First time our numbers have went down since late January, so while disappointing, certainly, recall that after our loss in Starkville, we sat at a 26% chance of making the tournament. So still a massive change.
Team Sheet
RPI: 25th
KPI: 26th
SOR: 42nd
--
BPI: 45th
KPom: 37th
Sagarin: 40th
Quadrant 1: 5-7
Quadrant 2: 5-1
Quadrant 3: 4-1
Quadrant 4: 3-0
Team Ranking's Tournament Numbers
Odds to Make NCAA Tournament: 78.5% (down from 86.7%)
Odds to Make NCAA Tournament by Win Total (includes Emporia)
18: 0.9%
19: 13.4%
20: 55.7%
21: 89.6%
22: 97.3%
23: 99.6%
Most Likely Seed (total of 78.5%)
7: 13.7%
8: 13.0%
6: 12.3%
9: 10.4%
5: 9.2%
10: 6.9%
4: 5.1%
Of note:
1. Tigers, according to these projections, have a higher chance of being a 7 seed or higher (~31%) than missing the tournament altogether (~21.5%).
2. There was a lost opportunity yesterday, and the odds took a bit of a hit, but I post this to give a feel of college basketball in general. One team's results are only a part of the puzzle. What everyone else is doing also has an impact.
3. I still think 21 is the magic number. 20 might do the trick, but that number could drop, perhaps significantly, with any upsets in conference tourneys where there's an at-large candidate (MTSU, New Mexico State, West Coast Conference etc.) With 4 regular season games left, and at least one conference tourney game, the goal for inclusion has to be finish this stretch at or above .500.
Team Sheet
RPI: 25th
KPI: 26th
SOR: 42nd
--
BPI: 45th
KPom: 37th
Sagarin: 40th
Quadrant 1: 5-7
Quadrant 2: 5-1
Quadrant 3: 4-1
Quadrant 4: 3-0
Team Ranking's Tournament Numbers
Odds to Make NCAA Tournament: 78.5% (down from 86.7%)
Odds to Make NCAA Tournament by Win Total (includes Emporia)
18: 0.9%
19: 13.4%
20: 55.7%
21: 89.6%
22: 97.3%
23: 99.6%
Most Likely Seed (total of 78.5%)
7: 13.7%
8: 13.0%
6: 12.3%
9: 10.4%
5: 9.2%
10: 6.9%
4: 5.1%
Of note:
1. Tigers, according to these projections, have a higher chance of being a 7 seed or higher (~31%) than missing the tournament altogether (~21.5%).
2. There was a lost opportunity yesterday, and the odds took a bit of a hit, but I post this to give a feel of college basketball in general. One team's results are only a part of the puzzle. What everyone else is doing also has an impact.
3. I still think 21 is the magic number. 20 might do the trick, but that number could drop, perhaps significantly, with any upsets in conference tourneys where there's an at-large candidate (MTSU, New Mexico State, West Coast Conference etc.) With 4 regular season games left, and at least one conference tourney game, the goal for inclusion has to be finish this stretch at or above .500.
