Sorry I took a week off from the musings. Got caught up with work and had a baby, it's a boy.
1. Coronavirus - I said at the beginning that this wasn't going to kill a ton of people, but economically it would cripple. I still stand with that statement. I focused on China supply chain and reduction in consumerism. Now on a corporate level, it is cancelling travel and events. I think Airlines and Cruiselines are going to need bailed out. These companies run on such thin margins already, having boats or planes that are less than 50% full is crippling. I saw that Lufthansia was already working with German government for bailout. You will see this expand. The last 10 years of the bull market has mostly been growth market, not profit. For example, Netflix, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Apple all increased by ridiculous valuations that can only be justified by speculated growth. Even Apple had a PE above 25x at one point. As such, even the fall to the 200 day moving average for Apple was going to be significant. I am still analyzing the infection growth rate for Coronavirus. South Korea's numbers are encouraging. On the market though, we aren't even down 20% yet, which is crazy the reaction. Although, depending on when you read this, we may be down 20%. I still think the market drops further. I am not a financial analyst, don't take investing advice from me. I just don't see the consumer travel market coming back anytime soon.
2, Saudi Arabia just added contagion number 2. OIL PRICE PLUMMET. So the Kingdom and OPEC couldn't get an agreement with Russia to drop oil output. As such, SA said, EFF U, we gonna ruin your country and take out the american oil producers as well. Good news this time is at least oil companies weren't as leveraged as last time, because prices never popped to over $100/bl. Oil prices last night dropped by 30%, but came back a bit, but still down 20%. Looking at the market, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Canada are going to get CRUSHED. I cannot imagine how bad it will be for Calgary. Another country that will get effed up will be Norway. They have one of the top outputs per person populations, in other words, they rely heavily on oil production income. This will hurt USA as well, but we consume as much as we produce, so a loss for oil would be a gain for other industries. It still hurts, but not as bad as other countries. The US is the number 1 producer of oil by a lot btw. I think Houston, west Texas, South Texas, etc. are going to get really hurt btw. I don't know what will be Economic contagion number 3, but things always come in 3s. I honestly think it will be some governments collapsing.
3. Federal Government incompetence. I think Trump has bungled the response here. It is too early too tell, but if numbers in the US end up being higher than other comparative countries, it is easy to rip the admin. My issue here is that both sides are interested in blaming each other instead of actually working towards issues. City and State governments need to be putting together plans. I think Seattle area should have a plan in place for major outbreak, quarantine procedures, etc. Waiting on the federal government is just stupid. The Federal government should be stepping in to support the local government. And if you are a state and local government who doesn't trust the federal (which I don't blame you), then you should be proactive on your own, not waiting. You're starting to see that some, but it should have been quicker. Right now, we are being exposed to 4 types of people, the complainers who criticize government response continuously (These exist on both sides), the Deniers (those who just buy what the govt is selling), the Apathetics (don't really care), and 4. the problem solvers (those who don't care about statements, but are doing what they can to help the situation). The number 4 is the people that you need to recognize in this situation and those are the people you should be voting for going forward. Bill Gates is one of Number 4. Remember, that rich guy we all hate, he worked to get kits to everyone. A problem solver. Look at the people you follow in politics, local leaders, elections, etc. Look for Number 4, regardless of party.
4. I had a baby, it's a boy. Name is Kilian after Saint Kilian (I will probably call him Ian). I wanted a name less common, Irish, and catholic. Unfortunately I couldn't get the wife to accept Patrick, and honestly, that name might become a top 10 most common boys name soon. Everything was smooth, baby and mother healthy and home now. As a person, I gotta tell you, we take for granted just being healthy way too much. My second son had a scary birth, so for numbers 3 and 4 sons when born, I almost broke out in tears when they cried immediately just because I knew that meant they were ok. I think the boys were a little disappointed it wasn't a girl. I am already looking into buying beef by the cow for the teenage years for four sons. If my grandfather were alive, he would be so disappointed that I wasn't farming with four sons, that's a future empire of farming with all that free labor. So far, Baby is chill and not crying too much. I am very thankful for that..
5. POTUS 2020. A lot happened when I checked out last. We had the establishment circle the wagons behind Joe Biden and screw over Bernie. I like this and hate this at the same time. I am obviously not a fan of Bernie, but I don't like the system that we have here. I understand we need dealmakers, but on the other end, it shows you have to play the game to get there instead of having fundamental ideals. Now Joe is showing more signs of having issues, cognitive. Trump has always lost train of thought in his speaking and speeches, but BIden wasn't always that case. Trump seems more mentally there than Joe, which is crazy. We don't have a DNC nom yet, so maybe this is too early. If Joe continues to slip, maybe Bernie makes up ground. But right now, it looks like it is Joe v. Trump. And once again, we all lose out.
6. San Francisco, no you can't dock your ship here. I have stated my quips about how much San Fran is the most hypocritical city there ever was. First off, it is tops in income inequality. Now San Fran denies docking for a cruise ship that has Coronavirus patients. This is the most NIMBY thing ever. Oakland (San Fran's poor neighbor) steps up here. San Fran's motto should be. "We Care about Others as long as it doesn't inconvenience us." I even asked an outspoken person about San Fran denying port to boat this morning. This person is super liberal and the response I received was, well, I am not an expert medical person to answer that. EFF OFF. You either help those in need or you don't. San Fran said, NOPE. Oakland said, OK. Funny how that happens. For those saying, well, there was no plan. Oakland agreed without a plan. Secondly, you could have allowed them to dock without exiting while you figured out a plan, instead of making them stay out in the ocean.
1. Coronavirus - I said at the beginning that this wasn't going to kill a ton of people, but economically it would cripple. I still stand with that statement. I focused on China supply chain and reduction in consumerism. Now on a corporate level, it is cancelling travel and events. I think Airlines and Cruiselines are going to need bailed out. These companies run on such thin margins already, having boats or planes that are less than 50% full is crippling. I saw that Lufthansia was already working with German government for bailout. You will see this expand. The last 10 years of the bull market has mostly been growth market, not profit. For example, Netflix, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Apple all increased by ridiculous valuations that can only be justified by speculated growth. Even Apple had a PE above 25x at one point. As such, even the fall to the 200 day moving average for Apple was going to be significant. I am still analyzing the infection growth rate for Coronavirus. South Korea's numbers are encouraging. On the market though, we aren't even down 20% yet, which is crazy the reaction. Although, depending on when you read this, we may be down 20%. I still think the market drops further. I am not a financial analyst, don't take investing advice from me. I just don't see the consumer travel market coming back anytime soon.
2, Saudi Arabia just added contagion number 2. OIL PRICE PLUMMET. So the Kingdom and OPEC couldn't get an agreement with Russia to drop oil output. As such, SA said, EFF U, we gonna ruin your country and take out the american oil producers as well. Good news this time is at least oil companies weren't as leveraged as last time, because prices never popped to over $100/bl. Oil prices last night dropped by 30%, but came back a bit, but still down 20%. Looking at the market, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Canada are going to get CRUSHED. I cannot imagine how bad it will be for Calgary. Another country that will get effed up will be Norway. They have one of the top outputs per person populations, in other words, they rely heavily on oil production income. This will hurt USA as well, but we consume as much as we produce, so a loss for oil would be a gain for other industries. It still hurts, but not as bad as other countries. The US is the number 1 producer of oil by a lot btw. I think Houston, west Texas, South Texas, etc. are going to get really hurt btw. I don't know what will be Economic contagion number 3, but things always come in 3s. I honestly think it will be some governments collapsing.
3. Federal Government incompetence. I think Trump has bungled the response here. It is too early too tell, but if numbers in the US end up being higher than other comparative countries, it is easy to rip the admin. My issue here is that both sides are interested in blaming each other instead of actually working towards issues. City and State governments need to be putting together plans. I think Seattle area should have a plan in place for major outbreak, quarantine procedures, etc. Waiting on the federal government is just stupid. The Federal government should be stepping in to support the local government. And if you are a state and local government who doesn't trust the federal (which I don't blame you), then you should be proactive on your own, not waiting. You're starting to see that some, but it should have been quicker. Right now, we are being exposed to 4 types of people, the complainers who criticize government response continuously (These exist on both sides), the Deniers (those who just buy what the govt is selling), the Apathetics (don't really care), and 4. the problem solvers (those who don't care about statements, but are doing what they can to help the situation). The number 4 is the people that you need to recognize in this situation and those are the people you should be voting for going forward. Bill Gates is one of Number 4. Remember, that rich guy we all hate, he worked to get kits to everyone. A problem solver. Look at the people you follow in politics, local leaders, elections, etc. Look for Number 4, regardless of party.
4. I had a baby, it's a boy. Name is Kilian after Saint Kilian (I will probably call him Ian). I wanted a name less common, Irish, and catholic. Unfortunately I couldn't get the wife to accept Patrick, and honestly, that name might become a top 10 most common boys name soon. Everything was smooth, baby and mother healthy and home now. As a person, I gotta tell you, we take for granted just being healthy way too much. My second son had a scary birth, so for numbers 3 and 4 sons when born, I almost broke out in tears when they cried immediately just because I knew that meant they were ok. I think the boys were a little disappointed it wasn't a girl. I am already looking into buying beef by the cow for the teenage years for four sons. If my grandfather were alive, he would be so disappointed that I wasn't farming with four sons, that's a future empire of farming with all that free labor. So far, Baby is chill and not crying too much. I am very thankful for that..
5. POTUS 2020. A lot happened when I checked out last. We had the establishment circle the wagons behind Joe Biden and screw over Bernie. I like this and hate this at the same time. I am obviously not a fan of Bernie, but I don't like the system that we have here. I understand we need dealmakers, but on the other end, it shows you have to play the game to get there instead of having fundamental ideals. Now Joe is showing more signs of having issues, cognitive. Trump has always lost train of thought in his speaking and speeches, but BIden wasn't always that case. Trump seems more mentally there than Joe, which is crazy. We don't have a DNC nom yet, so maybe this is too early. If Joe continues to slip, maybe Bernie makes up ground. But right now, it looks like it is Joe v. Trump. And once again, we all lose out.
6. San Francisco, no you can't dock your ship here. I have stated my quips about how much San Fran is the most hypocritical city there ever was. First off, it is tops in income inequality. Now San Fran denies docking for a cruise ship that has Coronavirus patients. This is the most NIMBY thing ever. Oakland (San Fran's poor neighbor) steps up here. San Fran's motto should be. "We Care about Others as long as it doesn't inconvenience us." I even asked an outspoken person about San Fran denying port to boat this morning. This person is super liberal and the response I received was, well, I am not an expert medical person to answer that. EFF OFF. You either help those in need or you don't. San Fran said, NOPE. Oakland said, OK. Funny how that happens. For those saying, well, there was no plan. Oakland agreed without a plan. Secondly, you could have allowed them to dock without exiting while you figured out a plan, instead of making them stay out in the ocean.
