Can Mizzou make a Tennessee like jump next year?
Cuonzo said that he expects to compete for an SEC title next year. Is that realistic?
Going into the 2017/18 season Tennessee was projected to finish 13th in the SEC following a 16-16 (8-10) season, 57th in KenPom. They returned 4 starters in Barnes 3rd year: Bone, Williams, Bowden, and Alexander and went on to post a 26-9 (13-5) record, 13th in KenPom.
Missouri is coming off a 15-17 (5-13) season, 70th in KenPom. They return 3 starters.
Going to make some comparisons with them as well as Auburn and Iowa State based on the win shares/40 metric.
Here’s how their win shares per 40 breakdown season to season (* indicates starters from the 16/17 season and I put the starters in 17/18 starters in bold). Notice the efficiency improvement between the two seasons
Tennessee
16/17 vs 17/18
*Grant Williams .165 .177 (+. 012 )
*Jordan Bowden .117 164 (+.047)
Admiral Schofield .127 .164 (+ .037)
Lamonte Turner .094 .162 (+.068)
*Kyle Alexander .108 .191 (+.083)
*Jordan Bone .064 .121 (+.057)
Added Grad Transfer James Daniel (Howard)
.133 .116 .158 .110 (Tennessee)
Lost *Robert Hubbs
.114
Average .047 win share/40 improvement for top 5 of their contributors
.568 - .817 (+.249) Total Efficiency Improvement of Starting 5 from 2016/17 to 17/18
Auburn
18-14 (7-11) 82 in KenPom, (2016/17)
26-8 (13-5), 23 in KenPom (2017/18)
16/17 vs 17/18
*Mustapha Heron .125 .149 (+.024)
*Daniel Purifoy 127 Suspended
*Jared Harper .123 .163 ( + .040)
Anfernee Mclemore .148 .193 (+ .045)
*Bryce Brown .082 .137 (+.055)
*Austin Wiley .095 Suspended
Horace Spencer .10 .15 (+.05)
Davion Mitchell .065
TJ Lang .081 .078 (-.003)
Added Okeke .160 (50th class of 2017)
Added Desean Murray .175 (transfer from Presbyterian)
Dunbar .079
Average .043 win share/40 improvement of 5 of their top contributors
.552 -.792 (+.240) Total efficiency improvement of starting 5
Iowa State
13-18, 4-14 17/18, 103 in Kenpom
23-11, 9-9 18/19, 16 in KenPom
17/18 vs 18/19
*Lard .148 .187 (+.039)
Weiler Babb .124 .125 (+.001)
*Jackson .083
*Wiggington .076 .156 (+.08)
*Solomon Young .098 .139 (+.041)
*Talley .056 .102 (+.046)
Added:
Shayok .111 .139 . 167 (Iowa State)
Jacobson (Nebraska) .134 .091 .188 (Iowa State)
Halliburton .152
Horton Tucker (66 ranked player) .120
Conditt .139
Lost:
Jackson
.041 average improvement of 5 of their top contributors
.461 - .734 total (+ .273) Total Efficiency improvement of starting 5
Mizzou 2018/19
*Mark Smith .160 (injury hurt efficiency numbers)
*Tilmon .122 ( Tilmon was .082 so +.04 from 2017/18)
Watson .073
Pinson .085
*Pickett .051 (injury hurt efficiency numbers)
Mitchell Smith .081 (Smith was.068 in 2015/16 +.013)
Nikko .098
Adding
Mario Mckinney
Tray Jackson
Dru Smith .208
Losing
Puryear .097 (.102 freshman .075 sophomore .107 junior)
Geist .158 (Geist went from .083 in 2016/17 to .121 in 2017/18 (+.038) then improved (+.037) his Senior year. Remarkable consistent trend which fits a pattern. For example Jordan Barnett went from .118 (16/17) to .153 (17/18) (+.038).
Those others teams averaged just over .40 improvement per key contributor.
This year Missouri starting 5 totaled .588
Missouri is adding Dru Smith (.208) at Evansville
Let’s say he drops off but those other guys improve what you’d hope and suspect based on the trends of these other teams. It might look something like this
Dru Smith .18
Mark Smith .20
Javon Pickett .10
Tray Jackson (other power forward) .10
Tilmon .16
Total: .740 of starting (total of .152 improvement, *less than those other teams mentioned). Other teams went well over .2
So Tennessee: .817
Auburn: .792
Iowa State: .734
FYI: Here’s how some of Mizzou other transfers have fared compared to their previous school. Previous school noted in parenthesis.
Kassius Robertson (Canisius)
.154 .071 .131 .141 (Missouri)
Keion Bell (Pepperdine)
.083 .093 .082 .171 (Missouri)
Earnest Ross (Auburn)
.049 .137 .138 (Missouri) .155 (Missouri)
Keith Shamburger
.101 (San Jose St) .085 (San Jose St) .115 (Hawaii) .090 (Missouri)
Jordan Clarkson (Tulsa)
.093 .157 .142 (Missouri)
Other Takeaways:
-We might too hung up on finding a key cog. I’d like to add a 3-5 who can rebound and score, or at least a guy who can spell Tilmon if (when) he gets in foul trouble. But the bigger issues are guys 1) staying in the program 2) continuing to improve 3) staying healthy
-Dru Smith will be a key contributor based on his advanced stats and the sentiment around the program. I think there’s a reason Cuonzo has said Dru Smith is as good as any guard in the country. Other transfers have performed comparatively to their previous school. It's ok to expect him to come in and perform at a high level. That's not unrealistic.
-Again just stay healthy. It’s been a brutal run with injuries.
Cuonzo said that he expects to compete for an SEC title next year. Is that realistic?
Going into the 2017/18 season Tennessee was projected to finish 13th in the SEC following a 16-16 (8-10) season, 57th in KenPom. They returned 4 starters in Barnes 3rd year: Bone, Williams, Bowden, and Alexander and went on to post a 26-9 (13-5) record, 13th in KenPom.
Missouri is coming off a 15-17 (5-13) season, 70th in KenPom. They return 3 starters.
Going to make some comparisons with them as well as Auburn and Iowa State based on the win shares/40 metric.
Here’s how their win shares per 40 breakdown season to season (* indicates starters from the 16/17 season and I put the starters in 17/18 starters in bold). Notice the efficiency improvement between the two seasons
Tennessee
16/17 vs 17/18
*Grant Williams .165 .177 (+. 012 )
*Jordan Bowden .117 164 (+.047)
Admiral Schofield .127 .164 (+ .037)
Lamonte Turner .094 .162 (+.068)
*Kyle Alexander .108 .191 (+.083)
*Jordan Bone .064 .121 (+.057)
Added Grad Transfer James Daniel (Howard)
.133 .116 .158 .110 (Tennessee)
Lost *Robert Hubbs
.114
Average .047 win share/40 improvement for top 5 of their contributors
.568 - .817 (+.249) Total Efficiency Improvement of Starting 5 from 2016/17 to 17/18
Auburn
18-14 (7-11) 82 in KenPom, (2016/17)
26-8 (13-5), 23 in KenPom (2017/18)
16/17 vs 17/18
*Mustapha Heron .125 .149 (+.024)
*Daniel Purifoy 127 Suspended
*Jared Harper .123 .163 ( + .040)
Anfernee Mclemore .148 .193 (+ .045)
*Bryce Brown .082 .137 (+.055)
*Austin Wiley .095 Suspended
Horace Spencer .10 .15 (+.05)
Davion Mitchell .065
TJ Lang .081 .078 (-.003)
Added Okeke .160 (50th class of 2017)
Added Desean Murray .175 (transfer from Presbyterian)
Dunbar .079
Average .043 win share/40 improvement of 5 of their top contributors
.552 -.792 (+.240) Total efficiency improvement of starting 5
Iowa State
13-18, 4-14 17/18, 103 in Kenpom
23-11, 9-9 18/19, 16 in KenPom
17/18 vs 18/19
*Lard .148 .187 (+.039)
Weiler Babb .124 .125 (+.001)
*Jackson .083
*Wiggington .076 .156 (+.08)
*Solomon Young .098 .139 (+.041)
*Talley .056 .102 (+.046)
Added:
Shayok .111 .139 . 167 (Iowa State)
Jacobson (Nebraska) .134 .091 .188 (Iowa State)
Halliburton .152
Horton Tucker (66 ranked player) .120
Conditt .139
Lost:
Jackson
.041 average improvement of 5 of their top contributors
.461 - .734 total (+ .273) Total Efficiency improvement of starting 5
Mizzou 2018/19
*Mark Smith .160 (injury hurt efficiency numbers)
*Tilmon .122 ( Tilmon was .082 so +.04 from 2017/18)
Watson .073
Pinson .085
*Pickett .051 (injury hurt efficiency numbers)
Mitchell Smith .081 (Smith was.068 in 2015/16 +.013)
Nikko .098
Adding
Mario Mckinney
Tray Jackson
Dru Smith .208
Losing
Puryear .097 (.102 freshman .075 sophomore .107 junior)
Geist .158 (Geist went from .083 in 2016/17 to .121 in 2017/18 (+.038) then improved (+.037) his Senior year. Remarkable consistent trend which fits a pattern. For example Jordan Barnett went from .118 (16/17) to .153 (17/18) (+.038).
Those others teams averaged just over .40 improvement per key contributor.
This year Missouri starting 5 totaled .588
Missouri is adding Dru Smith (.208) at Evansville
Let’s say he drops off but those other guys improve what you’d hope and suspect based on the trends of these other teams. It might look something like this
Dru Smith .18
Mark Smith .20
Javon Pickett .10
Tray Jackson (other power forward) .10
Tilmon .16
Total: .740 of starting (total of .152 improvement, *less than those other teams mentioned). Other teams went well over .2
So Tennessee: .817
Auburn: .792
Iowa State: .734
FYI: Here’s how some of Mizzou other transfers have fared compared to their previous school. Previous school noted in parenthesis.
Kassius Robertson (Canisius)
.154 .071 .131 .141 (Missouri)
Keion Bell (Pepperdine)
.083 .093 .082 .171 (Missouri)
Earnest Ross (Auburn)
.049 .137 .138 (Missouri) .155 (Missouri)
Keith Shamburger
.101 (San Jose St) .085 (San Jose St) .115 (Hawaii) .090 (Missouri)
Jordan Clarkson (Tulsa)
.093 .157 .142 (Missouri)
Other Takeaways:
-We might too hung up on finding a key cog. I’d like to add a 3-5 who can rebound and score, or at least a guy who can spell Tilmon if (when) he gets in foul trouble. But the bigger issues are guys 1) staying in the program 2) continuing to improve 3) staying healthy
-Dru Smith will be a key contributor based on his advanced stats and the sentiment around the program. I think there’s a reason Cuonzo has said Dru Smith is as good as any guard in the country. Other transfers have performed comparatively to their previous school. It's ok to expect him to come in and perform at a high level. That's not unrealistic.
-Again just stay healthy. It’s been a brutal run with injuries.
