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BASKETBALL Halftime Thoughts: Tennessee 38, Mizzou 25

mitchell4d

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That was ugly. The one thing Mizzou really couldn’t afford to do in this matchup was fall behind early. Tennessee can slow the game down and plays great defense, so a 15-point hole feels more like 25. And Mizzou can’t shoot from the perimeter, which is the easiest way to erase a big deficit. Of course, that’s exactly what happened. Tennessee made its first seven field goals. The Vols didn’t miss a shot until more than seven minutes into the game. Meanwhile, Mizzou started 2-11. The Tigers had a nearly six-minute scoring drought, and by the end of it they trailed 21-4. Since that point, they’ve played decent, but you obviously can’t just overlook a run like that. I’ll be honest, I don’t really see a way Mizzou makes this game close again short of someone catching fire from three, which seems unlikely given what we’ve seen the past two years.

Not all of the slow start was due to Mizzou playing poorly. Tennessee’s defense is elite. It’s legitimately kind of fun to watch. The Vols don’t give up anything easy. Every time a Mizzou player got the ball inside, he seemed to have at least four hands in his face. According to the official stats, Missouri is shooting 4-11 on layups, but only one of those misses was really an open look. The Vols have also forced nine turnovers. The problem for Missouri is that the easiest way to attack this defense appears to be to shoot over it, and no one for the Tigers can shoot. Missouri is 1-7 from three and most of the misses weren’t close. That obviously needs to change in a hurry if they’re going to have a chance. Part of that has been shot selection. Xavier Pinson took two ill-advised threes and Parker Braun tried a contested one that missed badly. Two of those misses led to points on the other end. But Mizzou has missed a couple open looks, too. Mark Smith, the one guy you feel pretty good about shooting from outside, has to find a way to get open and make an impact on this game.

The other thing that really impressed me about Tennessee was they had a clear game plan and executed it early. They emphasized sagging off Mizzou’s shooters and giving up nothing easy near the basket (a no-brainer against this team by now). They also clearly saw the mid-range as an area they could exploit, which contributed to their hot shooting start. And they mixed in a full-court press that proved effective. Missouri, on the other hand, almost looked shell-shocked by Tennessee’s defense.

Quick stats updates: Tennessee is shooting 53.8 percent from the field, 3-4 from three. Mizzou is shooting 31.8 percent overall, 1-7 from deep. Tennessee has 18 rebounds to Mizzou’s 14 and has scored five second-chance points to none for Mizzou. The turnover numbers are about equal (eight for Tennessee, nine for Mizzou) but Tennessee has scored 13 points off those takeaways compared to five by Mizzou. That pretty clearly shows who has been the better team in the first 20 minutes. The one thing Missouri has done pretty effectively is get to the free throw line, but they’ve missed some opportunities there, shooting 10-15 from the line.
 
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