This one, a little less fun to write than the last few. The positive? It's the first one I haven't enjoyed doing in 20 days. The (ex) 5 game win steak was really enjoyable. But here we are.
1. Who we played. LSU isn't a great team, but they're decent. And that makes for a tough road matchup in conference play. Pomeroy had LSU favored by one with a 52% of the bayou version winning. Most books had it as a pick 'em or LSU -1. Funny how that turns out, huh? RPI has them at 72 after the win, so at best, it's a "good" loss, and at worse, it's a loss. I don't see them dropping into "bad" loss territory (Quadrant 3 or beyond). LSU has lost quite a few games this year, but they also have wins over Michigan (neutral), Houston, aTm (x2), Arkansas (x2) and a heartbreaker at home to UK. When you look at it at the end of the season, not living and dying with each possession...it's just a loss. Nothing more, nothing less.
2. That said, Mizzou had EVERY opportunity to win this game. When you go 12-21 from 3 point range, and lose, other things went wrong. Let's look at them in order of importance (imo):
a. Free Throw Shooting: Mizzou shot 7-17 from the line. LSU shot 11-13. LSU shot a little better than they should, based on season numbers, but nothing crazy. Mizzou, on the other hand, shot 41% with at least one miss on a front end. Their season numbers indicate they should make 13. That's a six point difference. Think that matters? Absolfreakinlutely.
b. 2 Point Shooting: I don't have the numbers to break down WHERE shots were taken inside the arc, yet, but suffice it to say, the vast majority were within 5 feet. The tigers shot 10-27 in there. Including MULTIPLE misses on shots that shouldn't be missed. Tilmon at least two, puryear one, Porter with a backbreaker near the end and the final shot by Robertson. We're talking an additional 10 points. Take that in combo with just shooting our average from the line, and we're talking a runaway, even if a fewer 3's fall.
c. Rebounding: Tigers were outworked on the boards to the tune of 36-33 overall, and 9-5 on the offensive end. Against a poor team on the boards. That was especially bad in the middle part of the first half.
d. Ball-handling: Mizzou didn't lose the game here (hence ranked 4th on my list), but they weren't great. Had 12 turnovers to LSU's 9. Only had 10 assists on 22 makes. LSU doubled us up on steals 6-3. Wasn't the difference in the game, but it did nothing to help.
3. Despite all that, I think Mizzou was the better team today, but they didn't deserve to win, if that makes sense. They put themselves in the position to get it done, but simply didn't execute enough to pull out the W.
4. After a subpar first half, I thought Mizzou turned it up defensively and played better. Nothing about LSU's numbers scream that this was a poor defensive effort (aside from what is mentioned above). LSU shot 39% from the floor and 33% from deep. Only were awarded 13 free throws. Mizzou played well enough defensively to win the game.
5. I'm not going to get hot and bothered by it, though I won't argue with anyone who is. Robertson was fouled on his last attempt. Not sure how confident I am in our ability to convert had it been called, though.
6. Speaking of Robertson, I feel bad for the kid today. Played a solid all around game today, just like he always does of recent. But man, he missed a WIDE OPEN tilmon on his charge. Then he has the shot rim out. That's rough. Not taking anything away from what he's done, but that's gotta be hard to swallow.
7. Player of the game? We'll go with Barnett. 18 points, 5 boards and only one turnover. Hit numerous big shots and managed to avoid missing any free throws...because he didn't attempt any. Solid strategy.
8. Honorable mention: Geist. Only scored 7 points, but pulled down 10 (read: TEN) rebounds, to go along with 3 assists, a steal and no turnovers. He's brought some amount of stability to a very unstable situation at the PG position.
9. I guess there's something to this jontay scores 10, Mizzou wins thing. He had 9 and 7 today, but only did it on 4-11 shooting. Our freshmen bigs combined for: 10 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks, 5 fouls and 5 turnovers. I believe Tilmon was a bit under the weather, but that's just not going to cut it.
Conclusion: It was a frustrating way to end the hot streak. But if you want to feel better, consider the following. If you want to feel worse, stop here.
--Mizzou by going on one of the more improbable win streaks has actually given themselves some cushion. They obviously can't lose out, because that would be trouble. But they're still in a very good spot to earn a bid. Today doesn't change that a whole lot.
--In their last two games, Mizzou blew a 12 point lead with 1:37 to go, was down 5 in OT, and was down 1 with 15 seconds in OT. Puryear hit a massive shot to win the first. aTm had a shot rim out to tie the second. You obviously want to win them all, but just as things went wrong today, things went pretty well to get where we are.
--Was talking with some folks after the Kentucky game. We agreed that if Mizzou won 3 of their next 5 before visiting UK for the return game, we'd be in a pretty good spot. That included road trips to LSU and Ole Miss, home tilts with MSU, aTm and Ole Miss. They're 3-1 through the 4 toughest games (Pomeroy had today's game listed as the toughest of the group), and now return home for Ole Miss.
That said, the one tuesday is big. Ole Miss is a team that Mizzou should beat in Columbia. They're dangerous, obviously, as any conference opponent is. But they've won only one game outside of Oxford all year, at a neutral site over Rice. Against top 100 (pomeroy) teams on the road, they've went:
MTSU: -18
Georgia: -11
Auburn: -15
aTm: -2
Arkansas: -4
Texas: -13
Tennessee: -33
LSU -16
They play in Starkville today.
In other words, Tuesday is a game Mizzou should win, and absolutely needs to win. Do that, and you're looking at needing 2 wins in 4 games to sew up a bid. 1 more would potentially do the trick.
As for today, I'm blaming @GabeD for altering @BoatDan99 's post. That's your mulligan. You don't get two.
1. Who we played. LSU isn't a great team, but they're decent. And that makes for a tough road matchup in conference play. Pomeroy had LSU favored by one with a 52% of the bayou version winning. Most books had it as a pick 'em or LSU -1. Funny how that turns out, huh? RPI has them at 72 after the win, so at best, it's a "good" loss, and at worse, it's a loss. I don't see them dropping into "bad" loss territory (Quadrant 3 or beyond). LSU has lost quite a few games this year, but they also have wins over Michigan (neutral), Houston, aTm (x2), Arkansas (x2) and a heartbreaker at home to UK. When you look at it at the end of the season, not living and dying with each possession...it's just a loss. Nothing more, nothing less.
2. That said, Mizzou had EVERY opportunity to win this game. When you go 12-21 from 3 point range, and lose, other things went wrong. Let's look at them in order of importance (imo):
a. Free Throw Shooting: Mizzou shot 7-17 from the line. LSU shot 11-13. LSU shot a little better than they should, based on season numbers, but nothing crazy. Mizzou, on the other hand, shot 41% with at least one miss on a front end. Their season numbers indicate they should make 13. That's a six point difference. Think that matters? Absolfreakinlutely.
b. 2 Point Shooting: I don't have the numbers to break down WHERE shots were taken inside the arc, yet, but suffice it to say, the vast majority were within 5 feet. The tigers shot 10-27 in there. Including MULTIPLE misses on shots that shouldn't be missed. Tilmon at least two, puryear one, Porter with a backbreaker near the end and the final shot by Robertson. We're talking an additional 10 points. Take that in combo with just shooting our average from the line, and we're talking a runaway, even if a fewer 3's fall.
c. Rebounding: Tigers were outworked on the boards to the tune of 36-33 overall, and 9-5 on the offensive end. Against a poor team on the boards. That was especially bad in the middle part of the first half.
d. Ball-handling: Mizzou didn't lose the game here (hence ranked 4th on my list), but they weren't great. Had 12 turnovers to LSU's 9. Only had 10 assists on 22 makes. LSU doubled us up on steals 6-3. Wasn't the difference in the game, but it did nothing to help.
3. Despite all that, I think Mizzou was the better team today, but they didn't deserve to win, if that makes sense. They put themselves in the position to get it done, but simply didn't execute enough to pull out the W.
4. After a subpar first half, I thought Mizzou turned it up defensively and played better. Nothing about LSU's numbers scream that this was a poor defensive effort (aside from what is mentioned above). LSU shot 39% from the floor and 33% from deep. Only were awarded 13 free throws. Mizzou played well enough defensively to win the game.
5. I'm not going to get hot and bothered by it, though I won't argue with anyone who is. Robertson was fouled on his last attempt. Not sure how confident I am in our ability to convert had it been called, though.
6. Speaking of Robertson, I feel bad for the kid today. Played a solid all around game today, just like he always does of recent. But man, he missed a WIDE OPEN tilmon on his charge. Then he has the shot rim out. That's rough. Not taking anything away from what he's done, but that's gotta be hard to swallow.
7. Player of the game? We'll go with Barnett. 18 points, 5 boards and only one turnover. Hit numerous big shots and managed to avoid missing any free throws...because he didn't attempt any. Solid strategy.
8. Honorable mention: Geist. Only scored 7 points, but pulled down 10 (read: TEN) rebounds, to go along with 3 assists, a steal and no turnovers. He's brought some amount of stability to a very unstable situation at the PG position.
9. I guess there's something to this jontay scores 10, Mizzou wins thing. He had 9 and 7 today, but only did it on 4-11 shooting. Our freshmen bigs combined for: 10 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks, 5 fouls and 5 turnovers. I believe Tilmon was a bit under the weather, but that's just not going to cut it.
Conclusion: It was a frustrating way to end the hot streak. But if you want to feel better, consider the following. If you want to feel worse, stop here.
--Mizzou by going on one of the more improbable win streaks has actually given themselves some cushion. They obviously can't lose out, because that would be trouble. But they're still in a very good spot to earn a bid. Today doesn't change that a whole lot.
--In their last two games, Mizzou blew a 12 point lead with 1:37 to go, was down 5 in OT, and was down 1 with 15 seconds in OT. Puryear hit a massive shot to win the first. aTm had a shot rim out to tie the second. You obviously want to win them all, but just as things went wrong today, things went pretty well to get where we are.
--Was talking with some folks after the Kentucky game. We agreed that if Mizzou won 3 of their next 5 before visiting UK for the return game, we'd be in a pretty good spot. That included road trips to LSU and Ole Miss, home tilts with MSU, aTm and Ole Miss. They're 3-1 through the 4 toughest games (Pomeroy had today's game listed as the toughest of the group), and now return home for Ole Miss.
That said, the one tuesday is big. Ole Miss is a team that Mizzou should beat in Columbia. They're dangerous, obviously, as any conference opponent is. But they've won only one game outside of Oxford all year, at a neutral site over Rice. Against top 100 (pomeroy) teams on the road, they've went:
MTSU: -18
Georgia: -11
Auburn: -15
aTm: -2
Arkansas: -4
Texas: -13
Tennessee: -33
LSU -16
They play in Starkville today.
In other words, Tuesday is a game Mizzou should win, and absolutely needs to win. Do that, and you're looking at needing 2 wins in 4 games to sew up a bid. 1 more would potentially do the trick.
As for today, I'm blaming @GabeD for altering @BoatDan99 's post. That's your mulligan. You don't get two.
