Okay, so the Boyd thread got me started looking at high-profile players in the state and Missouri's history.
The parameters were simple: I searched for four and five star players from Missouri who had Missouri offers and where they went. I broke them down into St. Louis (and surrounding area), Kansas City (and surrounding area) and other (anywhere else). Now, some may take issue with what I called part of STL or KC and what I didn't (for example, Harrisonville, Lee's Summit, Smithville, Ray-Pec are included as part of KC/Festus, Eureka, St. Peter's were included as part of STL).
Anyway, in the Rivals era (2002-present, there have been 64 four- or five-stars from Missouri with Missouri offers (some of them, like Nick Ramirez or Keeston Terry, didn't technically have Mizzou offers by signing day, but all I went by was what our database said). I've separated the 2017 and 2018 classes since they've not signed at this point in time. That left 57 such players. Anyway, here's what I found:
St. Louis: 21 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
9 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 42.85%
Kansas City: 18 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
8 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 44.44%
Other: 18 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
10 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 55.55%
TOTAL: 57 4/5star players with Mizzou offers
27 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 47.36%
2017/18 classes: 7 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
1 committed to Mizzou
2 committed elswehere
4 undecided
So the numbers in Kansas City and St. Louis are virtually identical. STL has produced three more 4/5 star prospects and one more Mizzou signee. The Tigers have had more success will players NOT from either major city. And that does make sense. More schools recruiting St. Louis and Kansas City than they would the outlying areas and those kids are likely to have more options.
In addition, the people in St. Louis and Kansas City likely have more diverse loyalties and come from more places than some of the more rural areas of the state. To put it bluntly, the smaller towns and outlying areas probably have more die-hard Mizzou fans than KC or STL does.
Overall, Missouri signs just under half of the "elite" talent in the state. Obviously this "study" ignores guys like Chase Coffman, Martin Rucker and other in-state three-stars who went on to play like four- and five-stars. But you have to make the cutoff somewhere. There's generally more angst and attention on the four-star or five-star guy so that's where I made the cutoff.
You can argue, if you'd like, that number is too low. I'm not sure how it compares to other states. But that's the number. And St. Louis and Kansas City are right around that overall percentage. Slightly below, but if just one more player over 13 years from either city had signed with Mizzou, suddenly that city is actually above the average. So there is a lot of hand-wringing every time a St. Louis kid goes elsewhere. But the reality is, it's neither much more nor much less likely than anywhere else in the state.
The parameters were simple: I searched for four and five star players from Missouri who had Missouri offers and where they went. I broke them down into St. Louis (and surrounding area), Kansas City (and surrounding area) and other (anywhere else). Now, some may take issue with what I called part of STL or KC and what I didn't (for example, Harrisonville, Lee's Summit, Smithville, Ray-Pec are included as part of KC/Festus, Eureka, St. Peter's were included as part of STL).
Anyway, in the Rivals era (2002-present, there have been 64 four- or five-stars from Missouri with Missouri offers (some of them, like Nick Ramirez or Keeston Terry, didn't technically have Mizzou offers by signing day, but all I went by was what our database said). I've separated the 2017 and 2018 classes since they've not signed at this point in time. That left 57 such players. Anyway, here's what I found:
St. Louis: 21 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
9 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 42.85%
Kansas City: 18 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
8 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 44.44%
Other: 18 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
10 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 55.55%
TOTAL: 57 4/5star players with Mizzou offers
27 signed with Mizzou
Percentage: 47.36%
2017/18 classes: 7 4/5 star players with Mizzou offers
1 committed to Mizzou
2 committed elswehere
4 undecided
So the numbers in Kansas City and St. Louis are virtually identical. STL has produced three more 4/5 star prospects and one more Mizzou signee. The Tigers have had more success will players NOT from either major city. And that does make sense. More schools recruiting St. Louis and Kansas City than they would the outlying areas and those kids are likely to have more options.
In addition, the people in St. Louis and Kansas City likely have more diverse loyalties and come from more places than some of the more rural areas of the state. To put it bluntly, the smaller towns and outlying areas probably have more die-hard Mizzou fans than KC or STL does.
Overall, Missouri signs just under half of the "elite" talent in the state. Obviously this "study" ignores guys like Chase Coffman, Martin Rucker and other in-state three-stars who went on to play like four- and five-stars. But you have to make the cutoff somewhere. There's generally more angst and attention on the four-star or five-star guy so that's where I made the cutoff.
You can argue, if you'd like, that number is too low. I'm not sure how it compares to other states. But that's the number. And St. Louis and Kansas City are right around that overall percentage. Slightly below, but if just one more player over 13 years from either city had signed with Mizzou, suddenly that city is actually above the average. So there is a lot of hand-wringing every time a St. Louis kid goes elsewhere. But the reality is, it's neither much more nor much less likely than anywhere else in the state.
