1. Let's get this out of the way at the start. There's really only one question that matters to those who aren't making a living off the quality of the team's performance, or the players themselves.
Did you win?
That is especially the case in conference road games.
The answer today: Yes. Easily.
Success.
2. But, while I don't qualify for the above categories, I like to talk about things anyway. Let's start with Arkansas. Pretty talented team. Muss is doing what Muss does. Grab some quality high school players, be involved in EVERY transfer recruitment and put it together over the early months of the season against a pedestrian non-con. Rinse, repeat. Arkansas assuredly does have talent, though missing Smith (yeah, I guess they grabbed one too) definitely hurt their flow today. I think they're a 9-12 win team in league play this year. But they got a rude awakening today. Metrics were higher on them than us, and to some extent I understood that. But blowing the doors off of patsies has its limits. Consider the adjusted efficiency defense ranks they'd faced thus far:
Abilene Christian: 65
N. Texas: 88
Auburn: 97
UTA: 188
Southern: 263
UCA: 274
Oral Roberts: 293
Lipscomb: 294
Miss Valley: 357 (read: Last)
After today's superlative effort, Mizzou checks in at 19. There's virtue to getting your legs under you, building cohesion, grabbing wins etc. Then there's also the argument of getting your team accustomed to tough competition and getting them battle tested. Muss and Cuonzo appear to diverge on that opinion. Cuonzo's method paid off on this day.
3. Arkansas checked in at 30th in pomeroy (again, probably a little lofty) and dropped to 38. This year is different. No crowds, home court is lessened etc. But winning on the road is still winning on the road. When's the last time Mizzou beat a team in that territory in a true road game?
Probably the last time we won in Fayetteville in 2014 when the hawgs checked in at 40th.
But in the thirties or better? You have to go back to the thirty win 2012 team.
Impressive result.
The numbers back that up. Torvik rated this as a 98 game score. Wednesday against UT was 19. Nineteen! Bradley was 68, Liberty 76. The others have been 95+ (5 of 8 games). That's a good ratio after having only 7 a year ago.
The WAB ("wet a$$ bubble") responded well too. After a -0.31 on tuesday, we added +0.68 today, at this point, the highest single game addition of the season (numbers will shift as teams win/lose). Mizzou now ranks 2nd nationally in WAB behind Gonzaga, in this resume measuring figure. Impressive stuff.
Needless to say, today was a big, BIG result.
4. But Mizzoucobra, the Tigers looked like dookie at times today, why do the numbers look good?
A. You're correct in part, and that will be addressed below.
B. Mizzou's team defense held Arkansas to a 31.7 eFG%. What happened in the Bradley game to our shooting? Yeah, that basically got put on the hawgs shoulders today. That's the lowest defensive eFG% we allowed since two such games in 2019 (aTm and UGA, neither of which were any good on offense). Incredible, incredible stuff on the defensive end today. Quick rotations, seamless switches when appropriate, cutting off driving lanes, strong rim defense. There were 80!!! possessions played today, resulting in a defensive .85 points allowed per possession. That was the neighborhood our offense was in Wednesday.
5. So the bad. Turnovers. The Mizzou Tigers have become an addict of sorts. They know TO's are bad, they understand you don't want them...but when you get weak and get that taste, they just...keep...coming. There's no positives to take from turning the ball over 21 times. It does mean a little less when you play 80 possessions vs. 70 (roughly a 3% drop in TO rate from Tennessee to Arkansas). But it's gotta get fixed. It's frustrating because there are games where the numbers are actually really good...then bam, drunk in a gutter. Consider our game by game TO rate (anything below 18% is quality):
Arkansas: 26.8%
Tennessee: 29.9%
Bradley: 11.8%
Illinois: 23.7%
Liberty: 22.5%
Wichita: 16.3%
Oregon: 9.8%
ORU: 22.8%
3 good results. 3 pretty bad results. 2 disastrous results. If it weren't saturday at home with the children, I'd go on more about this. But...we won, moving on...
6. Outside of our turnover rate, the offense was solid. Not great, but solid. It was buoyed by two things. 1. High quality shots at the rim resulting in 16-24; and part in parcel with that, 2. an ABSURD 76.5% fta/fga, which is roughly double normal range. This didn't benefit us greatly as Arkansas was 23-34 themselves and Mizzou missed more than they should. But still. This is how you can beat good teams when outside shots aren't falling. And unlike jump shots, trips to the line affect the personnel.
7. Numbers
2PT
Mizzou: 19-32 (59.4%)
Arkansas: 12-43 (27.9%; lol)
3 PT
Mizzou: 5-19 (26.3%)
Arkansas: 7-28 (25.0%)
FT
Mizzou: 28-39 (71.8%)
Arkansas: 23-34 (67.6%)
Oreb%
Mizzou: 33.3%
Arkansas: 28.1%
Turnover Rate
Mizzou: 26.4%
Arkansas: 11.3%
So, this gives you a template of how you can win a boatload of games shooting 26% from 3, with improvements in other areas. Get back in the 75-80% FT range (4 points), turn the ball over 7 less times (6-7 more points). Do those two things and we're talking about a 25 point beatdown.
8. MVP: Tilmon. Easy. 25 points, 11 boards, 1 TO and 3 PF. Did it on 9-13 from the floor and 7-10 at the line. Arguably the best performance he's turned in while wearing Mizzou threads. Not just that he put up those numbers, but the WAY he did it. Lobs for dunks. O-rebound putbacks. Transition layups. Rarely a traditional post up. THAT is how you get him involved. Pinson also deserves mention for manning the point for extended periods with Dru out. 23 points (12-15 at the line) 4 assists and only 2 TO. On another night, that's the likely candidate.
Triple double warning: Mark almost got it. 11 points, 9 boards and...8 turnovers. Credit to him for canning a couple big threes in the 2nd half. But he and Dru combined for 14 turnovers. They're better than that and they know it. But their key 3's did help move them back in the right direction.
9. A 1-1 week with the opponents we drew is solid. Real solid. You obviously would've liked to not witness the shitfest that was wednesday, but it happened. Losses happen. Losses where you lose composure happen, though you want to avoid them. Not letting that loss snowball into 2, 3, 4 etc. losses is significant. Big effort for the good guys today to get things back on track.
10. Up Next: Mississippi State. Haven't seen much of them this year save for a few minutes Wednesday waiting on our game to start. They're not at the level they had been. But I'm convinced that if Gonzaga threw on some Mizzou uni's and headed to Starkville, I'd still be shitting bricks. Something about that town/matchup has led to bad results recently (even in Football!!!)
Closing: In an effort to get you all to know the greatness that was my old coach, I'm going to keep sharing quotables...
"Ain't no self respecting man losing a game with THAT (pointing to logo) on their floor."
Did you win?
That is especially the case in conference road games.
The answer today: Yes. Easily.
Success.
2. But, while I don't qualify for the above categories, I like to talk about things anyway. Let's start with Arkansas. Pretty talented team. Muss is doing what Muss does. Grab some quality high school players, be involved in EVERY transfer recruitment and put it together over the early months of the season against a pedestrian non-con. Rinse, repeat. Arkansas assuredly does have talent, though missing Smith (yeah, I guess they grabbed one too) definitely hurt their flow today. I think they're a 9-12 win team in league play this year. But they got a rude awakening today. Metrics were higher on them than us, and to some extent I understood that. But blowing the doors off of patsies has its limits. Consider the adjusted efficiency defense ranks they'd faced thus far:
Abilene Christian: 65
N. Texas: 88
Auburn: 97
UTA: 188
Southern: 263
UCA: 274
Oral Roberts: 293
Lipscomb: 294
Miss Valley: 357 (read: Last)
After today's superlative effort, Mizzou checks in at 19. There's virtue to getting your legs under you, building cohesion, grabbing wins etc. Then there's also the argument of getting your team accustomed to tough competition and getting them battle tested. Muss and Cuonzo appear to diverge on that opinion. Cuonzo's method paid off on this day.
3. Arkansas checked in at 30th in pomeroy (again, probably a little lofty) and dropped to 38. This year is different. No crowds, home court is lessened etc. But winning on the road is still winning on the road. When's the last time Mizzou beat a team in that territory in a true road game?
Probably the last time we won in Fayetteville in 2014 when the hawgs checked in at 40th.
But in the thirties or better? You have to go back to the thirty win 2012 team.
Impressive result.
The numbers back that up. Torvik rated this as a 98 game score. Wednesday against UT was 19. Nineteen! Bradley was 68, Liberty 76. The others have been 95+ (5 of 8 games). That's a good ratio after having only 7 a year ago.
The WAB ("wet a$$ bubble") responded well too. After a -0.31 on tuesday, we added +0.68 today, at this point, the highest single game addition of the season (numbers will shift as teams win/lose). Mizzou now ranks 2nd nationally in WAB behind Gonzaga, in this resume measuring figure. Impressive stuff.
Needless to say, today was a big, BIG result.
4. But Mizzoucobra, the Tigers looked like dookie at times today, why do the numbers look good?
A. You're correct in part, and that will be addressed below.
B. Mizzou's team defense held Arkansas to a 31.7 eFG%. What happened in the Bradley game to our shooting? Yeah, that basically got put on the hawgs shoulders today. That's the lowest defensive eFG% we allowed since two such games in 2019 (aTm and UGA, neither of which were any good on offense). Incredible, incredible stuff on the defensive end today. Quick rotations, seamless switches when appropriate, cutting off driving lanes, strong rim defense. There were 80!!! possessions played today, resulting in a defensive .85 points allowed per possession. That was the neighborhood our offense was in Wednesday.
5. So the bad. Turnovers. The Mizzou Tigers have become an addict of sorts. They know TO's are bad, they understand you don't want them...but when you get weak and get that taste, they just...keep...coming. There's no positives to take from turning the ball over 21 times. It does mean a little less when you play 80 possessions vs. 70 (roughly a 3% drop in TO rate from Tennessee to Arkansas). But it's gotta get fixed. It's frustrating because there are games where the numbers are actually really good...then bam, drunk in a gutter. Consider our game by game TO rate (anything below 18% is quality):
Arkansas: 26.8%
Tennessee: 29.9%
Bradley: 11.8%
Illinois: 23.7%
Liberty: 22.5%
Wichita: 16.3%
Oregon: 9.8%
ORU: 22.8%
3 good results. 3 pretty bad results. 2 disastrous results. If it weren't saturday at home with the children, I'd go on more about this. But...we won, moving on...
6. Outside of our turnover rate, the offense was solid. Not great, but solid. It was buoyed by two things. 1. High quality shots at the rim resulting in 16-24; and part in parcel with that, 2. an ABSURD 76.5% fta/fga, which is roughly double normal range. This didn't benefit us greatly as Arkansas was 23-34 themselves and Mizzou missed more than they should. But still. This is how you can beat good teams when outside shots aren't falling. And unlike jump shots, trips to the line affect the personnel.
7. Numbers
2PT
Mizzou: 19-32 (59.4%)
Arkansas: 12-43 (27.9%; lol)
3 PT
Mizzou: 5-19 (26.3%)
Arkansas: 7-28 (25.0%)
FT
Mizzou: 28-39 (71.8%)
Arkansas: 23-34 (67.6%)
Oreb%
Mizzou: 33.3%
Arkansas: 28.1%
Turnover Rate
Mizzou: 26.4%
Arkansas: 11.3%
So, this gives you a template of how you can win a boatload of games shooting 26% from 3, with improvements in other areas. Get back in the 75-80% FT range (4 points), turn the ball over 7 less times (6-7 more points). Do those two things and we're talking about a 25 point beatdown.
8. MVP: Tilmon. Easy. 25 points, 11 boards, 1 TO and 3 PF. Did it on 9-13 from the floor and 7-10 at the line. Arguably the best performance he's turned in while wearing Mizzou threads. Not just that he put up those numbers, but the WAY he did it. Lobs for dunks. O-rebound putbacks. Transition layups. Rarely a traditional post up. THAT is how you get him involved. Pinson also deserves mention for manning the point for extended periods with Dru out. 23 points (12-15 at the line) 4 assists and only 2 TO. On another night, that's the likely candidate.
Triple double warning: Mark almost got it. 11 points, 9 boards and...8 turnovers. Credit to him for canning a couple big threes in the 2nd half. But he and Dru combined for 14 turnovers. They're better than that and they know it. But their key 3's did help move them back in the right direction.
9. A 1-1 week with the opponents we drew is solid. Real solid. You obviously would've liked to not witness the shitfest that was wednesday, but it happened. Losses happen. Losses where you lose composure happen, though you want to avoid them. Not letting that loss snowball into 2, 3, 4 etc. losses is significant. Big effort for the good guys today to get things back on track.
10. Up Next: Mississippi State. Haven't seen much of them this year save for a few minutes Wednesday waiting on our game to start. They're not at the level they had been. But I'm convinced that if Gonzaga threw on some Mizzou uni's and headed to Starkville, I'd still be shitting bricks. Something about that town/matchup has led to bad results recently (even in Football!!!)
Closing: In an effort to get you all to know the greatness that was my old coach, I'm going to keep sharing quotables...
"Ain't no self respecting man losing a game with THAT (pointing to logo) on their floor."
