1. Coronavirus. Thanks to @Eurotiger for the update from Mainland China, Shanghai, which I suggest you read. I spoke with one of my clients in Taiwan last week, and it is my understanding that most of manufacturing will be shut down this week as well. Some Auto companies announced re-opening of vendor manufacturing in China this week. I will watch to see if that does happen. Here is the problem. You can completely cripple everyone by shutting down only 5% of manufacturing if it is a specific 5%. For example, if you shut down piston ring manufacturing for motors. It is only a small percentage of total manufacturing, but everything builds off of it, so if no piston rings, then no motors can be built. If no motors can be built, then no cars can be built. If no cars can be built, then you stop the inventory build up of other car auto parts. CNN says 780 million people currently under travel restrictions So now, it is not really just the piston ring, but the majority of the parts are not being manufactured right now. It is its on contagion because Plants in US, Korea, Japan, will shut down if they are waiting. They won't pay 1000s of people to sit there doing nothing. The spread of Coronavirus outside of Hubei, but inside China has been slowing in growth rate, but this is according to Chinese reports, which I don't trust and you shouldn't either. For example, last week, China's state media came out and said, spread is slowing, countries should resume flights to China. Later that day, Hubei announced that they were counting everyone who tested positive or showed on scans that they had it, but hadn't been tested yet and those numbers more than tripled infected and death number growth. As a result, Hubei's top CCP party member was fired. The timing was a bit odd. China then removed party leaders in Hong Kong and Macau. Timing is also odd.
Outside of China, the numbers continue to grow. Most of it is because of the petri dish that is the Princess Cruise Ship which now has over 450 infected. Even without the cruise ship, Japan has problems. It has the 3rd most reported cases (outside of cruise ship) 66 cases, behind China and Singapore. Further, in Japan, a surgeon who had symptoms went ahead treating patients for 3 days before being tested and quarantined. Outstanding work by that guy, spend time with people whose immune systems are already compromised and other medical professionals. My buddy did a chart based on the spread outside of China and it keeps beating the exponential trend line. The cruise ship is helping that.
On the Princess Cruise, I think the US waited too long to evacuate the american passengers. That should have been announced when the ship hit 100 infected. I am glad the US did evacuate though.
Speaking of cruises, remember the Westerland Cruise that 5 countries denied permission to dock. It finally docked in Cambodia, then an american debarked the ship, flew to Malaysia and then she tested positive for the disease.
I have been harping on this, but kind of ridiculed about it, but I think this has just a much bigger impact on the global economy. Japan is already in a recession. Korea was nearing it. China is super leveraged. So is Hong Kong. Singapore now announcing they expect a negative GDP for Q1. How bad are things in Hong Kong? No one is visiting and well a Gang recently stole $1000 of Toilet Paper. That's how bad, there is a black market now for wiping your azz. I still think the US is mostly protected from infection from disease, but the economy is another story. The response from China and other countries is to pump in cash and keep rates low for those stressed to refinance. This is like 2006/7 in the mortgage refinance timeline.
2. The Donald visits Daytona. This trip couldn't have went better for the DJT. He had his crowd, they loved the flyover, they loved the pace lap. It was in florida, a vital swing state that DJT has to win to win re-election. The only negative was the weather ended up postponing the event, but good news is that the only pub for the Daytona event yesterday was about POTUS.
3. Bloomberg has some issues. The internet has brought about the ability of sleuths to study your history and play your negatives on a loop. This week, Bloomberg's old policies, but more importantly interviews, caused substantial damage to his possibilities at winning African American vote, midwest farm vote, and female vote because of the illumination of his history. The internet is great and at the same time, very evil.
4. POTUS 2020. Most think Bernie had a good day in New Hampshire, but I think he had a bad day compared to what he was expected to have. First off, he didn't win by much over Mayor Pete and they ended up with same amount of delegates. Secondly, the battle between progressives and moderates is starting to take shape and a higher number voted for Moderates of AmyK, Mayor Pete, and Biden than voted for Bernie and Warren. Third, Donald got an impressive number for the incumbent. Bloomberg is getting hit with all this negative pub, but he is closing in on betting odds with Bernie, which I found odd. We have Nevada and South Carolina for the next two saturday primaries, then super tuesday, basically when the nom should be decided or there will be a brokered convention. Biden has to win South Carolina, or he is done. On Nevada, the moderates just want someone other than Bernie to win. If Bernie wins, he then has a lot of momentum heading into Super Tuesday, winning 3 states popular vote. I think Warren needs to top 4 spot, or she should bow out.
Outside of China, the numbers continue to grow. Most of it is because of the petri dish that is the Princess Cruise Ship which now has over 450 infected. Even without the cruise ship, Japan has problems. It has the 3rd most reported cases (outside of cruise ship) 66 cases, behind China and Singapore. Further, in Japan, a surgeon who had symptoms went ahead treating patients for 3 days before being tested and quarantined. Outstanding work by that guy, spend time with people whose immune systems are already compromised and other medical professionals. My buddy did a chart based on the spread outside of China and it keeps beating the exponential trend line. The cruise ship is helping that.
On the Princess Cruise, I think the US waited too long to evacuate the american passengers. That should have been announced when the ship hit 100 infected. I am glad the US did evacuate though.
Speaking of cruises, remember the Westerland Cruise that 5 countries denied permission to dock. It finally docked in Cambodia, then an american debarked the ship, flew to Malaysia and then she tested positive for the disease.
I have been harping on this, but kind of ridiculed about it, but I think this has just a much bigger impact on the global economy. Japan is already in a recession. Korea was nearing it. China is super leveraged. So is Hong Kong. Singapore now announcing they expect a negative GDP for Q1. How bad are things in Hong Kong? No one is visiting and well a Gang recently stole $1000 of Toilet Paper. That's how bad, there is a black market now for wiping your azz. I still think the US is mostly protected from infection from disease, but the economy is another story. The response from China and other countries is to pump in cash and keep rates low for those stressed to refinance. This is like 2006/7 in the mortgage refinance timeline.
2. The Donald visits Daytona. This trip couldn't have went better for the DJT. He had his crowd, they loved the flyover, they loved the pace lap. It was in florida, a vital swing state that DJT has to win to win re-election. The only negative was the weather ended up postponing the event, but good news is that the only pub for the Daytona event yesterday was about POTUS.
3. Bloomberg has some issues. The internet has brought about the ability of sleuths to study your history and play your negatives on a loop. This week, Bloomberg's old policies, but more importantly interviews, caused substantial damage to his possibilities at winning African American vote, midwest farm vote, and female vote because of the illumination of his history. The internet is great and at the same time, very evil.
4. POTUS 2020. Most think Bernie had a good day in New Hampshire, but I think he had a bad day compared to what he was expected to have. First off, he didn't win by much over Mayor Pete and they ended up with same amount of delegates. Secondly, the battle between progressives and moderates is starting to take shape and a higher number voted for Moderates of AmyK, Mayor Pete, and Biden than voted for Bernie and Warren. Third, Donald got an impressive number for the incumbent. Bloomberg is getting hit with all this negative pub, but he is closing in on betting odds with Bernie, which I found odd. We have Nevada and South Carolina for the next two saturday primaries, then super tuesday, basically when the nom should be decided or there will be a brokered convention. Biden has to win South Carolina, or he is done. On Nevada, the moderates just want someone other than Bernie to win. If Bernie wins, he then has a lot of momentum heading into Super Tuesday, winning 3 states popular vote. I think Warren needs to top 4 spot, or she should bow out.
