So I was on the road all day yesterday and Friday. Obviously didn't post a whole lot about the basketball games and didn't have a ton of follow up on football yesterday. Consider this like my rambling thoughts to catch up on kind of the state of where things are right now. This is likely to take a couple of posts due to the length.
FOOTBALL
At this point in time, we need to get through Friday. What happens in that game, frankly, doesn't matter a whole lot. That doesn't mean they won't try to win or that 4-8 doesn't sound better than 3-9 or that it doesn't matter to the kids and the coaches. Of course it does. But from a big picture standpoint from the media and fans point of view, it's all about what happens AFTER the clock hits triple zero against Arkansas.
What kind of class can they get in here? Who's leaving (on their own or being encouraged to?) What turnover is there in the coaching staff (again, by their own volition or by being let go?) These are the things that matter because 2017 is an important year.
I'll do a breakdown of each position starting next week and looking forward to 2017 so I'm not going to talk a bunch about individual personnel in this post. I'm going to focus more on big picture stuff.
OFFENSE: It all comes back except Sean Culkin. I've come to the conclusion this morning that right now, Drew Lock is like Marcus Peters. For those who don't know Peters, he is a cornerback for the Chiefs. He has more interceptions than any player in NFL history through 25 games of his career and he makes 2-3 ridiculously good plays every week and wins some games. He also gets burned more than about any elite CB I've ever seen and has at least one insane lapse in judgment every single week and you frequently worry he's going to lose them a game.
At QB, obviously the ability to win and lose a game is bigger than any other position. Drew made a couple throws on Saturday that had Tennessee media drooling over him. This happens every week. He makes some throws that not five other quarterbacks in the country can make. Almost every week. He also makes 2-3 throws every week that you just can't possibly fathom how they're that far off target or what he's looking at.
There's a big difference between Peters and Lock, though. With Peters, right now, the good plays outweigh the bad ones. He's a net positive player. With Lock, I'm not sure he is. I think at best he's a zero sum player. And sometimes, he's a net-minus. The UGA game is the most emblematic of what he is right now. A first half that has you thinking, "Good God, this kid's an NFL quarterback" followed by a second half that loses a game. The tools are there, but he's got to reduce the negative plays.
This team does one thing well: Run the ball. Damarea Crockett is a star. Not is GOING to be a star. He is. Ish Witter and Nate Strong are good backs. The OL has been a revelation this year and everybody comes back.
I have a lot of issues with the scheme and have all year long. First of all, it's too fast. I've never understood the idea that you should run 100 plays a game with the personnel Missouri has right now. Second, the passing game seems to me to be about 90% "go as far downfield as fast as you can get there and Drew's gonna throw it as far as he can and hopefully you guys will hook up." It's high risk, high reward to me. And the reward hasn't equalled the risk. That said, you can't be upset about the job Josh Heupel has done. The offense is much better than it was last year. He returns ten starters. Assuming Heupel is back and Drew gets a second year in his system (I don't have a reason to believe that won't happen), there is reason to think they'll be better (see: more consistent) next year.
DEFENSE: It's terrible and I honestly don't know why. They weren't as good as the numbers said last year. And losing Kentrell Brothers and Walter Brady hurt (and losing Ian Simon has hurt far more than I expected it to).
Moving to the 4-2-5 was a huge mistake in hindsight (and make no mistake, they fully moved to the TCU scheme and have now fully moved back...I understand Odom is saying it's a hybrid and I understand why, but the reality is they scrapped the defense and reverted to last year entering the Kentucky game). But the move hasn't helped. They were dreadful against Kentucky, okay against South Carolina, pretty good against Vandy and worse than dreadful against Tennessee.
I'd love to be able to tell you I know why. It's a combo of losing personnel from last year, injuries this year, guys playing worse than they did last year, terrible tackling, lack of commitment to the scheme and the scheme simply not working. It's all of those things. And what it adds up to is what we've seen this year. As I wrote Saturday night, take what you did on defense, burn it and then burn the ashes of it.
I don't know if DeMontie Cross is coming back and it's not my place to say whether he should or shouldn't. Trust me, come Friday about 5:15 that's something I'm going to be really working on finding out, but as of right now I don't know. But whether it's Cross or Odom or someone new (and, yes, if they're looking for a defensive coordinator, I think it's at least worth calling Charlie Strong to see what he'd say), they have to get back to having at least a decent defense.
I fully expect Charles Harris to go pro. The defensive line has to be restocked and the juco ranks seem to be the most obvious place. Next year you have Marcell Frazier, Spencer Williams, Jordan Harold, Nate Howard and Tre Williams on the edge and Chris Turner coming in. Inside, you have Markell Utsey, AJ Logan, Terry Beckner and you've got to find some help on the recruiting trail.
The safety position may need the most help. They don't have a guy you can count on. Right now, I might say Ronnell Perkins is the best safety. I understand those wondering why Tavon Ross or Greg Taylor haven't gotten a look (I've wondered myself) but the simple fact is if this staff thought those guys had any chance to be better than the dudes who have been out there, we'd have seen them. They've played a ton of guys all over the field and we haven't seen those two so there's got to be some reason.
SPECIAL TEAMS: It was actually good to see Tucker McCann make all of his kicks Saturday. It might be a small step, but a small step is good. I think everyone underestimates just how much it changes your approach and how crippling it is when you have to go into a game knowing you can't even try a 20 yard field goal. It changes EVERYTHING. And then you miss the first PAT of the game. There's just no stating how big it was. The kid was the number one kicker in the country. You invested a scholarship in him. You need to be right. This offseason, the kid needs to get totally away from football and get his head right and then come back and win the job in the spring. You don't hand it to him. You make him earn it. And next fall, you just go with the guy who's been the best through spring and fall camp and hope you're right.
COACHING: It's been a rough year. Missouri's talent is down, but it's not 3-9 down (and to be fair, they're two plays--one against UGA and one against MTSU) from playing for a bowl game this Friday against Arkansas. They're not quite as far off as 3-8 would make you think they initially are. Don't get me wrong, they're not close to competing for the East, but they're not far from being a bowl team. They have a worse record than last year, but I don't really believe they're a worse team. I'm not sure they're better, but I'm pretty sure they're not worse.
I'm Barry Odom's biggest proponent. I've never hidden the fact that I've known and respected and liked him for 20 years and I really want him to be good. But I'm not so blind as to pretend there aren't issues. The clock management and approach against Georgia was terrible. Not going for two in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, while it didn't change the outcome, is indefensible.
There are coaches who can make it work basically being the coach of one side of the ball and letting their coordinator handle the other side. Mike Leach and Mike Gundy do this and do very well. I don't know if Odom is one of those guys or not. Right now, his defense certainly isn't good enough to justify it. You can tell after games when he is asked an offensive question and says he has to talk to Josh Heupel about it, or even a couple of times when he's called the offense "they" that this season Odom has been the head coach of the defense and Heupel the head coach of the offense. I don't know if that works for him going forward or not. Maybe it changes. I don't have an answer, just raising a point for consideration.
FOOTBALL
At this point in time, we need to get through Friday. What happens in that game, frankly, doesn't matter a whole lot. That doesn't mean they won't try to win or that 4-8 doesn't sound better than 3-9 or that it doesn't matter to the kids and the coaches. Of course it does. But from a big picture standpoint from the media and fans point of view, it's all about what happens AFTER the clock hits triple zero against Arkansas.
What kind of class can they get in here? Who's leaving (on their own or being encouraged to?) What turnover is there in the coaching staff (again, by their own volition or by being let go?) These are the things that matter because 2017 is an important year.
I'll do a breakdown of each position starting next week and looking forward to 2017 so I'm not going to talk a bunch about individual personnel in this post. I'm going to focus more on big picture stuff.
OFFENSE: It all comes back except Sean Culkin. I've come to the conclusion this morning that right now, Drew Lock is like Marcus Peters. For those who don't know Peters, he is a cornerback for the Chiefs. He has more interceptions than any player in NFL history through 25 games of his career and he makes 2-3 ridiculously good plays every week and wins some games. He also gets burned more than about any elite CB I've ever seen and has at least one insane lapse in judgment every single week and you frequently worry he's going to lose them a game.
At QB, obviously the ability to win and lose a game is bigger than any other position. Drew made a couple throws on Saturday that had Tennessee media drooling over him. This happens every week. He makes some throws that not five other quarterbacks in the country can make. Almost every week. He also makes 2-3 throws every week that you just can't possibly fathom how they're that far off target or what he's looking at.
There's a big difference between Peters and Lock, though. With Peters, right now, the good plays outweigh the bad ones. He's a net positive player. With Lock, I'm not sure he is. I think at best he's a zero sum player. And sometimes, he's a net-minus. The UGA game is the most emblematic of what he is right now. A first half that has you thinking, "Good God, this kid's an NFL quarterback" followed by a second half that loses a game. The tools are there, but he's got to reduce the negative plays.
This team does one thing well: Run the ball. Damarea Crockett is a star. Not is GOING to be a star. He is. Ish Witter and Nate Strong are good backs. The OL has been a revelation this year and everybody comes back.
I have a lot of issues with the scheme and have all year long. First of all, it's too fast. I've never understood the idea that you should run 100 plays a game with the personnel Missouri has right now. Second, the passing game seems to me to be about 90% "go as far downfield as fast as you can get there and Drew's gonna throw it as far as he can and hopefully you guys will hook up." It's high risk, high reward to me. And the reward hasn't equalled the risk. That said, you can't be upset about the job Josh Heupel has done. The offense is much better than it was last year. He returns ten starters. Assuming Heupel is back and Drew gets a second year in his system (I don't have a reason to believe that won't happen), there is reason to think they'll be better (see: more consistent) next year.
DEFENSE: It's terrible and I honestly don't know why. They weren't as good as the numbers said last year. And losing Kentrell Brothers and Walter Brady hurt (and losing Ian Simon has hurt far more than I expected it to).
Moving to the 4-2-5 was a huge mistake in hindsight (and make no mistake, they fully moved to the TCU scheme and have now fully moved back...I understand Odom is saying it's a hybrid and I understand why, but the reality is they scrapped the defense and reverted to last year entering the Kentucky game). But the move hasn't helped. They were dreadful against Kentucky, okay against South Carolina, pretty good against Vandy and worse than dreadful against Tennessee.
I'd love to be able to tell you I know why. It's a combo of losing personnel from last year, injuries this year, guys playing worse than they did last year, terrible tackling, lack of commitment to the scheme and the scheme simply not working. It's all of those things. And what it adds up to is what we've seen this year. As I wrote Saturday night, take what you did on defense, burn it and then burn the ashes of it.
I don't know if DeMontie Cross is coming back and it's not my place to say whether he should or shouldn't. Trust me, come Friday about 5:15 that's something I'm going to be really working on finding out, but as of right now I don't know. But whether it's Cross or Odom or someone new (and, yes, if they're looking for a defensive coordinator, I think it's at least worth calling Charlie Strong to see what he'd say), they have to get back to having at least a decent defense.
I fully expect Charles Harris to go pro. The defensive line has to be restocked and the juco ranks seem to be the most obvious place. Next year you have Marcell Frazier, Spencer Williams, Jordan Harold, Nate Howard and Tre Williams on the edge and Chris Turner coming in. Inside, you have Markell Utsey, AJ Logan, Terry Beckner and you've got to find some help on the recruiting trail.
The safety position may need the most help. They don't have a guy you can count on. Right now, I might say Ronnell Perkins is the best safety. I understand those wondering why Tavon Ross or Greg Taylor haven't gotten a look (I've wondered myself) but the simple fact is if this staff thought those guys had any chance to be better than the dudes who have been out there, we'd have seen them. They've played a ton of guys all over the field and we haven't seen those two so there's got to be some reason.
SPECIAL TEAMS: It was actually good to see Tucker McCann make all of his kicks Saturday. It might be a small step, but a small step is good. I think everyone underestimates just how much it changes your approach and how crippling it is when you have to go into a game knowing you can't even try a 20 yard field goal. It changes EVERYTHING. And then you miss the first PAT of the game. There's just no stating how big it was. The kid was the number one kicker in the country. You invested a scholarship in him. You need to be right. This offseason, the kid needs to get totally away from football and get his head right and then come back and win the job in the spring. You don't hand it to him. You make him earn it. And next fall, you just go with the guy who's been the best through spring and fall camp and hope you're right.
COACHING: It's been a rough year. Missouri's talent is down, but it's not 3-9 down (and to be fair, they're two plays--one against UGA and one against MTSU) from playing for a bowl game this Friday against Arkansas. They're not quite as far off as 3-8 would make you think they initially are. Don't get me wrong, they're not close to competing for the East, but they're not far from being a bowl team. They have a worse record than last year, but I don't really believe they're a worse team. I'm not sure they're better, but I'm pretty sure they're not worse.
I'm Barry Odom's biggest proponent. I've never hidden the fact that I've known and respected and liked him for 20 years and I really want him to be good. But I'm not so blind as to pretend there aren't issues. The clock management and approach against Georgia was terrible. Not going for two in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, while it didn't change the outcome, is indefensible.
There are coaches who can make it work basically being the coach of one side of the ball and letting their coordinator handle the other side. Mike Leach and Mike Gundy do this and do very well. I don't know if Odom is one of those guys or not. Right now, his defense certainly isn't good enough to justify it. You can tell after games when he is asked an offensive question and says he has to talk to Josh Heupel about it, or even a couple of times when he's called the offense "they" that this season Odom has been the head coach of the defense and Heupel the head coach of the offense. I don't know if that works for him going forward or not. Maybe it changes. I don't have an answer, just raising a point for consideration.
