This post is going to serve two purposes: One, it puts everything in one place. Two, it's probably more geared toward the people that didn't spend every minute of yesterday afternoon/evening on here. A lot of you will read this and know most or all of it already. Some aren't here as frequently and won't.
On most of the big recruitments, whichever way they go, I try to wrap up what happened and why it went the way it did. A lot of this is stuff I know, some is stuff I think. You can choose to believe me or not. Up to you, not going to reveal sources or argue with anybody about how good they are or whether I should be able to predict the future.
When Wingo visited Texas for the game against Rice, my guy at Texas called me on Sunday night and said "Texas is extremely confident and I think he actually might have committed while he was here." That's when I switched my prediction to Texas. Over the next few weeks, I had a couple of people tell me "If he was committing today, it would be Texas."
That stood true through the LSU visit. Coming out of that visit, probably Monday or Tuesday, we started to just get a flood of "Missouri took the lead this weekend." Over the next week or so, a flood of people that cover Missouri, cover Texas and generally cover recruiting began to switch their forecasts to Mizzou. I was part of that group.
About a week later, word started to come out Wingo was moving his decision up. I texted his father and asked if that was accurate. He said "It is going to come soon, that's all I can tell you. And he will be at the game this weekend." This was the South Carolina game. At that point, there was overwhelming thought it was Missouri. First of all, as we had always said, moving the date up could only be good for Mizzou because it meant that he could start getting NIL money. That isn't a thing he can do at Texas (or anywhere else) before he's on campus. Second, to move up the date AND come to a game AND kind of lean into the momentum for Mizzou seemed telling to everyone.
I do not know if Wingo ever officially told the Missouri staff "I'm committed." I don't know if he ever officially told the Texas staff that either. I do know that the Missouri staff felt very, very confident and certainly got the impression he was theirs. I have been told there were people in St. Louis and people at SLUH who were told by Ryan that it was going to be Missouri. That was true as of Tuesday afternoon. I checked with a number of people that were connected to this in various ways and they all felt the same. One person told me "98% confident, but until he says it, you sweat."
Tuesday night some whispers started coming out about Texas. I do not know if the Longhorns were in town. I do know that they were in contact with him (so was Missouri, this is not unusual). I reached out to my Texas guy and told him I was starting to hear some rumors. His response: "Really? I'd honestly kind of quit following it because I thought it was over." Obviously he, and other Texas people, began to start following it again. By Wednesday morning, the Longhorns had serious momentum.
My St. Louis sources still believed it was Mizzou for most of Wednesday morning. I can tell you concern inside the program steadily grew throughout the day. We left for St. Louis a little after 12:30. At that point, no one knew for sure where Wingo was going. We got to SLUH around 2:45. Still nobody knew or had been officially told. However, the clear momentum at this point was Texas and we definitely were thinking we'd probably just spent two hours in the car to livestream a commitment to the Longhorns. I talked to quite a few people in the building. None of them knew. One person who is very much in the loop on things told me at about 330: "As of 1 o'clock it was Texas. Then he got a phone call and it was 50/50."
Obviously he committed to Texas. I would describe the feeling in the room as surprised if not stunned. I think the vast majority of people there expected him to pick Mizzou. Even though I knew there was a decent chance he was picking UT and might have even put them as the favorite at 4:00, I was surprised too. Shortly before the ceremony started I got three texts that basically said the same thing: "Does he have the guts to get up there and say Texas today?" Not because there's anything wrong with Texas or it's a bad program or anything else. But simply because everything that had happened and been done in the previous two weeks had pointed to Missouri. And this is a Missouri kid. With a lot of Missouri people in the audience. When I posted what I thought would happen yesterday morning a big reason I still felt like Mizzou would win out is because I just thought if he wasn't going to pick Missouri he would postpone the announcement. Because picking Texas in two weeks wouldn't have the same sting for Mizzou and its fans that picking Texas yesterday would have. Don't get me wrong, it still would have hurt, but if he'd delayed the announcement, we'd all have known that it either wasn't going to be Missouri or at least the decision wasn't final. In the end, the answer was, yes, he does have the guts to say Texas.
I know he said the decision was made two months ago. And I believe the initial decision was. But there are simply too many people on all sides of this who are saying the same thing for me to believe that it was Texas all along. Missouri sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. St. Louis sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. National sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. And even Texas sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. If you think all of those people are wrong or all of those people fell for the same lie, that's your right. I simply don't believe that. I believe it was Missouri on Tuesday and it was Texas on Wednesday.
Immediately after Wingo's announcement, Frank Cusumano interviewed Ryan and his father.
Jarod and I saw this clip in the car on the way back. We both immediately just laughed. It's one of the most stunning things I've seen. I mean, he committed to Texas literally five minutes ago. If he didn't know where he wanted to go, why commit on Wednesday? And if this is just a negotiating ploy to drive up the price, certainly their prerogative, but kind of a dangerous game.
So the question is, does Missouri still pursue? As of right now, I'm not sure. I will say if it was me, I wouldn't. A few reasons:
*This isn't the first time a recruitment in this family has gone this way. Is it fair to hold Ryan responsible for his brother's recruitment 15 years ago (Christ, I'm old) under an entirely different regime and coaching staff? Probably not. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. If you pursue Wingo again, you're letting him know he has all the power and all the leverage and you'll do anything it takes. If you decide that's worth it, fine. I'm not sure I would. I'd be worried about getting Caleb Love'd again.
*There has to be a limit to what you'll pay. And make no mistake, what you'll pay is a part of this. It may not be the only thing. It may or may not be the most important thing. But it's a part of it. Based on everything I've heard, Missouri made a very lucrative and competitive NIL pitch to Ryan. I can't say for sure if the pitch Texas made this week was more or not. I don't know that. But I know that Missouri was absolutely competitive and if the numbers I'm hearing are accurate, they're numbers that I haven't heard around any other recruitment or current player at Mizzou. So do you go beyond that? And if you do, what's that mean for the current locker room? That absolutely is a factor. A freshman can't come in and be earning more than your all-American at the same position. These kids know what other kids are making, or at least they have an idea (trust me, it already heavily contributed to Missouri losing one really good St. Louis area receiver). If you're Theo Wease or Mookie Cooper, both of whom are putting together really nice, if not Luther Burden level, years, what's your reaction? I'd say you want more or you just say "You know what? I can graduate and transfer again or maybe even give the NFL a shot."
These are things that have to be considered. Not by me. I'm not in charge of it. But Missouri's staff absolutely has to think about these things before it dives back into recruiting a kid who more or less told you at his commitment ceremony that he wants you to keep recruiting him.
Like I said, I'm not sure what Missouri's path forward is from here. That will become a little more clear probably in the next couple of weeks. When we know more, we'll pass it on.
On most of the big recruitments, whichever way they go, I try to wrap up what happened and why it went the way it did. A lot of this is stuff I know, some is stuff I think. You can choose to believe me or not. Up to you, not going to reveal sources or argue with anybody about how good they are or whether I should be able to predict the future.
When Wingo visited Texas for the game against Rice, my guy at Texas called me on Sunday night and said "Texas is extremely confident and I think he actually might have committed while he was here." That's when I switched my prediction to Texas. Over the next few weeks, I had a couple of people tell me "If he was committing today, it would be Texas."
That stood true through the LSU visit. Coming out of that visit, probably Monday or Tuesday, we started to just get a flood of "Missouri took the lead this weekend." Over the next week or so, a flood of people that cover Missouri, cover Texas and generally cover recruiting began to switch their forecasts to Mizzou. I was part of that group.
About a week later, word started to come out Wingo was moving his decision up. I texted his father and asked if that was accurate. He said "It is going to come soon, that's all I can tell you. And he will be at the game this weekend." This was the South Carolina game. At that point, there was overwhelming thought it was Missouri. First of all, as we had always said, moving the date up could only be good for Mizzou because it meant that he could start getting NIL money. That isn't a thing he can do at Texas (or anywhere else) before he's on campus. Second, to move up the date AND come to a game AND kind of lean into the momentum for Mizzou seemed telling to everyone.
I do not know if Wingo ever officially told the Missouri staff "I'm committed." I don't know if he ever officially told the Texas staff that either. I do know that the Missouri staff felt very, very confident and certainly got the impression he was theirs. I have been told there were people in St. Louis and people at SLUH who were told by Ryan that it was going to be Missouri. That was true as of Tuesday afternoon. I checked with a number of people that were connected to this in various ways and they all felt the same. One person told me "98% confident, but until he says it, you sweat."
Tuesday night some whispers started coming out about Texas. I do not know if the Longhorns were in town. I do know that they were in contact with him (so was Missouri, this is not unusual). I reached out to my Texas guy and told him I was starting to hear some rumors. His response: "Really? I'd honestly kind of quit following it because I thought it was over." Obviously he, and other Texas people, began to start following it again. By Wednesday morning, the Longhorns had serious momentum.
My St. Louis sources still believed it was Mizzou for most of Wednesday morning. I can tell you concern inside the program steadily grew throughout the day. We left for St. Louis a little after 12:30. At that point, no one knew for sure where Wingo was going. We got to SLUH around 2:45. Still nobody knew or had been officially told. However, the clear momentum at this point was Texas and we definitely were thinking we'd probably just spent two hours in the car to livestream a commitment to the Longhorns. I talked to quite a few people in the building. None of them knew. One person who is very much in the loop on things told me at about 330: "As of 1 o'clock it was Texas. Then he got a phone call and it was 50/50."
Obviously he committed to Texas. I would describe the feeling in the room as surprised if not stunned. I think the vast majority of people there expected him to pick Mizzou. Even though I knew there was a decent chance he was picking UT and might have even put them as the favorite at 4:00, I was surprised too. Shortly before the ceremony started I got three texts that basically said the same thing: "Does he have the guts to get up there and say Texas today?" Not because there's anything wrong with Texas or it's a bad program or anything else. But simply because everything that had happened and been done in the previous two weeks had pointed to Missouri. And this is a Missouri kid. With a lot of Missouri people in the audience. When I posted what I thought would happen yesterday morning a big reason I still felt like Mizzou would win out is because I just thought if he wasn't going to pick Missouri he would postpone the announcement. Because picking Texas in two weeks wouldn't have the same sting for Mizzou and its fans that picking Texas yesterday would have. Don't get me wrong, it still would have hurt, but if he'd delayed the announcement, we'd all have known that it either wasn't going to be Missouri or at least the decision wasn't final. In the end, the answer was, yes, he does have the guts to say Texas.
I know he said the decision was made two months ago. And I believe the initial decision was. But there are simply too many people on all sides of this who are saying the same thing for me to believe that it was Texas all along. Missouri sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. St. Louis sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. National sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. And even Texas sources are saying it was Missouri on Tuesday. If you think all of those people are wrong or all of those people fell for the same lie, that's your right. I simply don't believe that. I believe it was Missouri on Tuesday and it was Texas on Wednesday.
Immediately after Wingo's announcement, Frank Cusumano interviewed Ryan and his father.
Jarod and I saw this clip in the car on the way back. We both immediately just laughed. It's one of the most stunning things I've seen. I mean, he committed to Texas literally five minutes ago. If he didn't know where he wanted to go, why commit on Wednesday? And if this is just a negotiating ploy to drive up the price, certainly their prerogative, but kind of a dangerous game.
So the question is, does Missouri still pursue? As of right now, I'm not sure. I will say if it was me, I wouldn't. A few reasons:
*This isn't the first time a recruitment in this family has gone this way. Is it fair to hold Ryan responsible for his brother's recruitment 15 years ago (Christ, I'm old) under an entirely different regime and coaching staff? Probably not. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. If you pursue Wingo again, you're letting him know he has all the power and all the leverage and you'll do anything it takes. If you decide that's worth it, fine. I'm not sure I would. I'd be worried about getting Caleb Love'd again.
*There has to be a limit to what you'll pay. And make no mistake, what you'll pay is a part of this. It may not be the only thing. It may or may not be the most important thing. But it's a part of it. Based on everything I've heard, Missouri made a very lucrative and competitive NIL pitch to Ryan. I can't say for sure if the pitch Texas made this week was more or not. I don't know that. But I know that Missouri was absolutely competitive and if the numbers I'm hearing are accurate, they're numbers that I haven't heard around any other recruitment or current player at Mizzou. So do you go beyond that? And if you do, what's that mean for the current locker room? That absolutely is a factor. A freshman can't come in and be earning more than your all-American at the same position. These kids know what other kids are making, or at least they have an idea (trust me, it already heavily contributed to Missouri losing one really good St. Louis area receiver). If you're Theo Wease or Mookie Cooper, both of whom are putting together really nice, if not Luther Burden level, years, what's your reaction? I'd say you want more or you just say "You know what? I can graduate and transfer again or maybe even give the NFL a shot."
These are things that have to be considered. Not by me. I'm not in charge of it. But Missouri's staff absolutely has to think about these things before it dives back into recruiting a kid who more or less told you at his commitment ceremony that he wants you to keep recruiting him.
Like I said, I'm not sure what Missouri's path forward is from here. That will become a little more clear probably in the next couple of weeks. When we know more, we'll pass it on.
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