(I'm traveling tomorrow, so wanted to go ahead and get this out early to y'all.)
It’s been a calendar year, so it’s difficult to remember and I don’t fault anyone for forgetting. But Missouri was worse through its first couple of games last season than the 2023-24 team has been in these past few weeks.
It’s easy to recall what the Tigers looked like in March: Kobe Brown was a certified star. D’Moi Hodge was a sniper from deep and one of the peskiest defenders in school history. DeAndre Gholston provided a sturdy third option if Brown and/or Hodge couldn’t get going. It was a team that scored 79 points against the No. 1 defense in the country in Tennessee during the SEC tournament. It was a team that beat Utah State — a program that was favored by 1.5 points by oddsmakers and ranked higher in the NET, KenPom and Bart Torvik — by 11 in the first round of the Big Dance.
It was a unit that was also a finished product. Mizzou wasn’t playing anywhere near that level when it set off in November. The black and gold nearly gave up a 20-point lead in the final 4:47 of its 97-91 win over Southern Indiana. The Tigers were tied with Penn at halftime in their second game, 43-43, before pulling away just enough in the second period for a 92-85 victory. It wasn’t until the team’s third game against Lindenwood that it won by double digits, 82-53.
No one had truly settled into their roles by that point, either. Brown scored 20 points against USI, then eight against Penn, then 13 against Lindenwood. Hodge had one steal in the opener, three in the next game, then none against the Lions — he shot 6-21 from the 3-point line over the stretch. Gholston saw his minutes go from 22 to 15 to 18 and later lost his starting spot.
We know how it turned out for all three of them. But at the time, no one was predicting Brown to be a future first-round NBA Draft pick, or Hodge to break the single-season steals record and hit 100 treys, or Gholston to bail the black and gold out as many times as he did. It took time for head coach Dennis Gates to find the right lineup combinations and clearly define what each player’s role was going to be.
It’s unfair to have less patience with this year’s squad, especially with Colorado State transfer guard John Tonje and Oral Roberts transfer center Connor Vanover, who both figure to be key contributors, unavailable for most or all of Missouri’s first three outings. Fans are well within their rights to be critical of the team’s shooting performance against Memphis in which Mizzou made just 6-28 of its triples. But it’s wrong to think this early on that it’s an indication of how the team will shoot every game. Was the Tigers’ 7-28 shooting performance against Southern Indiana an indicator last year? Or how about their 8-26 night against Lindenwood?
Figuring out the right rotations means a lot of trial and error. There seemed to be a lot of hand-wringing over Gates playing Kaleb Brown and Mabor Majak during the first half of the Memphis game, but Mizzou didn’t lose because he gave them all of four minutes. If Kaleb made the type of strides that Gates said he did, calling him the “most improved” player of the offseason, why shouldn’t the head coach check to see what he can do against a quality opponent? What’s wrong with Majak getting spot minutes while Vanover sits out? It's harmless.
Tinkering with the lineups has already led to some promising developments. I, for one, didn’t necessarily see freshmen Anthony Robinson II or Jordan Butler making a significant impact this year. But they both played important roles in extended minutes in Mizzou’s win over SIU Edwardsville on Monday. That’ll go a long way in building trust with Gates, perhaps giving him more options than he realized he had.
Remember, too: this year’s team is supposed to be deeper than last year’s. That means there are more lineups to cycle through and test out before settling in on a regular rotation. There have been times it’s looked clunky, but that’s to be expected for a team with as many newcomers as MU does who are still learning how to play with each other. It’s not an issue that’s unique to the Tigers, either, as offenses across the nation have been less productive a week and a half into the season. The average offensive rating among NCAA Division I schools last year was 104.8 points per 100 possessions — so far this season, it’s dropped to 102.5 (Missouri’s offensive rating is well above it at 108.6).
The Tigers’ margins of victory have been wider so far this season despite the opponents being tougher than last year’s. If you want to nit-pick and say they should’ve won by even more, keep in mind that the one-time exception transfer rule has narrowed the gap between high majors and the rest of the country. Thirty-point blowouts are harder to come by and upsets are becoming more common. Several SEC schools have had their hands full going up against mid-majors through the first week and a half of the season. Here are a few examples:
Missouri hasn’t made any season-wrecking mistakes yet. The team’s played one bad half. There’s no need to panic yet. I’m not certain there will be even if the Tigers received a loss at Minnesota on Thursday (it’d have to be a really, really bad loss for that to happen).
This isn’t like college football where the stakes are high no matter what game you play in. Individual college basketball games don’t count for all that much. The Memphis loss might sting right now, but it could be an afterthought come tournament time. Give it a few weeks before you start discounting Mizzou.
It’s been a calendar year, so it’s difficult to remember and I don’t fault anyone for forgetting. But Missouri was worse through its first couple of games last season than the 2023-24 team has been in these past few weeks.
It’s easy to recall what the Tigers looked like in March: Kobe Brown was a certified star. D’Moi Hodge was a sniper from deep and one of the peskiest defenders in school history. DeAndre Gholston provided a sturdy third option if Brown and/or Hodge couldn’t get going. It was a team that scored 79 points against the No. 1 defense in the country in Tennessee during the SEC tournament. It was a team that beat Utah State — a program that was favored by 1.5 points by oddsmakers and ranked higher in the NET, KenPom and Bart Torvik — by 11 in the first round of the Big Dance.
It was a unit that was also a finished product. Mizzou wasn’t playing anywhere near that level when it set off in November. The black and gold nearly gave up a 20-point lead in the final 4:47 of its 97-91 win over Southern Indiana. The Tigers were tied with Penn at halftime in their second game, 43-43, before pulling away just enough in the second period for a 92-85 victory. It wasn’t until the team’s third game against Lindenwood that it won by double digits, 82-53.
No one had truly settled into their roles by that point, either. Brown scored 20 points against USI, then eight against Penn, then 13 against Lindenwood. Hodge had one steal in the opener, three in the next game, then none against the Lions — he shot 6-21 from the 3-point line over the stretch. Gholston saw his minutes go from 22 to 15 to 18 and later lost his starting spot.
We know how it turned out for all three of them. But at the time, no one was predicting Brown to be a future first-round NBA Draft pick, or Hodge to break the single-season steals record and hit 100 treys, or Gholston to bail the black and gold out as many times as he did. It took time for head coach Dennis Gates to find the right lineup combinations and clearly define what each player’s role was going to be.
It’s unfair to have less patience with this year’s squad, especially with Colorado State transfer guard John Tonje and Oral Roberts transfer center Connor Vanover, who both figure to be key contributors, unavailable for most or all of Missouri’s first three outings. Fans are well within their rights to be critical of the team’s shooting performance against Memphis in which Mizzou made just 6-28 of its triples. But it’s wrong to think this early on that it’s an indication of how the team will shoot every game. Was the Tigers’ 7-28 shooting performance against Southern Indiana an indicator last year? Or how about their 8-26 night against Lindenwood?
Figuring out the right rotations means a lot of trial and error. There seemed to be a lot of hand-wringing over Gates playing Kaleb Brown and Mabor Majak during the first half of the Memphis game, but Mizzou didn’t lose because he gave them all of four minutes. If Kaleb made the type of strides that Gates said he did, calling him the “most improved” player of the offseason, why shouldn’t the head coach check to see what he can do against a quality opponent? What’s wrong with Majak getting spot minutes while Vanover sits out? It's harmless.
Tinkering with the lineups has already led to some promising developments. I, for one, didn’t necessarily see freshmen Anthony Robinson II or Jordan Butler making a significant impact this year. But they both played important roles in extended minutes in Mizzou’s win over SIU Edwardsville on Monday. That’ll go a long way in building trust with Gates, perhaps giving him more options than he realized he had.
Remember, too: this year’s team is supposed to be deeper than last year’s. That means there are more lineups to cycle through and test out before settling in on a regular rotation. There have been times it’s looked clunky, but that’s to be expected for a team with as many newcomers as MU does who are still learning how to play with each other. It’s not an issue that’s unique to the Tigers, either, as offenses across the nation have been less productive a week and a half into the season. The average offensive rating among NCAA Division I schools last year was 104.8 points per 100 possessions — so far this season, it’s dropped to 102.5 (Missouri’s offensive rating is well above it at 108.6).
The Tigers’ margins of victory have been wider so far this season despite the opponents being tougher than last year’s. If you want to nit-pick and say they should’ve won by even more, keep in mind that the one-time exception transfer rule has narrowed the gap between high majors and the rest of the country. Thirty-point blowouts are harder to come by and upsets are becoming more common. Several SEC schools have had their hands full going up against mid-majors through the first week and a half of the season. Here are a few examples:
- Ten minutes into the first half of its game against Texas A&M-Commerce, Kentucky trailed the Lions, 23-17. The Wildcats jumped in front by halftime and went on to win 81-61.
- South Carolina beat VMI 74-64.
- Georgia defeated NC Central 64-54.
- Ole Miss barely got by Detroit Mercy, taking a 70-69 victory — the Titans had the ball with a chance to win on the last possession.
- LSU lost to Nicholls State, 68-66.
- Vanderbilt lost to Presbyterian, 68-62.
Missouri hasn’t made any season-wrecking mistakes yet. The team’s played one bad half. There’s no need to panic yet. I’m not certain there will be even if the Tigers received a loss at Minnesota on Thursday (it’d have to be a really, really bad loss for that to happen).
This isn’t like college football where the stakes are high no matter what game you play in. Individual college basketball games don’t count for all that much. The Memphis loss might sting right now, but it could be an afterthought come tournament time. Give it a few weeks before you start discounting Mizzou.
