Not gonna write this as a full front page story or anything, but with spring ball over, figured I'd take a look ahead to next season. I wrote on Saturday, and fully believe, this is an unbelievably critical season for the future of the program and the head coach.
You've got an all SEC QB and a potential first round NFL pick at DT coming back for their fourth seasons. You absolutely HAVE to capitalize this year. The 2019 season is likely to be a step back (whether it's a small one or a big one, who knows, but it's likely not as good as this one). So this is the year you have to see PROOF that Barry Odom is the guy to lead Mizzou forward.
He didn't give us that last year. He did enough to buy another season. But he didn't do anything to prove to you that he's the answer going forward.
You start the season with two games we're going to assume are losses. I'm not saying they can't beat UGA or Bama, but it's extremely unlikely.
You start the season with two games that you have to absolutely assume are wins with UT-Martin and Wyoming at home.
That leaves eight games. Vandy at home, Memphis at home absolutely SHOULD be wins. I won't put them in the lock category of the two above, but they need to be wins. So you're sitting 4-2 with half the schedule left.
Those six games are:
Arkansas and Kentucky at home
South Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue and Florida on the road
To me, the bar for this season is 8-4. That's the "okay, I've seen definite progress and have a tangible reason to believe this is going to work going forward" mark. 7-5, 6-6, it's a bowl game, fine, but it's nothing special, it doesn't really feature any big wins and you lose Lock and Beckner and if you slip back out of a bowl game in 2019 you're changing coaches. So for me to go forward knowing Odom is here for a little bit and believing he's the guy, you've got to win eight (not counting a bowl game).
That means from those six games I listed above, you've got to go 4-2. I don't think that's unreasonable. You need to beat Arkansas and Kentucky at home. You were as good or better than them last year and they're at home. Tennessee and Florida aren't going to stay down where they're at long term, but they also aren't going to be world beaters in year one under a new coach, so you ought to be able to at least split those two. Then split South Carolina and Purdue on the road and you've got eight.
Long term, like I said, Tennessee and Florida are likely to improve. I'm not sure they'll both bounce all the way back, but on an annual basis, you'd like to see Missouri be better than one of the two. Allow that UGA is probably better than you, what it means is you need to be better than Vandy (which you pretty much always have been), Kentucky (which you pretty much always have been) and South Carolina (which is probably the most comparable SEC East program to Missouri over a long period of time). If you do that, you're averaging third in the East and probably eight wins. Your bad seasons are six wins and 5th, I'll even give you a 5-7 every few years. Your good years are 10 wins, challenging for a division title, maybe something special lines up and you're a tick above that every now and again. The average is eight.
That, to me, is a realistic expectation. But I need to see it this year. If you can't get to eight with this roster in your third year, I've got significant doubts for the future. I'm not going to say I'd fire someone for going 7-5, but it wouldn't instill long term confidence in me. You win fewer than seven and the future is completely up in the air.
We'll have a long offseason to debate all this, but just thought I'd throw out some initial week after the spring game thoughts.
You've got an all SEC QB and a potential first round NFL pick at DT coming back for their fourth seasons. You absolutely HAVE to capitalize this year. The 2019 season is likely to be a step back (whether it's a small one or a big one, who knows, but it's likely not as good as this one). So this is the year you have to see PROOF that Barry Odom is the guy to lead Mizzou forward.
He didn't give us that last year. He did enough to buy another season. But he didn't do anything to prove to you that he's the answer going forward.
You start the season with two games we're going to assume are losses. I'm not saying they can't beat UGA or Bama, but it's extremely unlikely.
You start the season with two games that you have to absolutely assume are wins with UT-Martin and Wyoming at home.
That leaves eight games. Vandy at home, Memphis at home absolutely SHOULD be wins. I won't put them in the lock category of the two above, but they need to be wins. So you're sitting 4-2 with half the schedule left.
Those six games are:
Arkansas and Kentucky at home
South Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue and Florida on the road
To me, the bar for this season is 8-4. That's the "okay, I've seen definite progress and have a tangible reason to believe this is going to work going forward" mark. 7-5, 6-6, it's a bowl game, fine, but it's nothing special, it doesn't really feature any big wins and you lose Lock and Beckner and if you slip back out of a bowl game in 2019 you're changing coaches. So for me to go forward knowing Odom is here for a little bit and believing he's the guy, you've got to win eight (not counting a bowl game).
That means from those six games I listed above, you've got to go 4-2. I don't think that's unreasonable. You need to beat Arkansas and Kentucky at home. You were as good or better than them last year and they're at home. Tennessee and Florida aren't going to stay down where they're at long term, but they also aren't going to be world beaters in year one under a new coach, so you ought to be able to at least split those two. Then split South Carolina and Purdue on the road and you've got eight.
Long term, like I said, Tennessee and Florida are likely to improve. I'm not sure they'll both bounce all the way back, but on an annual basis, you'd like to see Missouri be better than one of the two. Allow that UGA is probably better than you, what it means is you need to be better than Vandy (which you pretty much always have been), Kentucky (which you pretty much always have been) and South Carolina (which is probably the most comparable SEC East program to Missouri over a long period of time). If you do that, you're averaging third in the East and probably eight wins. Your bad seasons are six wins and 5th, I'll even give you a 5-7 every few years. Your good years are 10 wins, challenging for a division title, maybe something special lines up and you're a tick above that every now and again. The average is eight.
That, to me, is a realistic expectation. But I need to see it this year. If you can't get to eight with this roster in your third year, I've got significant doubts for the future. I'm not going to say I'd fire someone for going 7-5, but it wouldn't instill long term confidence in me. You win fewer than seven and the future is completely up in the air.
We'll have a long offseason to debate all this, but just thought I'd throw out some initial week after the spring game thoughts.
