked in the UF game, so whatever.
2. Of the 22 games that have counted, HALF of them have been tier 1 games, and Mizzou is just shy of .500 in those contests. That's solid. Of the other 11 games, Mizzou is 9-2 which is also solid.
3. Remaining games (pre-SECt)
Tier 1: aTm, @LSU, @Kentucky
Tier 2: @Ole Miss, MSU, @Vandy, Arkansas
Tier 3: Ole Miss,
Tier 4: None
If anyone is still reading at this point, bless you. This was about as hard to get through as the last 3 years of Mizzou basketball.
