I heard a spot where they were discussing Biden’s lead in swing states is less than what Hillary’s was in 16. The Dems point was that Trump has done such a terrible job on Covid 19 and that people like Joe Biden better than Hillary, and Trump has lost his appeal.
1) I know that both Dems and media have done a 24/7 hit job blaming Trump exclusively for Coronavirus. It may be that simple . Biden hides, uses his mask as a prop, throws shade on a world shattering time for developing a vaccine and walks into the Whitehouse, then takes credit for the vaccine and therapeutics that are saving lives before he takes office.
2) it is possible that the election is simply a referendum on trump and not a choice and in that narrative the Dems claim, the polls are accurate because it is just about Trump, many of his 2016 followers have got off the bus and that opinion will not change.
My counter to these would be. It seems to me that while Hillary had her detractors; she had much more fervent backers than Biden. Her negatives were higher but her enthusiastic supporters were higher.
On Election Day a lot of turnout depends on how excited you are about a candidate. I don’t see any enthusiasm for Biden of his own. That little act of swinging his arms for 4 or 5 steps on the way to the podium is as rehearsed as his mask prop use. He doesn’t really change his forward speed but he believes that arm movement and pretense of jogging makes him look fresh and vibrant. I doubt it. So if those numbers are more reliable than 2016 it’s simply people settled on getting rid of trump.
Throughout this campaign a constant has been that Trump is more trusted on who can do better on economy. I don’t know it it were as universally believed during 2016 race. If economy is in large measure what Biden is saying he is going to fix with higher taxes, why would not he ever lead in improving the economy?
Until now in the history of elections a question of ones personal economic circumstances carries inordinate weight. By a huge margin people say they are better off than they were 4 years ago..in spite of Covid. That wasn’t an advantage for either in 2016. People usually vote their pocketbooks.
There are some local issues in these states perhaps in play that were not present or at least to current degree seen as important.
People in Pennsylvania have had 4 years of a great economy and know how much Fracking and handling gas has added to the economy. No way they trust Biden’s post nomination conversion.
Arizona, there are many people terrified of open borders and free healthcare for those coming across. Many would see their communities overrun, and many Hispanics share that feeling.
Michigan, I believe though polls don’t show it there is great fatigue with Whitmer’s lockdowns and her hypocrisy.
Trafalgar polls, not as well known but only one to get it right in 2016 has a methodology I believe more effective. The normal poll when they get in touch with you is 25 or 30 questions and takes forever to complete. The fervent left and fervent right are more likely to spend the time. Those with busy lives not so much. Trafalgar has only 8 or 9 questions, some designed to determine if you are truthfully answering. Trafalgar has Trump up in Michigan, Az and Pennsylvania. I further believe that many cannot help themselves from asking in these polls do you prefer a democrat or a republican congress. Do you think Trump killed your grandmother.etc.
So in a couple weeks we shall see and I won’t be surprised either way, We do know one thing apparently. Since Biden has nothing to offer other than “Trump bad on coronavirus “, we know that he would certainly have lost without the China Virus and we need to manage our expectations as he reverses course on successful policy, after ironically the China virus will have been been effectively rendered harmless under Trump’s handling.
1) I know that both Dems and media have done a 24/7 hit job blaming Trump exclusively for Coronavirus. It may be that simple . Biden hides, uses his mask as a prop, throws shade on a world shattering time for developing a vaccine and walks into the Whitehouse, then takes credit for the vaccine and therapeutics that are saving lives before he takes office.
2) it is possible that the election is simply a referendum on trump and not a choice and in that narrative the Dems claim, the polls are accurate because it is just about Trump, many of his 2016 followers have got off the bus and that opinion will not change.
My counter to these would be. It seems to me that while Hillary had her detractors; she had much more fervent backers than Biden. Her negatives were higher but her enthusiastic supporters were higher.
On Election Day a lot of turnout depends on how excited you are about a candidate. I don’t see any enthusiasm for Biden of his own. That little act of swinging his arms for 4 or 5 steps on the way to the podium is as rehearsed as his mask prop use. He doesn’t really change his forward speed but he believes that arm movement and pretense of jogging makes him look fresh and vibrant. I doubt it. So if those numbers are more reliable than 2016 it’s simply people settled on getting rid of trump.
Throughout this campaign a constant has been that Trump is more trusted on who can do better on economy. I don’t know it it were as universally believed during 2016 race. If economy is in large measure what Biden is saying he is going to fix with higher taxes, why would not he ever lead in improving the economy?
Until now in the history of elections a question of ones personal economic circumstances carries inordinate weight. By a huge margin people say they are better off than they were 4 years ago..in spite of Covid. That wasn’t an advantage for either in 2016. People usually vote their pocketbooks.
There are some local issues in these states perhaps in play that were not present or at least to current degree seen as important.
People in Pennsylvania have had 4 years of a great economy and know how much Fracking and handling gas has added to the economy. No way they trust Biden’s post nomination conversion.
Arizona, there are many people terrified of open borders and free healthcare for those coming across. Many would see their communities overrun, and many Hispanics share that feeling.
Michigan, I believe though polls don’t show it there is great fatigue with Whitmer’s lockdowns and her hypocrisy.
Trafalgar polls, not as well known but only one to get it right in 2016 has a methodology I believe more effective. The normal poll when they get in touch with you is 25 or 30 questions and takes forever to complete. The fervent left and fervent right are more likely to spend the time. Those with busy lives not so much. Trafalgar has only 8 or 9 questions, some designed to determine if you are truthfully answering. Trafalgar has Trump up in Michigan, Az and Pennsylvania. I further believe that many cannot help themselves from asking in these polls do you prefer a democrat or a republican congress. Do you think Trump killed your grandmother.etc.
So in a couple weeks we shall see and I won’t be surprised either way, We do know one thing apparently. Since Biden has nothing to offer other than “Trump bad on coronavirus “, we know that he would certainly have lost without the China Virus and we need to manage our expectations as he reverses course on successful policy, after ironically the China virus will have been been effectively rendered harmless under Trump’s handling.
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