Well folks, school’s out, the NBA Finals are over and I am no longer able to walk the short distance from my apartment to my car without breaking out into a dripping sweat, which means it is officially one of my favorite times of the year: draft season.
I’ve been an NBA draftnik for about a decade and a half. I always find it really interesting which players are able to translate from the college level to the pros and, more importantly, which guys these teams invest millions of dollars into just for them to flame out after a few years (*glares at Luka Samanic*). So, with the draft coming up soon, I knew I wanted to have some sort of angle related to it for this week’s column.
The issue is, Mizzou doesn’t really have any guys who are going to get drafted this year. Sean East II has the best chance among the graduated Tigers to wind up on an NBA roster, but it’s more likely he’ll get there by impressing teams as an undrafted free agent, similar to how D’Moi Hodge did last year. (I’m also planning to do a more in-depth story about East’s draft process in the near future.)
Instead, the idea I came up with was to do NBA player comps for Missouri’s current upperclassmen. A few things to note here:
1. I only did these for the upperclassmen. I know some of the younger guys like Annor Boateng could have the best odds of anyone on the roster to get drafted someday, but I don’t feel like I’ve seen enough of the freshmen or sophomores to come up with accurate comparisons. Do you feel like you know for sure what type of player Trent Pierce is? He apparently played 137 minutes last season and I can’t hardly remember any of them.
2. This is NOT me saying I think Mizzou’s players are going to be every bit as good as the ones I’m comparing them to. It’s more just that I see similarities in how they play. Kevin O’Connor from The Ringer uses the term “shades of” when he makes player comps and I think that’s the best way to put it.
Without further ado…
Tamar Bates - Tim Hardaway Jr.
Bates is obviously a gifted scorer and nearly made it to the 50/40/90 club with his shooting percentages last season but he isn’t necessarily a high-volume guy unless he absolutely has to be. Hardaway made sense in that he’s carved out a role playing off a pair of ball-dominant guards and has been a good shooter throughout most of his career. Their usage rates were within 1% of each other this past season and Hardaway’s stat line (14.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game) was pretty similar to Bates’ as well (13.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists). Bates would need to shoot more often, gain muscle and improve on the defensive end to reach Hardaway’s level but that’s not an unreachable ceiling for him. Making it to the NCAA championship game like Hardaway did with Michigan wouldn’t hurt, either.
Jacob Crews - Cameron Johnson
There are a few parallels between Crews and Johnson that stood out to me. They’re listed at the exact same height and weight at 6-foot-8 and 210 pounds. They’re both late bloomers, each of them having breakout seasons as juniors and seniors. And they both shoot the leather off the ball. The difference is that Johnson played all five of his seasons for high majors whereas Crews has only done it at the mid-major and junior college level. I’d still expect Crews to have close to the same role that Johnson did during his two seasons at North Carolina as a perpetual threat from beyond the arc that stretches out defenses.
Josh Gray - DeAndre Jordan
I want to reiterate here: I do NOT expect Gray to become a future NBA All-Star. He is nowhere near as athletic as Jordan is/was, isn’t going to be used hardly as much in pick-and-rolls, isn’t the same caliber defender. Jordan was a one-and-done prospect and Gray is going into his fifth season of college basketball. But hear me out. According to KenPom, during the 2007-08 season playing for Texas A&M, Jordan pulled down 22.3% of available defensive rebounds, 11.6% of available offensive boards and rejected 6.5% of opponents’ shots while he was on the floor. Last year, in a smaller role at South Carolina, Gray had a defensive rebounding rate of 22.9%, an offensive rebounding rate of 10.5% and a block rate of 6.1%. Jordan averaged 7.9 points, 6.0 boards and 1.3 blocks in 20.1 minutes per game during his lone year with the Aggies. If Gray can put up anything close to that line next season, he’ll be impactful for the Tigers.
Caleb Grill - Bruce Brown
I think the biggest positive of both players is that they don’t need the ball in their hands to be winning players. Brown and Grill are both strong enough to defend players much larger than themselves. They’re both very good rebounders for their positions (shoot, Grill led MU with 5.8 boards per game). And on the right day, they can catch fire from outside and punish opposing teams for leaving them open. Brown’s parlayed his skills into becoming an NBA champion as a starter with the Denver Nuggets in 2023. Grill was due to play big minutes for Mizzou before suffering a season-ending wrist injury nine games into the season. They’ll need him healthy this year.
Mark Mitchell - Aaron Gordon
Mitchell was a guy that was a bit tough to nail down. He’s kind of got the skillset of a big wing but the size of a small center. He’s somewhere in between Jae Crowder and Kobe Brown. He’s not as athletic as Gordon — I don’t expect Mitchell to be jumping over Truman the Tiger spinning on a hoverboard in a dunk contest anytime soon — but I think they both bring an edge defensively. Both guys are quick enough to keep up with guards on the perimeter and bulky enough to bang with posts inside. Gordon’s been a below-average shooter for almost the entirety of his career, but it’s never kept him from constantly attacking the rim. I don’t think it’ll be much of an issue for Mitchell, either.
Tony Perkins - Markelle Fultz
Perkins is probably closer to the version of Fultz whose jumper was altered after a shoulder injury rather than the version of him who got drafted with the No. 1 pick out of Washington. But the rest of their games are rounded out really well. Perkins doesn’t have quite the same defensive intensity that Fultz does, but at least has the same type of frame to theoretically switch across multiple positions. They’re both sharp playmakers, can get downhill fairly easily and crash the glass decently well for their position. Fultz has been a steady hand for the Orlando Magic the last few seasons, Missouri will hope Perkins can be the same.
Aidan Shaw - Derrick Jones Jr.
How can you not like Jones? The guy more or less got forced to go pro after the ACT testing service threw out his score and the NCAA deemed him ineligible with three games left in UNLV’s 2015-16 season. Jones went undrafted and missed Summer League due to an injury but still wound up earning a roster spot with the Phoenix Suns after a training camp tryout. He just finished his eighth year in the league, getting a little bit better every season despite never staying in any one place for too long, and played serious minutes for the Dallas Mavericks in their playoff run to the Finals. Jones is the blueprint for Shaw — an athletic freak who’s learned how to put his tools to good use and has slowly but surely developed a reliable jumpshot.
Marques Warrick - Jordan Clarkson
You’ll recall that Clarkson spent his first two college seasons at Tulsa, became a prolific scorer and All-Conference USA selection with the Golden Eagles, transferred to Mizzou, was every bit as good with the Tigers, got drafted in the second round in 2014 and has been a walking bucket in the NBA ever since? Warrick’s stepping into a similar situation. He’s been one of the Horizon League’s best players since he was a freshman, has become the nation’s active leading scorer and now gets a chance to show he can be the same guy at a high major. Warrick is smaller than Clarkson and isn’t as good of a facilitator. Clarkson also had a redshirt year after transferring to prepare for SEC play — Warrick will have to make the adjustment right away. But I think Warrick will find the hoop plenty this season.
I’ve been an NBA draftnik for about a decade and a half. I always find it really interesting which players are able to translate from the college level to the pros and, more importantly, which guys these teams invest millions of dollars into just for them to flame out after a few years (*glares at Luka Samanic*). So, with the draft coming up soon, I knew I wanted to have some sort of angle related to it for this week’s column.
The issue is, Mizzou doesn’t really have any guys who are going to get drafted this year. Sean East II has the best chance among the graduated Tigers to wind up on an NBA roster, but it’s more likely he’ll get there by impressing teams as an undrafted free agent, similar to how D’Moi Hodge did last year. (I’m also planning to do a more in-depth story about East’s draft process in the near future.)
Instead, the idea I came up with was to do NBA player comps for Missouri’s current upperclassmen. A few things to note here:
1. I only did these for the upperclassmen. I know some of the younger guys like Annor Boateng could have the best odds of anyone on the roster to get drafted someday, but I don’t feel like I’ve seen enough of the freshmen or sophomores to come up with accurate comparisons. Do you feel like you know for sure what type of player Trent Pierce is? He apparently played 137 minutes last season and I can’t hardly remember any of them.
2. This is NOT me saying I think Mizzou’s players are going to be every bit as good as the ones I’m comparing them to. It’s more just that I see similarities in how they play. Kevin O’Connor from The Ringer uses the term “shades of” when he makes player comps and I think that’s the best way to put it.
Without further ado…
Tamar Bates - Tim Hardaway Jr.
Bates is obviously a gifted scorer and nearly made it to the 50/40/90 club with his shooting percentages last season but he isn’t necessarily a high-volume guy unless he absolutely has to be. Hardaway made sense in that he’s carved out a role playing off a pair of ball-dominant guards and has been a good shooter throughout most of his career. Their usage rates were within 1% of each other this past season and Hardaway’s stat line (14.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game) was pretty similar to Bates’ as well (13.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists). Bates would need to shoot more often, gain muscle and improve on the defensive end to reach Hardaway’s level but that’s not an unreachable ceiling for him. Making it to the NCAA championship game like Hardaway did with Michigan wouldn’t hurt, either.
Jacob Crews - Cameron Johnson
There are a few parallels between Crews and Johnson that stood out to me. They’re listed at the exact same height and weight at 6-foot-8 and 210 pounds. They’re both late bloomers, each of them having breakout seasons as juniors and seniors. And they both shoot the leather off the ball. The difference is that Johnson played all five of his seasons for high majors whereas Crews has only done it at the mid-major and junior college level. I’d still expect Crews to have close to the same role that Johnson did during his two seasons at North Carolina as a perpetual threat from beyond the arc that stretches out defenses.
Josh Gray - DeAndre Jordan
I want to reiterate here: I do NOT expect Gray to become a future NBA All-Star. He is nowhere near as athletic as Jordan is/was, isn’t going to be used hardly as much in pick-and-rolls, isn’t the same caliber defender. Jordan was a one-and-done prospect and Gray is going into his fifth season of college basketball. But hear me out. According to KenPom, during the 2007-08 season playing for Texas A&M, Jordan pulled down 22.3% of available defensive rebounds, 11.6% of available offensive boards and rejected 6.5% of opponents’ shots while he was on the floor. Last year, in a smaller role at South Carolina, Gray had a defensive rebounding rate of 22.9%, an offensive rebounding rate of 10.5% and a block rate of 6.1%. Jordan averaged 7.9 points, 6.0 boards and 1.3 blocks in 20.1 minutes per game during his lone year with the Aggies. If Gray can put up anything close to that line next season, he’ll be impactful for the Tigers.
Caleb Grill - Bruce Brown
I think the biggest positive of both players is that they don’t need the ball in their hands to be winning players. Brown and Grill are both strong enough to defend players much larger than themselves. They’re both very good rebounders for their positions (shoot, Grill led MU with 5.8 boards per game). And on the right day, they can catch fire from outside and punish opposing teams for leaving them open. Brown’s parlayed his skills into becoming an NBA champion as a starter with the Denver Nuggets in 2023. Grill was due to play big minutes for Mizzou before suffering a season-ending wrist injury nine games into the season. They’ll need him healthy this year.
Mark Mitchell - Aaron Gordon
Mitchell was a guy that was a bit tough to nail down. He’s kind of got the skillset of a big wing but the size of a small center. He’s somewhere in between Jae Crowder and Kobe Brown. He’s not as athletic as Gordon — I don’t expect Mitchell to be jumping over Truman the Tiger spinning on a hoverboard in a dunk contest anytime soon — but I think they both bring an edge defensively. Both guys are quick enough to keep up with guards on the perimeter and bulky enough to bang with posts inside. Gordon’s been a below-average shooter for almost the entirety of his career, but it’s never kept him from constantly attacking the rim. I don’t think it’ll be much of an issue for Mitchell, either.
Tony Perkins - Markelle Fultz
Perkins is probably closer to the version of Fultz whose jumper was altered after a shoulder injury rather than the version of him who got drafted with the No. 1 pick out of Washington. But the rest of their games are rounded out really well. Perkins doesn’t have quite the same defensive intensity that Fultz does, but at least has the same type of frame to theoretically switch across multiple positions. They’re both sharp playmakers, can get downhill fairly easily and crash the glass decently well for their position. Fultz has been a steady hand for the Orlando Magic the last few seasons, Missouri will hope Perkins can be the same.
Aidan Shaw - Derrick Jones Jr.
How can you not like Jones? The guy more or less got forced to go pro after the ACT testing service threw out his score and the NCAA deemed him ineligible with three games left in UNLV’s 2015-16 season. Jones went undrafted and missed Summer League due to an injury but still wound up earning a roster spot with the Phoenix Suns after a training camp tryout. He just finished his eighth year in the league, getting a little bit better every season despite never staying in any one place for too long, and played serious minutes for the Dallas Mavericks in their playoff run to the Finals. Jones is the blueprint for Shaw — an athletic freak who’s learned how to put his tools to good use and has slowly but surely developed a reliable jumpshot.
Marques Warrick - Jordan Clarkson
You’ll recall that Clarkson spent his first two college seasons at Tulsa, became a prolific scorer and All-Conference USA selection with the Golden Eagles, transferred to Mizzou, was every bit as good with the Tigers, got drafted in the second round in 2014 and has been a walking bucket in the NBA ever since? Warrick’s stepping into a similar situation. He’s been one of the Horizon League’s best players since he was a freshman, has become the nation’s active leading scorer and now gets a chance to show he can be the same guy at a high major. Warrick is smaller than Clarkson and isn’t as good of a facilitator. Clarkson also had a redshirt year after transferring to prepare for SEC play — Warrick will have to make the adjustment right away. But I think Warrick will find the hoop plenty this season.
