This is pretty much a nightmare of a game to properly analyze, but this is why @GabeD pays me the big bucks.
1. Hey, we won!
2. There is no objective criteria that will show Mizzou played a good game today. Most will point to the opposite conclusion. Some will say it was...ok. As I've preached for years, knowing "how good" of a team you have is important. The numbers prove that up. But there's also the component of: does the team win games? There's really no metric bigger than that. Know and understand the rest, it's vital. But don't lose sight of the big picture. And to further that point, I dug up some shooting numbers on the last Conference winners we had, the undefeated 93-94 group. That senior-laden team ranked somewhere between 3rd and 5th in a lot of important categories (Out of 8 Big 12 teams), including most importantly eFG% offense and defense. But you know what? They won games and they won a bunch of close games. They got a documentary made about them. This team is not going to accomplish what that team did. But they're also outpacing their numbers. And that's cool. Getting more out of the team than you might expect numerically is a fun thing for fans.
3. TCU. I thought to myself pre-game, I have NO idea what team is going to show up today. The "numbers" don't suggest they're a good team. There's nothing about their season that gave me a belief that they're good. They did have a really nice win over OSU in Stillwater which has aged nicely. But they lost 4 in a row to good teams, with the only semi-competitive game in Lawrence thursday that they lost by 8 (and I couldn't watch, since it was on ESPN+, lulz). An extended covid pause. Nearly back to back road games. Not a clue. They didn't come out hot, but they got hot (see below). Credit to them for playing what almost assuredly was their best offensive game of the year. It shouldn't have been close. It very nearly wasn't, in the wrong direction.
4. Mizzou's offense was REALLY good today. TCU, not an offensive juggernaut, but the numbers are not deniable:
24-38 (63.1%) from 2
11-23 (47.8% from 3
21-35 from the line (ok, the fly in the ointment)
19 assists
That's an eFG% of 66.4% and (if my numbers are correct) a 1.34 points per possession mark. Our second best PPP was 1.22 against Oral Roberts.
I mean, those guys were humming on that end. The turnovers crept up and some were REALLY costly between the 8-4 minute marks of the second half.
But if you told me we'd put up THESE numbers today, I'd guess we win by 25-30.
5. But we didn't. And the answer is clear as to why. In what has become a very rare occasion under the Martin administration, Mizzou's defense was incomprehensibly bad. It's true, TCU started nutting some tough jumpers at points, but they got in a rhythm because MOST of their shots were at the rim or unguarded (or both). I have a theory that with the game was whistled Tuesday, some guys were playing not to create contact/foul. But you cannot play defense that way. You cannot play Martin's defense that way. This is probably the aspect of any individual game I've been most disappointed in this season. Just an absolute no show on that end for 30+ minutes. On the dribble drive. On all 3 levels. And on the defensive glass. I do not imagine we'll see a performance this bad the rest of the way (certainly hope not). If there's one facet I'm comforted in knowing that Martin will hammer on during a break, that will be it. And they deserve to be hammered. TCU's numbers:
32-55 (58.2%) from 2
7-16 (43.8%) from 3
13-17 from the line (see my theory about lack of physicality on defense; this supports it)
10 Oreb allowed
8 turnovers created
An eFG% of 59.86% and PPP allowed of 1.27. That is the worst mark since the SEC tournament when a final four Auburn team narrowly bested it.
I felt like I was shipped into Baton Rouge. High powered offense, non-existent D and an improbable late rally to beat a team they should've handled.
6. The nut-cutting time of this one started at 3:20 remaining in the game with Mizzou down 82-71. Kobe had just secured a defensive rebound. Here is the sequence from that point on:
Miz: Tilmon shooting foul 2-2
TCU: Missed 3, Tilmon RB
Miz: Dru foul 1-2; kobe oreb; X three + 1
TCU: Tigers yield oreb, foul putback 2-2
Miz: Mark made 3
TCU: TCU made 3
Miz: Til made jumper
TCU: TCU missed 3
Miz: X made 3
TCU: 2-2 at line
Miz: Dru missed 3, tilmon missed putback, kobe oreb, Pinson made 3
TCU: missed heave
Mizzou made an 18-7 run on 6 possessions. Read that again. They scored 18 points in 6 trips. We scored 21 points in a half against Bradley. Incredible. X was huge contributing 10 of those points. But I want you to look at arguably the two biggest shots (both by X), how did those happen? Kobe O-Reb. Missed two big ft's (that didn't end up mattering thanks to another oreb), but any discussion of the comeback can't be discussed without him as well.
7. MVP. Another tough choice. Tilmon was huge early and consistent throughout. X was massive late, and a little less consistent. Why don't we bundle them and look at their combined numbers:
70 minutes played
69 points scored
12 boards
5 assists
3 blocks
5 TO
3 fouls
15-22 from 2
8-13 from 3
15-24 at the line
The honorable mention goes to Kobe Brown. 7 points, 13 boards (5 offensive), 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 foul, 1 turnover, 2-3 shooting. If you get that Kobe the remainder of the years, the ceiling rises.
Not a great game for him, but also worth mentioning Mark canning a big 3 despite struggles all game long.
8. What's next? Unknown. It may be Alabama next Saturday. I would like to see the program hustle and grab a midweek game at home if the SEC isn't going to do it for us with a league game. Don't care who. Even a bad team would be fine. Get the guys playing.
9. Not going to criticize anyone for tuning out early. It's understandable. Also not going to criticize anyone for thinking we didn't play well. We didn't. But my two sentence soapbox...today was objectively an amazing game to watch featuring a completely improbable comeback with for the home team. Winning games by 40 is great. I'm also tuning in for the entertainment purpose. Today filled that cup over the rim.
1. Hey, we won!
2. There is no objective criteria that will show Mizzou played a good game today. Most will point to the opposite conclusion. Some will say it was...ok. As I've preached for years, knowing "how good" of a team you have is important. The numbers prove that up. But there's also the component of: does the team win games? There's really no metric bigger than that. Know and understand the rest, it's vital. But don't lose sight of the big picture. And to further that point, I dug up some shooting numbers on the last Conference winners we had, the undefeated 93-94 group. That senior-laden team ranked somewhere between 3rd and 5th in a lot of important categories (Out of 8 Big 12 teams), including most importantly eFG% offense and defense. But you know what? They won games and they won a bunch of close games. They got a documentary made about them. This team is not going to accomplish what that team did. But they're also outpacing their numbers. And that's cool. Getting more out of the team than you might expect numerically is a fun thing for fans.
3. TCU. I thought to myself pre-game, I have NO idea what team is going to show up today. The "numbers" don't suggest they're a good team. There's nothing about their season that gave me a belief that they're good. They did have a really nice win over OSU in Stillwater which has aged nicely. But they lost 4 in a row to good teams, with the only semi-competitive game in Lawrence thursday that they lost by 8 (and I couldn't watch, since it was on ESPN+, lulz). An extended covid pause. Nearly back to back road games. Not a clue. They didn't come out hot, but they got hot (see below). Credit to them for playing what almost assuredly was their best offensive game of the year. It shouldn't have been close. It very nearly wasn't, in the wrong direction.
4. Mizzou's offense was REALLY good today. TCU, not an offensive juggernaut, but the numbers are not deniable:
24-38 (63.1%) from 2
11-23 (47.8% from 3
21-35 from the line (ok, the fly in the ointment)
19 assists
That's an eFG% of 66.4% and (if my numbers are correct) a 1.34 points per possession mark. Our second best PPP was 1.22 against Oral Roberts.
I mean, those guys were humming on that end. The turnovers crept up and some were REALLY costly between the 8-4 minute marks of the second half.
But if you told me we'd put up THESE numbers today, I'd guess we win by 25-30.
5. But we didn't. And the answer is clear as to why. In what has become a very rare occasion under the Martin administration, Mizzou's defense was incomprehensibly bad. It's true, TCU started nutting some tough jumpers at points, but they got in a rhythm because MOST of their shots were at the rim or unguarded (or both). I have a theory that with the game was whistled Tuesday, some guys were playing not to create contact/foul. But you cannot play defense that way. You cannot play Martin's defense that way. This is probably the aspect of any individual game I've been most disappointed in this season. Just an absolute no show on that end for 30+ minutes. On the dribble drive. On all 3 levels. And on the defensive glass. I do not imagine we'll see a performance this bad the rest of the way (certainly hope not). If there's one facet I'm comforted in knowing that Martin will hammer on during a break, that will be it. And they deserve to be hammered. TCU's numbers:
32-55 (58.2%) from 2
7-16 (43.8%) from 3
13-17 from the line (see my theory about lack of physicality on defense; this supports it)
10 Oreb allowed
8 turnovers created
An eFG% of 59.86% and PPP allowed of 1.27. That is the worst mark since the SEC tournament when a final four Auburn team narrowly bested it.
I felt like I was shipped into Baton Rouge. High powered offense, non-existent D and an improbable late rally to beat a team they should've handled.
6. The nut-cutting time of this one started at 3:20 remaining in the game with Mizzou down 82-71. Kobe had just secured a defensive rebound. Here is the sequence from that point on:
Miz: Tilmon shooting foul 2-2
TCU: Missed 3, Tilmon RB
Miz: Dru foul 1-2; kobe oreb; X three + 1
TCU: Tigers yield oreb, foul putback 2-2
Miz: Mark made 3
TCU: TCU made 3
Miz: Til made jumper
TCU: TCU missed 3
Miz: X made 3
TCU: 2-2 at line
Miz: Dru missed 3, tilmon missed putback, kobe oreb, Pinson made 3
TCU: missed heave
Mizzou made an 18-7 run on 6 possessions. Read that again. They scored 18 points in 6 trips. We scored 21 points in a half against Bradley. Incredible. X was huge contributing 10 of those points. But I want you to look at arguably the two biggest shots (both by X), how did those happen? Kobe O-Reb. Missed two big ft's (that didn't end up mattering thanks to another oreb), but any discussion of the comeback can't be discussed without him as well.
7. MVP. Another tough choice. Tilmon was huge early and consistent throughout. X was massive late, and a little less consistent. Why don't we bundle them and look at their combined numbers:
70 minutes played
69 points scored
12 boards
5 assists
3 blocks
5 TO
3 fouls
15-22 from 2
8-13 from 3
15-24 at the line
The honorable mention goes to Kobe Brown. 7 points, 13 boards (5 offensive), 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 foul, 1 turnover, 2-3 shooting. If you get that Kobe the remainder of the years, the ceiling rises.
Not a great game for him, but also worth mentioning Mark canning a big 3 despite struggles all game long.
8. What's next? Unknown. It may be Alabama next Saturday. I would like to see the program hustle and grab a midweek game at home if the SEC isn't going to do it for us with a league game. Don't care who. Even a bad team would be fine. Get the guys playing.
9. Not going to criticize anyone for tuning out early. It's understandable. Also not going to criticize anyone for thinking we didn't play well. We didn't. But my two sentence soapbox...today was objectively an amazing game to watch featuring a completely improbable comeback with for the home team. Winning games by 40 is great. I'm also tuning in for the entertainment purpose. Today filled that cup over the rim.
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