Give her a spin, I thought it was cool.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Things I noticed.
- SEC has a 33% chance of getting 2 teams in, ACC has a 2% chance.
- By a large margin (78% likely) it presents that if Miami beats Clemson, Miami is in.
- Not by a huge margin, but the forecast believes tOSU jumps Bama should tOSU beat Wiscy.
- The above leaves that Bama needs TCU to beat OU to feel good about their playoff chances. The other less likely option is if tOSU beats Wiscy, but the Committee keeps Bama in front.
- Further to the above, if TCU wins AND USC wins the choice between Bama and USC is essentially a coin flip with Clemson as an outside chance should they have lost.
- Based on this model, its pretty hard to find a scenario where Clemson gets in with a loss (but its possible if TCU upsets OU)
Scenarios:
SEC Champion in, duh
ACC Champion very likely in (surprised Miami being in was so definitive, 78% chance with ACC win)
B10 Champion probably in (but if tOSU wins, Bama still could sneak in ahead of tOSU)
B12 OU in with win (duh), Bama likely in with OU loss and USC loss, also USC has a equal shot to Bama if they beat Standford in this scenario.
Here are his game by game probabilities:
Clemson 71% over Miami
OU 63% over TCU
Auburn 54% over GA
Wiscy 44% over tOSU
USC 45% over Stanford
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Things I noticed.
- SEC has a 33% chance of getting 2 teams in, ACC has a 2% chance.
- By a large margin (78% likely) it presents that if Miami beats Clemson, Miami is in.
- Not by a huge margin, but the forecast believes tOSU jumps Bama should tOSU beat Wiscy.
- The above leaves that Bama needs TCU to beat OU to feel good about their playoff chances. The other less likely option is if tOSU beats Wiscy, but the Committee keeps Bama in front.
- Further to the above, if TCU wins AND USC wins the choice between Bama and USC is essentially a coin flip with Clemson as an outside chance should they have lost.
- Based on this model, its pretty hard to find a scenario where Clemson gets in with a loss (but its possible if TCU upsets OU)
Scenarios:
SEC Champion in, duh
ACC Champion very likely in (surprised Miami being in was so definitive, 78% chance with ACC win)
B10 Champion probably in (but if tOSU wins, Bama still could sneak in ahead of tOSU)
B12 OU in with win (duh), Bama likely in with OU loss and USC loss, also USC has a equal shot to Bama if they beat Standford in this scenario.
Here are his game by game probabilities:
Clemson 71% over Miami
OU 63% over TCU
Auburn 54% over GA
Wiscy 44% over tOSU
USC 45% over Stanford
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