1. Learn from your mistakes. The best businessmen (persons) are those who fail, but learn. I suffered some bad decisions in investing recently. I went to a new all time high 2 weeks ago, but fell last week (when market was up all week). Where I am getting hurt is the stock EMTY. It is an ETF that is the inverse of brick and mortar store stocks. So it bets that brick and mortar retail will fail. Sounds like a safe bet, right? Well it peaked in March (as everything bottomed) at $59/share. I unloaded some, but bought back in as it went down. I bought a block at $55, then $50, then $45, then $40, then $38. The bottom before the peak was around $35/share. So We are within 10% of the bottom. This while most stores are closed and showing terrible sales for the ones that are open. The ETF shorts good companies like Walmart and Costco as well, but those only amount to 5% of the holdings. I am like WTF. What am I missing? Why am I losing money on this? So I spent most of last week doing research. It took a while, but I came across Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I think this has given me a better understanding at what some, maybe @Sevro au Barca is thinking about printing the money, give it to the poor. It is a better way to inject dollars into the market quickly. CLIFS: The world owes a butt load of money in Dollar Denominated Debt. The Dollar has increased in value versus other currencies (VXI). So in addition to interest, these countries have to pay more to offset their currency devaluation. The only way to get dollars is to sell assets (GOLD), US Treasuries, or export goods to the US. Well no one wants to do option 1 unless they have to. UST are solid right now. AND 3, export market tanked to Covid. So these countries were going to default. The Fed gave them dollars in exchange for their currency (the Yen), but it has to be paid back within a few months. That will have to be extended unless Exports to US picks back up. So we are basically controlling this countries with Dollar Debt.
As such, if you are a foreign business or foreign national, you cannot invest locally because your investments may tank with local currency (Think emerging markets). As such, you have to invest in US. You want Dollars and it is the only place to get them. Think about this. If you were a Turkish business man, you investing in AT&T, you got a 7% Dividend, but the Turkish Lira dropped 20%. Now you are receiving a MASSIVE dividend versus your local currency and your stock increased in value. That is what is propping up US stock market right now. The method isn't making money, it is actually preservation and survival. And there is nothing these countries can do until they pay off their dollar denominated debt and the Fed Repo market is just increasing that bubble, which will just make the Dollar value go HIGHER. So with this new knowledge, I am re-evaluating everything. I closed out short options this morning. I don't know how to invest without value, so I am going to sit tight with dollars and my dry powder. I am still holding the GOLD stuff and the Short Retail ETFs, but I will probably trim that position soon. But the point was learning how I effed up. I have seen guys I follow that killed it the past month based on behavioral patters and short flips, so I studied my history and I have lost most of my losses in short positions, so I conclude that I am not good at it and need to step back from it.
2. Give me liberty or Give me Death (unless there is a pandemic). I think you have every right to criticize people opening up, but if you are making a paycheck and you are doing it, you're kind of a azz. In America, you have every right to stay home. But you shouldn't have the right to stop others from leaving their home unless they have infringed someone's rights. If you want more hospital beds, more testing, etc, I think that's fine. But demanding a salon owner in Texas keep her doors shut is ridiculous. Here is where I hate the partisan crap and some showing that I am not 100% GOP nor 100% anit Dem. If that salon owner is open, she should be required to have insurance to cover cases if they are traced to her establishment. In other words, tainted meat issue. If you are open, you take that risk and responsibility. I don't like the Dems demanding she stay closed and I don't like the GOP trying to ban lawsuits for negligence. I think the extra insurance should be the compromise. Maybe the government could offer it. She pays the premium, Govt gets the revenue, revenue goes to health care, etc. etc.
3. Plandemic. After the outrage and craziness, I had to watch this video. Honestly, I don't think it was as bad as many think. I Don't believe all the cookiness and deep state stuff she claimed. The main issue was that the vid said masks could be bad for you and if you have received the flu vaccine, you are more at risk for Covid. Ok, with that said, the video is not that bad. I agree with her that Eric Schmidt is a POS. I don't believe much of it, but I don't think YouTube and Facebook should ban it either. Heck, Twitter got a bunch of idiot journalists to retweet a doctored video of Pence carrying boxes and claim it as factual. That was hilarious. I don't like censorship. Those businesses have a right to do it, but the barrier to entry to a more free social network is ridiculously high, so they really do have kind of a monopoly on information. (That's my big concern). How about since Google and Facebook run ads, have a counter point run as an ad during the video. Can we do that? So that people have to see 2 sides of the coin? My big concern is the track and trace planning, GTFO of here with that stuff. I will never support a government that is in favor of that. She is right in the Plandemic video, we never repealed the patriot act. Do we really need the patriot act any more?
4. Speaking of free speech, San Antonio started the process of taking away your words. San Antonio is trying to ban the use of "Chinese Virus" and "Kung Fu Virus". So my first thought is, how the eff are these the first words they are banning. I could think of some others that I would prioritize if I took this route. This is the same city that banned Chickfila in the airport which I fly into regularly and I am pissed I don't get my honey biscuit chicken sandwich in the morning. There is no justification for banning speech like this. This is a big story for fringe supporters for Trump. And if you think this is only a fringe part of liberalism, the resolution passed 11-0. You take my words and you take my chickfila, you might as well call yourselves wanna be dictators.
5. POTUS 2020. 3 national polls came out this past weekend, Monmouth, CNBC, and Economist. Monmouth had Biden by 9, the other 2 were 3 and 4 for Biden. I think the magic number is >4 for Biden. Any less than 4 and it is anyone's game. I could totally see this fall election finishing similarly to 2004. This would require no second wave of Covid before the fall and the market to go up slightly from here. Biden being up less than 10 points right now is CRAZY. He should be destroying Trump right now. March and April were probably the worst months in Trump's term. The longer the lockdowns persist, the louder and larger the protests will get, the more support Trump will get. Additionally, Trump and crew will keep pumping the unemployment and stimulus to the people to keep this happy up until election.
I think this has given me a better understanding at what some, maybe @Sevro au Barca is thinking about printing the money, give it to the poor. It is a better way to inject dollars into the market quickly. CLIFS: The world owes a butt load of money in Dollar Denominated Debt. The Dollar has increased in value versus other currencies (VXI). So in addition to interest, these countries have to pay more to offset their currency devaluation. The only way to get dollars is to sell assets (GOLD), US Treasuries, or export goods to the US. Well no one wants to do option 1 unless they have to. UST are solid right now. AND 3, export market tanked to Covid. So these countries were going to default. The Fed gave them dollars in exchange for their currency (the Yen), but it has to be paid back within a few months. That will have to be extended unless Exports to US picks back up. So we are basically controlling this countries with Dollar Debt.
As such, if you are a foreign business or foreign national, you cannot invest locally because your investments may tank with local currency (Think emerging markets). As such, you have to invest in US. You want Dollars and it is the only place to get them. Think about this. If you were a Turkish business man, you investing in AT&T, you got a 7% Dividend, but the Turkish Lira dropped 20%. Now you are receiving a MASSIVE dividend versus your local currency and your stock increased in value. That is what is propping up US stock market right now. The method isn't making money, it is actually preservation and survival. And there is nothing these countries can do until they pay off their dollar denominated debt and the Fed Repo market is just increasing that bubble, which will just make the Dollar value go HIGHER. So with this new knowledge, I am re-evaluating everything. I closed out short options this morning. I don't know how to invest without value, so I am going to sit tight with dollars and my dry powder. I am still holding the GOLD stuff and the Short Retail ETFs, but I will probably trim that position soon. But the point was learning how I effed up. I have seen guys I follow that killed it the past month based on behavioral patters and short flips, so I studied my history and I have lost most of my losses in short positions, so I conclude that I am not good at it and need to step back from it.
2. Give me liberty or Give me Death (unless there is a pandemic). I think you have every right to criticize people opening up, but if you are making a paycheck and you are doing it, you're kind of a azz. In America, you have every right to stay home. But you shouldn't have the right to stop others from leaving their home unless they have infringed someone's rights. If you want more hospital beds, more testing, etc, I think that's fine. But demanding a salon owner in Texas keep her doors shut is ridiculous. Here is where I hate the partisan crap and some showing that I am not 100% GOP nor 100% anit Dem. If that salon owner is open, she should be required to have insurance to cover cases if they are traced to her establishment. In other words, tainted meat issue. If you are open, you take that risk and responsibility. I don't like the Dems demanding she stay closed and I don't like the GOP trying to ban lawsuits for negligence. I think the extra insurance should be the compromise. Maybe the government could offer it. She pays the premium, Govt gets the revenue, revenue goes to health care, etc. etc.
3. Plandemic. After the outrage and craziness, I had to watch this video. Honestly, I don't think it was as bad as many think. I Don't believe all the cookiness and deep state stuff she claimed. The main issue was that the vid said masks could be bad for you and if you have received the flu vaccine, you are more at risk for Covid. Ok, with that said, the video is not that bad. I agree with her that Eric Schmidt is a POS. I don't believe much of it, but I don't think YouTube and Facebook should ban it either. Heck, Twitter got a bunch of idiot journalists to retweet a doctored video of Pence carrying boxes and claim it as factual. That was hilarious. I don't like censorship. Those businesses have a right to do it, but the barrier to entry to a more free social network is ridiculously high, so they really do have kind of a monopoly on information. (That's my big concern). How about since Google and Facebook run ads, have a counter point run as an ad during the video. Can we do that? So that people have to see 2 sides of the coin? My big concern is the track and trace planning, GTFO of here with that stuff. I will never support a government that is in favor of that. She is right in the Plandemic video, we never repealed the patriot act. Do we really need the patriot act any more?
4. Speaking of free speech, San Antonio started the process of taking away your words. San Antonio is trying to ban the use of "Chinese Virus" and "Kung Fu Virus". So my first thought is, how the eff are these the first words they are banning. I could think of some others that I would prioritize if I took this route. This is the same city that banned Chickfila in the airport which I fly into regularly and I am pissed I don't get my honey biscuit chicken sandwich in the morning. There is no justification for banning speech like this. This is a big story for fringe supporters for Trump. And if you think this is only a fringe part of liberalism, the resolution passed 11-0. You take my words and you take my chickfila, you might as well call yourselves wanna be dictators.
5. POTUS 2020. 3 national polls came out this past weekend, Monmouth, CNBC, and Economist. Monmouth had Biden by 9, the other 2 were 3 and 4 for Biden. I think the magic number is >4 for Biden. Any less than 4 and it is anyone's game. I could totally see this fall election finishing similarly to 2004. This would require no second wave of Covid before the fall and the market to go up slightly from here. Biden being up less than 10 points right now is CRAZY. He should be destroying Trump right now. March and April were probably the worst months in Trump's term. The longer the lockdowns persist, the louder and larger the protests will get, the more support Trump will get. Additionally, Trump and crew will keep pumping the unemployment and stimulus to the people to keep this happy up until election.
