It’s Monday morning, so it’s time for me to let you all know what’s been on my mind the past week or so (or for this one, mostly the past 15ish hours).
Today will mostly be NCAA Tournament thoughts since we finally know where the Tigers are headed.
Basketball Thoughts
1. How could we start anywhere else?
The Tigers are headed to Wichita for a matchup with the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday at 6:35 p.m.
Drake is good. My initial response when the draw was announced is it’s going to be a tough matchup, especially pairing the Tigers against former Northwest Missouri State coach Ben McCollum.
Drake hasn’t been bad in a while, but when Darian DeVries left for West Virginia, there were some questions about whether a DII powerhouse coach could make the jump to the next level.
Clearly, he can. And he’s already being mentioned for some power-conference jobs opening up this offseason.
But - and I’ll dive deeper into Drake through the week’s coverage leading up to the matchup (let me know if you guys are interested in Texas Tech/UNC-Wilmington stuff, too. I don’t want to jump any guns, but I also don’t want to end up without time to do the pre-game coverage you guys might be looking for) - there is a pretty big flaw the Tigers should be able to take advantage of with Drake.
No one on the roster is taller than 6-foot-8.
Now, don’t get too excited, no one who plays regularly for Vanderbilt is taller than 6-8 either and we saw how that can work for the shorter team pretty recently.
But we also saw how it can work for the taller team the first time the Tigers and Commodores matched up this season.
With Mark Mitchell expected to be fully ready to go - that was the whole point in not playing him Friday after all - I think he should be able to control the paint like we’ve seen from him a lot recently. Especially as he's going up against non-SEC bigs that are going to generally be a little weaker. Add in Josh Gray’s rebounding advantage with a four-inch height disparity against anyone he is boxing out, as well as Trent Pierce’s size advantage against anyone wearing a Drake jersey, and I think the Tigers are in a good spot.
2. It’ll also be interesting to see the Tigers match up with a non-SEC foe.
The end of the regular season looked pretty rough for Mizzou, but every team they played (except South Carolina which was a dominant win) ended up with a better seed than Drake.
Oklahoma ended up as a 9, Arkansas and Vanderbilt ended as 10s, Kentucky is a 3 and of course Florida is a 1.
Now, the Tigers are lining up against an opponent that hasn’t played a Quad 1 game since beating Kansas State at the Wildcat Classic on Dec. 17. The Bulldogs also won a Quad 1 game against Vanderbilt in the Charleston Classic on Nov. 24. Making them … 2-0 in Quad 1 games because no one else on the Bulldog schedule meets the mark.
They also only played four Quad 2 games, and granted, won all four. They beat Bradley, Illinois State and UNI on the road, all Quad 2, and beat Bradley again on a neutral court in the Missouri Valley Conference championship.
So, upside for Drake, the Bulldogs are undefeated in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, as well as having an 11-0 record in Quad 4 games.
The Tigers on the other hand went under .500 in Quad 1 games … and still won more Quad 1 games than Drake’s Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins combined (Mizzou went 7-11 in Quad 1 games).
And now that I’ve wrote Quad 1 and Quad 2 enough times to make my brain bleed, I feel like I should give an explanation of what they mean.
Quad 1 games are facing a team in the NET top 30 at home, top 50 at a neutral site or top 75 on the road.
Quad 2 games are facing the NET 31-75 at home, 51-100 at a neutral site and you 76-135 on the road.
Quad 3 is NET 76-160 at home, 101-200 at a neutral site and 135-240 on the road.
Then the rest is Quad 4.
So point being, the Tigers played a much, much, much tougher schedule than Drake did. The Bulldogs did well in their big opportunities, but the Tigers have played only two games that weren’t Quad 1 in the past two months.
I think getting to see them match up with a team that’s much closer to South Carolina in the NET rankings than it is to the Tigers should be an interesting change of pace (Drake is 56 in the NET, South Carolina is 87, the Tigers are No. 16).
3. Which brings me to some history talk.
Ending up with a 6 seed means the Tigers have officially become the best turnaround ever for a team that went winless in major conference play the year before.
Everyone has spent all season talking about how impressive the Tigers’ turnaround has been this year, and it has been.
We already had one metric to make it the best turnaround ever when the Tigers became the first power-conference team to finish above .500 in conference play the next year after going winless, but now they’ve got the next step in the process with the highest seed.
Which just leaves one left, the longest tournament run.
This one is easy enough to look up since the Tigers are just the third team to reach the tournament the year after going winless in conference play anyway.
The other two were the 1987-88 Maryland Terrapins, who ended as a No. 7 seed, and the 2021-22 Iowa State Cyclones, who were an 11 seed.
Maryland beat No. 10 UC Santa Barbara 92-82 in the first round, then lost to No. 2 Kentucky 90-81 in the round of 32.
Iowa State beat No. 6 LSU 59-54 in the first round, then beat No. 3 Wisconsin 54-49 in the round of 32 before losing to No. 10 Miami 70-56 in the Sweet 16.
Interestingly, something I think all the media guys might have looked over, do you want to guess who transferred away from Iowa State for the 2020-21 season when they went winless then transferred back for the 2021-22 season when they made their comeback? Caleb Grill.
If we get the chance to talk to him again, I’ll ask him about it. But two times a team that lost Grill went winless in conference play, then got him back and had one of the best turnarounds in NCAA basketball history.
Weird connection.
But, back to the point, the Tigers will have to at least make the Sweet 16 to match or beat every metric for the best turnaround in history. If they make it all the way to the Elite Eight, there’s no arguing about it anymore.
4. So, let’s talk about some expectations. Or hopes, I guess.
Judging by the Tigers’ history in the NCAA Tournament, I understand going in with apprehension.
It makes sense to build up a wall stopping you from feeling heartbroken again if the poor results you’ve seen again and again come back once more.
I’ve talked about pretty much this feeling before and as a Seattle Mariners fan, I get it. It’s a lot easier to accept failure if you start at a point of expecting it with the plan to be surprised with success.
And if that’s your plan for the week, I get it and I’m not going to tell you not to feel that way.
But, I would also say, I think the Tigers have a more-than-realistic shot to do something Mizzou hasn’t done in more than 15 years. I think it’s realistic to expect this team to make the second weekend.
It’s not going to be easy, clearly.
Drake is arguably the best 11 seed in the bracket. The other one that’s already set is VCU, which is another very good team, but not as good as Drake. The two play-ins are between (shockingly) North Carolina and San Diego State and Texas and Xavier. But the Bulldogs are the lowest-rated team in the group according to the NET. VCU is No. 31, North Carolina is No. 36, Texas is No. 39, Xavier is No. 45, San Diego State is No. 52 and Drake is No. 56.
Those play-ins are why I said arguably (and I would love to make another somewhat off-topic point that this is more what the play-ins should look like than the 16s. If you automatically qualify by winning your conference tournament, you should bypass the first four by default. Make it the bad UNC or Texas teams that rode the bubble throughout the season and make them play their way in. It means so much more to the small schools just to get to be there for the real tournament. But again, off topic, I’ll get back to it).
Is Drake a purely better team than Texas or North Carolina? Almost certainly not based on talent..
Is Drake on a seven-game winning streak and having won 18 of its final 19 games a tougher out than a Texas team that is 4-8 in its past 12 games?
Maybe.
So it’s not an easy first round.
And Texas Tech is a really good team that honestly, I don’t know that much about right now. Just being straight up with you guys. I’ll look more into them throughout the week, but I was essentially disconnected from the Big 12 this year.
And then that sets you up for one of kansas, Arkansas, Saint John’s or Omaha. None of those would be an easy win (except maybe Omaha, but if the Mavericks have already made the Sweet 16, who knows what they’re going to do).
Then the top half of the West is incredibly daunting.
None of this is easy, it’s March Madness, it shouldn’t be.
But I think believing in this year’s team, especially to make the second weekend, is pretty reasonable with how we’ve seen them play even against the best of the best in the SEC.
Now that they’re out of the SEC for at least two games and maybe more, getting your hopes up is OK.
5. Just a fun final thought, because Ben McCollum brought so many of his Northwest Missouri State guys with him going into this year, there’s a whole lot of local kids playing in Thursday’s matchup.
It’s not just Grill playing a home game, Tamar Bates, Mitchell and Aidan Shaw heading an hour and a half west past their home on the west side of the river in Kansas City, T.O. Barrett who’s family is about a 2:20 minute trip straight down I-35 and Pierce’s who are about 2:30 south and east in Tulsa.
But there’s also Drake’s Cam Manyawu from Kansas City, Isaiah Jackson from Independence, Tavion Banks from Kansas City, Eli Shetlar from Wichita, Kael Combs from Nixa, Bennett Stirtz from Liberty, Isaia Howard from Plattsburg, Joey Matteoni from Overland Park and Daniel Abreu from Springfield.
There are going to be more players who grew up within a five-hour drive from Wichita than not in this game. I find that fascinating. Add in that Drake also has two guys from Illinois and you’ve got a whole lot of representation from the surrounding states.
Softball Thought
1. The season didn’t start how the Tigers wanted, but it does seem like Mizzou is getting on track.
The Mizzou Invitational this weekend was about the weakest stretch of opponents the Tigers have played in a five-game stretch this season, but Missouri did what it needed to by cruising to a five-game winning streak.
And in that stretch, the Tigers did what coach Larissa Anderson was hoping for, got everything working all at the same time.
The offense averaged nearly 10 runs per game, the pitching allowed less than two runs per game, the defense played well and the Tigers got the chance to see a lot of players who don’t get a lot of time on the field.
Again, easy break in the schedule. South Dakota State, Princeton, Quinnipiac and Kansas City are about four of the easiest teams on the schedule this season, getting them all in a five-game stretch is why this was such a get-right opportunity.
There was also Michigan, which was a preseason top-25 team like the Tigers were and Missouri won that game 7-3.
So, the Tigers are back above .500 and on track to keep it going.
But now they go back to SEC play.
And that means Oklahoma is coming to town. First, they’ve got a midweek game against Illinois for Braggin’ Rights and Illinois Softball doesn’t really have an impressive win this season. So I think it’s reasonable to expect the Tiger win streak to extend to six games, but don’t be surprised if they follow that up with getting swept by Oklahoma.
And that means the Tigers will start 0-6 in SEC play … not great.
But after that is a Border War matchup and Ole Miss, which is one of the more beatable SEC teams and I think that’s another shot for the Tigers to get on track. Plus a midweek matchup with Missouri State after that.
This season hasn’t been as successful as the Tigers were hoping, but I think we’re in the midst of what could end up a 10-4 or even 11-3 stretch and that can do wonders heading to the back half of the season.
Question
What are your expectations for Thursday’s matchup? Could be on-court expectations for what will happen during the game, fan travel expectations, how full the arena will be, whatever. What do you expect to see, hear, experience from the Tigers and their opening-round game?
Today will mostly be NCAA Tournament thoughts since we finally know where the Tigers are headed.
Basketball Thoughts
1. How could we start anywhere else?
The Tigers are headed to Wichita for a matchup with the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday at 6:35 p.m.
Drake is good. My initial response when the draw was announced is it’s going to be a tough matchup, especially pairing the Tigers against former Northwest Missouri State coach Ben McCollum.
Drake hasn’t been bad in a while, but when Darian DeVries left for West Virginia, there were some questions about whether a DII powerhouse coach could make the jump to the next level.
Clearly, he can. And he’s already being mentioned for some power-conference jobs opening up this offseason.
But - and I’ll dive deeper into Drake through the week’s coverage leading up to the matchup (let me know if you guys are interested in Texas Tech/UNC-Wilmington stuff, too. I don’t want to jump any guns, but I also don’t want to end up without time to do the pre-game coverage you guys might be looking for) - there is a pretty big flaw the Tigers should be able to take advantage of with Drake.
No one on the roster is taller than 6-foot-8.
Now, don’t get too excited, no one who plays regularly for Vanderbilt is taller than 6-8 either and we saw how that can work for the shorter team pretty recently.
But we also saw how it can work for the taller team the first time the Tigers and Commodores matched up this season.
With Mark Mitchell expected to be fully ready to go - that was the whole point in not playing him Friday after all - I think he should be able to control the paint like we’ve seen from him a lot recently. Especially as he's going up against non-SEC bigs that are going to generally be a little weaker. Add in Josh Gray’s rebounding advantage with a four-inch height disparity against anyone he is boxing out, as well as Trent Pierce’s size advantage against anyone wearing a Drake jersey, and I think the Tigers are in a good spot.
2. It’ll also be interesting to see the Tigers match up with a non-SEC foe.
The end of the regular season looked pretty rough for Mizzou, but every team they played (except South Carolina which was a dominant win) ended up with a better seed than Drake.
Oklahoma ended up as a 9, Arkansas and Vanderbilt ended as 10s, Kentucky is a 3 and of course Florida is a 1.
Now, the Tigers are lining up against an opponent that hasn’t played a Quad 1 game since beating Kansas State at the Wildcat Classic on Dec. 17. The Bulldogs also won a Quad 1 game against Vanderbilt in the Charleston Classic on Nov. 24. Making them … 2-0 in Quad 1 games because no one else on the Bulldog schedule meets the mark.
They also only played four Quad 2 games, and granted, won all four. They beat Bradley, Illinois State and UNI on the road, all Quad 2, and beat Bradley again on a neutral court in the Missouri Valley Conference championship.
So, upside for Drake, the Bulldogs are undefeated in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, as well as having an 11-0 record in Quad 4 games.
The Tigers on the other hand went under .500 in Quad 1 games … and still won more Quad 1 games than Drake’s Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins combined (Mizzou went 7-11 in Quad 1 games).
And now that I’ve wrote Quad 1 and Quad 2 enough times to make my brain bleed, I feel like I should give an explanation of what they mean.
Quad 1 games are facing a team in the NET top 30 at home, top 50 at a neutral site or top 75 on the road.
Quad 2 games are facing the NET 31-75 at home, 51-100 at a neutral site and you 76-135 on the road.
Quad 3 is NET 76-160 at home, 101-200 at a neutral site and 135-240 on the road.
Then the rest is Quad 4.
So point being, the Tigers played a much, much, much tougher schedule than Drake did. The Bulldogs did well in their big opportunities, but the Tigers have played only two games that weren’t Quad 1 in the past two months.
I think getting to see them match up with a team that’s much closer to South Carolina in the NET rankings than it is to the Tigers should be an interesting change of pace (Drake is 56 in the NET, South Carolina is 87, the Tigers are No. 16).
3. Which brings me to some history talk.
Ending up with a 6 seed means the Tigers have officially become the best turnaround ever for a team that went winless in major conference play the year before.
Everyone has spent all season talking about how impressive the Tigers’ turnaround has been this year, and it has been.
We already had one metric to make it the best turnaround ever when the Tigers became the first power-conference team to finish above .500 in conference play the next year after going winless, but now they’ve got the next step in the process with the highest seed.
Which just leaves one left, the longest tournament run.
This one is easy enough to look up since the Tigers are just the third team to reach the tournament the year after going winless in conference play anyway.
The other two were the 1987-88 Maryland Terrapins, who ended as a No. 7 seed, and the 2021-22 Iowa State Cyclones, who were an 11 seed.
Maryland beat No. 10 UC Santa Barbara 92-82 in the first round, then lost to No. 2 Kentucky 90-81 in the round of 32.
Iowa State beat No. 6 LSU 59-54 in the first round, then beat No. 3 Wisconsin 54-49 in the round of 32 before losing to No. 10 Miami 70-56 in the Sweet 16.
Interestingly, something I think all the media guys might have looked over, do you want to guess who transferred away from Iowa State for the 2020-21 season when they went winless then transferred back for the 2021-22 season when they made their comeback? Caleb Grill.
If we get the chance to talk to him again, I’ll ask him about it. But two times a team that lost Grill went winless in conference play, then got him back and had one of the best turnarounds in NCAA basketball history.
Weird connection.
But, back to the point, the Tigers will have to at least make the Sweet 16 to match or beat every metric for the best turnaround in history. If they make it all the way to the Elite Eight, there’s no arguing about it anymore.
4. So, let’s talk about some expectations. Or hopes, I guess.
Judging by the Tigers’ history in the NCAA Tournament, I understand going in with apprehension.
It makes sense to build up a wall stopping you from feeling heartbroken again if the poor results you’ve seen again and again come back once more.
I’ve talked about pretty much this feeling before and as a Seattle Mariners fan, I get it. It’s a lot easier to accept failure if you start at a point of expecting it with the plan to be surprised with success.
And if that’s your plan for the week, I get it and I’m not going to tell you not to feel that way.
But, I would also say, I think the Tigers have a more-than-realistic shot to do something Mizzou hasn’t done in more than 15 years. I think it’s realistic to expect this team to make the second weekend.
It’s not going to be easy, clearly.
Drake is arguably the best 11 seed in the bracket. The other one that’s already set is VCU, which is another very good team, but not as good as Drake. The two play-ins are between (shockingly) North Carolina and San Diego State and Texas and Xavier. But the Bulldogs are the lowest-rated team in the group according to the NET. VCU is No. 31, North Carolina is No. 36, Texas is No. 39, Xavier is No. 45, San Diego State is No. 52 and Drake is No. 56.
Those play-ins are why I said arguably (and I would love to make another somewhat off-topic point that this is more what the play-ins should look like than the 16s. If you automatically qualify by winning your conference tournament, you should bypass the first four by default. Make it the bad UNC or Texas teams that rode the bubble throughout the season and make them play their way in. It means so much more to the small schools just to get to be there for the real tournament. But again, off topic, I’ll get back to it).
Is Drake a purely better team than Texas or North Carolina? Almost certainly not based on talent..
Is Drake on a seven-game winning streak and having won 18 of its final 19 games a tougher out than a Texas team that is 4-8 in its past 12 games?
Maybe.
So it’s not an easy first round.
And Texas Tech is a really good team that honestly, I don’t know that much about right now. Just being straight up with you guys. I’ll look more into them throughout the week, but I was essentially disconnected from the Big 12 this year.
And then that sets you up for one of kansas, Arkansas, Saint John’s or Omaha. None of those would be an easy win (except maybe Omaha, but if the Mavericks have already made the Sweet 16, who knows what they’re going to do).
Then the top half of the West is incredibly daunting.
None of this is easy, it’s March Madness, it shouldn’t be.
But I think believing in this year’s team, especially to make the second weekend, is pretty reasonable with how we’ve seen them play even against the best of the best in the SEC.
Now that they’re out of the SEC for at least two games and maybe more, getting your hopes up is OK.
5. Just a fun final thought, because Ben McCollum brought so many of his Northwest Missouri State guys with him going into this year, there’s a whole lot of local kids playing in Thursday’s matchup.
It’s not just Grill playing a home game, Tamar Bates, Mitchell and Aidan Shaw heading an hour and a half west past their home on the west side of the river in Kansas City, T.O. Barrett who’s family is about a 2:20 minute trip straight down I-35 and Pierce’s who are about 2:30 south and east in Tulsa.
But there’s also Drake’s Cam Manyawu from Kansas City, Isaiah Jackson from Independence, Tavion Banks from Kansas City, Eli Shetlar from Wichita, Kael Combs from Nixa, Bennett Stirtz from Liberty, Isaia Howard from Plattsburg, Joey Matteoni from Overland Park and Daniel Abreu from Springfield.
There are going to be more players who grew up within a five-hour drive from Wichita than not in this game. I find that fascinating. Add in that Drake also has two guys from Illinois and you’ve got a whole lot of representation from the surrounding states.
Softball Thought
1. The season didn’t start how the Tigers wanted, but it does seem like Mizzou is getting on track.
The Mizzou Invitational this weekend was about the weakest stretch of opponents the Tigers have played in a five-game stretch this season, but Missouri did what it needed to by cruising to a five-game winning streak.
And in that stretch, the Tigers did what coach Larissa Anderson was hoping for, got everything working all at the same time.
The offense averaged nearly 10 runs per game, the pitching allowed less than two runs per game, the defense played well and the Tigers got the chance to see a lot of players who don’t get a lot of time on the field.
Again, easy break in the schedule. South Dakota State, Princeton, Quinnipiac and Kansas City are about four of the easiest teams on the schedule this season, getting them all in a five-game stretch is why this was such a get-right opportunity.
There was also Michigan, which was a preseason top-25 team like the Tigers were and Missouri won that game 7-3.
So, the Tigers are back above .500 and on track to keep it going.
But now they go back to SEC play.
And that means Oklahoma is coming to town. First, they’ve got a midweek game against Illinois for Braggin’ Rights and Illinois Softball doesn’t really have an impressive win this season. So I think it’s reasonable to expect the Tiger win streak to extend to six games, but don’t be surprised if they follow that up with getting swept by Oklahoma.
And that means the Tigers will start 0-6 in SEC play … not great.
But after that is a Border War matchup and Ole Miss, which is one of the more beatable SEC teams and I think that’s another shot for the Tigers to get on track. Plus a midweek matchup with Missouri State after that.
This season hasn’t been as successful as the Tigers were hoping, but I think we’re in the midst of what could end up a 10-4 or even 11-3 stretch and that can do wonders heading to the back half of the season.
Question
What are your expectations for Thursday’s matchup? Could be on-court expectations for what will happen during the game, fan travel expectations, how full the arena will be, whatever. What do you expect to see, hear, experience from the Tigers and their opening-round game?
