A Saturday morning brunch of hoops. Count me in. Let's talk about it.
1. Alabama. Good team. Maybe an elite team. Pomeroy had them 7th, second only behind Illinois at 5th on our schedule. Guess that's a bad omen for top 10 teams wanting to avoid a 3 point loss at Mizzou Arena, huh? For those fellow dorks who've enjoyed my bracket projections, I had Alabama (and Illinois) as a two. You could've made a strong argument they were deserving of a one as of yesterday. I had them on the two line because: 1. They dropped a game at OU to a Sooners team missing a few starters; and 2. Michigan has been on pause. The numbers were a dead heat. Gotta dig a tiebreaker out somewhere to appease the masses. Regardless, Mizzou now has claimed 3 wins against what I consider to be top 4 seeds as of the moment. They're 3-1 in said games. These teams aren't on Baylor or Gonzaga level, but they're pretty much a representation of the best of the rest. This was Bama's second loss since December 19th when they underwent a renaissance of sorts. Early on they were unimpressive. Losses to decent Stanford, Clemson and Western Kentucky teams aren't a dealbreaker, but they don't inspire confidence as a legit F4 competitor. Then they caught fire. +8 at Tennessee. +15 vs. Florida. +20 in Lexington. +31 vs. the Hogs. +30 in Baton Rouge. They were straight wrecking fools. They've cooled a bit of late, only going 3-1 coming into our game with "only" 8-18 point wins over MSU, UK and LSU. Regardless, undefeated in league play. They're a damned good team.
2. But enough about them. Mizzou continues to pad their impressive win ledger. Mizzou's resume is basically that of a Burroughs grad who went to Harvard, coming back to STL and interviewing with a panel of JBS alums. Pretty difficult to pick apart and a shoe in for the ultimate goal of a tournament appearance. Oregon dropped off the "Quad 1" ledger, and aTm dropped off the quad 2. Both by a few spots. So...Mizzou just added another no doubt q1 win today to compensate (Bama was 8 in NET). No big deal right?
3. I'm just going to link my Wednesday thread here. No need rehash. Completely covered in these thought in Bullet #3.
4. I thought early on, Mizzou was playing some of their best ball on the season. Alabama wasn't. Mizzou had an impact on that. Tigers were poised for a blowout at the 1st half 10:00 mark. At Halftime. At the 2nd half 10:00 mark. And then not. Bama is a dangerous team that can put up points in a flash (and defend as well). But for 30-35 minutes, Mizzou had them completely muzzled. Then shit kinda fell apart. Notably, over Mizzou's last 18 possessions they scored 6 points. 2 from a Mitch post up fadeaway, 2 from Tilmon making FT and 2 with XP at the end. Not the way you want to close it out. Especially when you shoot 1-12 with 3 turnovers (2 of the HR variety). Mizzou seemingly needs to be in tight games. A tight game is to 2021 Mizzou hoops what a bubble screen is to Dave Yost. They're pretty damn good in those, but man, other things can work too!
5. Out of my own curiosity...I've referenced the 93-94 team here lately. Not that it's a perfect comp. That team did what this team won't, a perfect conference record. But there are similarities. Not great metrics, huge # of upperclassmen. But there's something else. Tight game performance. This year's iteration is 6-1 in games decided by 8 or less through 16 played. That 93-94 team was 11-1 in 26 regular season games. That team was better, I'm pretty confident in that. But the ratio checks out. Winning close games is a memory maker, until you stop doing it.
6. The numbers:
2 PT
Mizzou: 25-42 59.5%
Alabama: 13-41 31.7%
3 PT
Mizzou: 3-20 15.0%
Alabama: 9-25 36.0%
FT
Mizzou: 9-14 64.3%
Alabama: 12-21 57.1% (might want to look at that Tide faithful in wanting the foul call on Jones)
O-Reb%
Mizzou: 23.1%
Alabama: 26.5%
TO%
Mizzou: 21.1% (after NONE in the first 10 minutes)
Alabama: 17.1%
PPP
Mizzou: .897
Alabama: .857
If you would've showed me before the game the numbers from the middle four categories, I wouldn't have liked our chances. At all. But Mizzou absolutely DOMINATED inside the arc. On both ends. Yes, Bama missed two dunks and countless other short shots. Well, in exchange, Mizzou stopped trying to get those shots the last 5-7 minutes (0 rim attempts in last 12 shots). But the work Mizzou did in the first 35 minutes there carried the day. If my numbers are right, through 35 minutes Mizzou was 24-38 and Bama was 8-34. Just incredible performance there. And not being able to carry that through the last 5 minutes nearly burned them.
7. MVP. It's a double for two guys who have been close, and far away from taking it this year. Kobe and Mitch get the nod. The two combined for:
19 points
9-14 shooting
17 boards
4 blocks
2 steals
3 TO
5 fouls.
Kobe had great back to back plays right before the tigers started sliding. He fed Tilmon in the post for his 2 late FT's. Mitch hit our only FG make in about 5 minutes. Mitch came over for the monster swat on Jones to seal the deal.
What's more, those two were often matched up with Herb Jones. He's averaging 12 and 8 this year. Not huge numbers, but when he plays well, Bama plays well. Today?
22 MP (thanks to attacking him)
7 points (2-6)
5 boards
2 TO
4 fouls
Getting him out allowed Mizzou unfettered access to the tin. He sat much of the first half with 3. Coincidence? I think not.
Dru and Mark had exceptional first halves. Basically getting their season numbers. That's good, because they did not make a shot in the second stanza.
Pinson was alright as was Tilmon. Pickett was a non-factor (which hopefully he's ok).
So essentially, Mizzou won against a 2 seed without any of their top 4 carrying them for 40 minutes. All contributed. None played bad (save for Dru's 6 TO). But none had a "difference maker" performance today.
8. We've had college hoops played on an aircraft carrier before. Today we had one called from a submarine. Good stuff ESPN.
9. Next up is Ole Miss. They've got a salty defense that just knocked of the Volunteers this week. Tigers will have to bring the energy again to keep the train rolling.
10. Oh yeah, those numbers...
Coming into today, Mizzou's resume ranked 5th per KPI. They just beat the #4 team. It ranked 6th in ESPN SOR. They just beat the #5 team. Both are (or were) significant components of the NCAA committee's "team sheets." NET was at 33. Bama was at 8. All stand to move up tomorrow when they're updated.
Metrics are...improving?
Pomeroy: 29
Torvik: 20
Hold on to that 15-20 point lead, and you could've shaved off 5-7 more spots. They didn't, it won't.
Because, Mizzou....
1. Alabama. Good team. Maybe an elite team. Pomeroy had them 7th, second only behind Illinois at 5th on our schedule. Guess that's a bad omen for top 10 teams wanting to avoid a 3 point loss at Mizzou Arena, huh? For those fellow dorks who've enjoyed my bracket projections, I had Alabama (and Illinois) as a two. You could've made a strong argument they were deserving of a one as of yesterday. I had them on the two line because: 1. They dropped a game at OU to a Sooners team missing a few starters; and 2. Michigan has been on pause. The numbers were a dead heat. Gotta dig a tiebreaker out somewhere to appease the masses. Regardless, Mizzou now has claimed 3 wins against what I consider to be top 4 seeds as of the moment. They're 3-1 in said games. These teams aren't on Baylor or Gonzaga level, but they're pretty much a representation of the best of the rest. This was Bama's second loss since December 19th when they underwent a renaissance of sorts. Early on they were unimpressive. Losses to decent Stanford, Clemson and Western Kentucky teams aren't a dealbreaker, but they don't inspire confidence as a legit F4 competitor. Then they caught fire. +8 at Tennessee. +15 vs. Florida. +20 in Lexington. +31 vs. the Hogs. +30 in Baton Rouge. They were straight wrecking fools. They've cooled a bit of late, only going 3-1 coming into our game with "only" 8-18 point wins over MSU, UK and LSU. Regardless, undefeated in league play. They're a damned good team.
2. But enough about them. Mizzou continues to pad their impressive win ledger. Mizzou's resume is basically that of a Burroughs grad who went to Harvard, coming back to STL and interviewing with a panel of JBS alums. Pretty difficult to pick apart and a shoe in for the ultimate goal of a tournament appearance. Oregon dropped off the "Quad 1" ledger, and aTm dropped off the quad 2. Both by a few spots. So...Mizzou just added another no doubt q1 win today to compensate (Bama was 8 in NET). No big deal right?
3. I'm just going to link my Wednesday thread here. No need rehash. Completely covered in these thought in Bullet #3.
4. I thought early on, Mizzou was playing some of their best ball on the season. Alabama wasn't. Mizzou had an impact on that. Tigers were poised for a blowout at the 1st half 10:00 mark. At Halftime. At the 2nd half 10:00 mark. And then not. Bama is a dangerous team that can put up points in a flash (and defend as well). But for 30-35 minutes, Mizzou had them completely muzzled. Then shit kinda fell apart. Notably, over Mizzou's last 18 possessions they scored 6 points. 2 from a Mitch post up fadeaway, 2 from Tilmon making FT and 2 with XP at the end. Not the way you want to close it out. Especially when you shoot 1-12 with 3 turnovers (2 of the HR variety). Mizzou seemingly needs to be in tight games. A tight game is to 2021 Mizzou hoops what a bubble screen is to Dave Yost. They're pretty damn good in those, but man, other things can work too!
5. Out of my own curiosity...I've referenced the 93-94 team here lately. Not that it's a perfect comp. That team did what this team won't, a perfect conference record. But there are similarities. Not great metrics, huge # of upperclassmen. But there's something else. Tight game performance. This year's iteration is 6-1 in games decided by 8 or less through 16 played. That 93-94 team was 11-1 in 26 regular season games. That team was better, I'm pretty confident in that. But the ratio checks out. Winning close games is a memory maker, until you stop doing it.
6. The numbers:
2 PT
Mizzou: 25-42 59.5%
Alabama: 13-41 31.7%
3 PT
Mizzou: 3-20 15.0%
Alabama: 9-25 36.0%
FT
Mizzou: 9-14 64.3%
Alabama: 12-21 57.1% (might want to look at that Tide faithful in wanting the foul call on Jones)
O-Reb%
Mizzou: 23.1%
Alabama: 26.5%
TO%
Mizzou: 21.1% (after NONE in the first 10 minutes)
Alabama: 17.1%
PPP
Mizzou: .897
Alabama: .857
If you would've showed me before the game the numbers from the middle four categories, I wouldn't have liked our chances. At all. But Mizzou absolutely DOMINATED inside the arc. On both ends. Yes, Bama missed two dunks and countless other short shots. Well, in exchange, Mizzou stopped trying to get those shots the last 5-7 minutes (0 rim attempts in last 12 shots). But the work Mizzou did in the first 35 minutes there carried the day. If my numbers are right, through 35 minutes Mizzou was 24-38 and Bama was 8-34. Just incredible performance there. And not being able to carry that through the last 5 minutes nearly burned them.
7. MVP. It's a double for two guys who have been close, and far away from taking it this year. Kobe and Mitch get the nod. The two combined for:
19 points
9-14 shooting
17 boards
4 blocks
2 steals
3 TO
5 fouls.
Kobe had great back to back plays right before the tigers started sliding. He fed Tilmon in the post for his 2 late FT's. Mitch hit our only FG make in about 5 minutes. Mitch came over for the monster swat on Jones to seal the deal.
What's more, those two were often matched up with Herb Jones. He's averaging 12 and 8 this year. Not huge numbers, but when he plays well, Bama plays well. Today?
22 MP (thanks to attacking him)
7 points (2-6)
5 boards
2 TO
4 fouls
Getting him out allowed Mizzou unfettered access to the tin. He sat much of the first half with 3. Coincidence? I think not.
Dru and Mark had exceptional first halves. Basically getting their season numbers. That's good, because they did not make a shot in the second stanza.
Pinson was alright as was Tilmon. Pickett was a non-factor (which hopefully he's ok).
So essentially, Mizzou won against a 2 seed without any of their top 4 carrying them for 40 minutes. All contributed. None played bad (save for Dru's 6 TO). But none had a "difference maker" performance today.
8. We've had college hoops played on an aircraft carrier before. Today we had one called from a submarine. Good stuff ESPN.
9. Next up is Ole Miss. They've got a salty defense that just knocked of the Volunteers this week. Tigers will have to bring the energy again to keep the train rolling.
10. Oh yeah, those numbers...
Coming into today, Mizzou's resume ranked 5th per KPI. They just beat the #4 team. It ranked 6th in ESPN SOR. They just beat the #5 team. Both are (or were) significant components of the NCAA committee's "team sheets." NET was at 33. Bama was at 8. All stand to move up tomorrow when they're updated.
Metrics are...improving?
Pomeroy: 29
Torvik: 20
Hold on to that 15-20 point lead, and you could've shaved off 5-7 more spots. They didn't, it won't.
Because, Mizzou....
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