Warning: Long post. Non-warning: I don’t care. Don’t read it if you don’t want to.
There’s been lots of discussion here about whether we’re talented enough to compete with decent teams (let alone really good ones like Auburn) and whether it’s a rebuild (or “turnaround) per BO’s rant last week. On Offense, I generally think we do have enough talent to compete. It’s not great, and depth is an issue on OL & RB in particular. But if fully healthy, we can put 11 plausible SEC athletes on the field. (Execution is, ahem, another matter, but a topic for another day or thread.)
On Defense, that’s not the case (I think most would agree). The biggest issue by far is a talent deficit -quantity & quality - among upperclassmen (the 3rd, 4th & 5th year guys). I took a closer look at that to try to quantify and qualify the problem rather than just generalizing. Note: my goal here isn’t to assign blame, or get into any amorphous leadership or culture issues (I have no idea). Rather it’s just to look at the reality of the remaining “talent” they have to work with from the recruiting classes that should form the core of the defense. Overall, that reality ain’t pretty. Here are the facts plus a few observations:
THE BASICS
- There were 28 total defensive guys from the 2013-2015 recruiting classes who 1) actually made it to Mizzou and 2) could still be eligible (i.e. includes six 2013 defensive guys who redshirted their freshman year, except Harris who left early for “good” reasons. I also included Greg Taylor from ’14, since he did make it (briefly) 2 years later).
- 9 of those 28 guys are not currently on the team (8 permanently)
- 11 of the 19 remaining guys play meaningful snaps on defense
- The other 8 are nonfactors on defense for now (Ross, Stribliing, Winters, G. Jones, Hines, Warren, Agbasimere, T. Jacobs) - some contribute on special teams; others not at all
DETAILS & ANALYSIS
- Attrition alone hasn’t really killed them in terms of quantity. 8 out of 28 (or 8.5 w/ Logan) may be a bit high, but doesn’t seem too far out of the norm.
- Attrition HAS killed the in terms of quality (on the field, if not off) and quantity on the D-line. (e.g. if it wasn’t for those damned felonies, etc. our starting DEs could theoretically be Loud & Brady, with Frazier & Howard as backups … and Harold as the subject of one of those feel good videos when they announce he's getting a scholarship for his final year & the team mobs him!)
- The combination of attrition AND 8 “nonfactors” on defense really hurts depth/quantity. They’re getting no contribution on D from more than 60% (17 of 28) of the potentially-eligible defensive recruits from 2013-15. (BTW, that’s also a big difference with the Offense, where there’s also been a lot of attrition, but virtually no “dead weight” among the upperclassmen that remain).
- The 11 remaining 3rd/4th/5th year recruits (non-walkons) represent only 44% of the 25 guys who’ve taken 20+ snaps on Defense. (In terms of total snaps played it’s closer to 50%, but that doesn’t really change the point). Either way I’d guess that % is REALLY low for a P5 defense – or at least one that’s not, dare I say, “rebuilding” (or Bama or OSU, who reload with 5*s every year & sends ½ their D to the NFL after 3 years). I don’t have data for other teams, so yes that's a total guess, but feels pretty safe.
- The numbers are REALLY bad at 3 key positions (DT, DE, CB) representing more than ½ the defense. From the 2013-15 recruiting classes combined, these are the guys who’ve played a single snap at those spots this year: 1 DT (TBJ), 1 DE (Frazier) and 1 CB (Cheadle). Ouch!
Then there’s QUALITY (a bit more subjective, but) …
- Among the 6 starters perhaps 3-4 guys should be starters on a middle-of-the-road SEC team (if we’re being generous)
- Among the 5 backups perhaps 2-3 should be backups who play meaningful snaps on a middle-of-the-road SEC team (if we’re being generous).
- The 2014 class was particularly brutal. Of the 11 defensive recruits who are (or should be) 4th year seniors or RS juniors, the only contributors on D are: 2 average-at-best “starting” DBs (Wilson, Cheadle) and 1 backup LB (Lee)
- By comparison, the 2013 class did have impact defensive talent if not high numbers (that ever made it to MU) -- Harris obviously, plus Penton, Augusta. There’s just not a ton left among the RS Seniors (Sherrils, Beisel, Burkett … and maybe Logan). So the “good” news is that means we won’t be losing a ton on D next year for whoever’s coaching them (granted Frazier and perhaps TBJ will also be gone from the ’15 class)
- What about the JUCO/transfer/walk-on Upperclassmen? There are a bunch of these guys on the 2 deep at least who are technically upperclassmen. Some look promising, some less so to date. And one is playing for Oregon – which is the thing about Juco’s & other transfers: they’re a crapshoot. They can fill some gaps & occasionally turn out great (i.e. Golden) but if you’re trying to bring in 4 JUCO DL in one year that indicates a big problem with the existing talent. And if you’re banking on them all playing substantial roles in year 1, that’s a bigger problem. (i.e. even Golden barely played on D in year 1).
COMPARISONS
To compare, I looked quickly at 3 other SEC teams, including 2 somewhat comparable programs that have been better on D this year. (not saying these 3 are fully representative, but I didn’t cherry pick)
UGA: All of their starters on D are upperclassmen (6 seniors, 5 juniors & one RS Soph - they include nickel DB on depth chart, hence 12 ). And that’s leaving aside that almost all of them are high 4*s (w/ one 5* and a couple 3s). I mean, yes, Kirby Smart is a genius – but having all talented 3rd/4th/5th year guys starting on D also helps.
Vandy: They actually start a true Soph at CB! But the other 10 defensive starters are 7 seniors and 3 juniors. And 6 of their 11 backups are at least 3rd year guys
Kentucky: Our opponent this week also starts one true Soph at DE. The rest of their starting Defense are upperclassmen (mostly Jrs & Srs with a couple RS Sophs), as are 17 or the 23 guys they list on their Def depth chart (One backup is a recent JUCO so we’ll call it 16 of 23).
The fact is there’s a massive disparity in experienced talent. And maybe a team like Kentucky has done a better job coaching up those upperclassmen … but remember that 2 of the 4 TDs they gave up to Florida (including the game winner in the final minute) were on plays where they didn’t cover a WR … literally
CONCLUSIONS
- Is it a rebuild or “turnaround” on defense? Sure as hell looks like it. Feel free to disagree, but the numbers are pretty damning. Hard to imagine you’re going to have a decent P5 defense if your 3rd/4th/5th year recruits provide maybe 4 starter worthy guys (again if we’re being generous).
This putrid stat may encapsulate it: In 3 games vs. FBS teams we have 2 “pass defended” (INTs & Passes Broken Up combined). How bad is that? Our .67 “passes defended” per game are half the number of the 2nd worst team in FBS. The average is 4.5 per game. Again, we have 2 in 3 games! Maybe coaching is a factor, but it seems a LOT more like a talent issue. BTW, last year we were 14th nationally with 5.67 per game (between Clemson & Ohio St)
So BO doesn’t suck as a HC? Nope, not saying that. I don't know. As Gabe likes to say their issues are some mix of talent, coaching, culture & more. I’m just trying to quantify the talent part of that mix on Defense … and it’s big.
There’s been lots of discussion here about whether we’re talented enough to compete with decent teams (let alone really good ones like Auburn) and whether it’s a rebuild (or “turnaround) per BO’s rant last week. On Offense, I generally think we do have enough talent to compete. It’s not great, and depth is an issue on OL & RB in particular. But if fully healthy, we can put 11 plausible SEC athletes on the field. (Execution is, ahem, another matter, but a topic for another day or thread.)
On Defense, that’s not the case (I think most would agree). The biggest issue by far is a talent deficit -quantity & quality - among upperclassmen (the 3rd, 4th & 5th year guys). I took a closer look at that to try to quantify and qualify the problem rather than just generalizing. Note: my goal here isn’t to assign blame, or get into any amorphous leadership or culture issues (I have no idea). Rather it’s just to look at the reality of the remaining “talent” they have to work with from the recruiting classes that should form the core of the defense. Overall, that reality ain’t pretty. Here are the facts plus a few observations:
THE BASICS
- There were 28 total defensive guys from the 2013-2015 recruiting classes who 1) actually made it to Mizzou and 2) could still be eligible (i.e. includes six 2013 defensive guys who redshirted their freshman year, except Harris who left early for “good” reasons. I also included Greg Taylor from ’14, since he did make it (briefly) 2 years later).
- 9 of those 28 guys are not currently on the team (8 permanently)
· 4 transferred (S. Williams, R. McWilliams, Josh Moore, Rupert) – hurt depth, no huge losses
· 4 were dismissed (Loud, Brady, Taylor, Howard) – some big losses
· 1 is suspended by NCAA (Logan) - we’ll see
· 4 were dismissed (Loud, Brady, Taylor, Howard) – some big losses
· 1 is suspended by NCAA (Logan) - we’ll see
- 11 of the 19 remaining guys play meaningful snaps on defense
· 6 starters (Beckner, Frazier, Hall, Sherrils, Wilson, Cheadle)
· 5 backups (Lee, Beisel, Burkett, Perkins, Hilton)
· 5 backups (Lee, Beisel, Burkett, Perkins, Hilton)
- The other 8 are nonfactors on defense for now (Ross, Stribliing, Winters, G. Jones, Hines, Warren, Agbasimere, T. Jacobs) - some contribute on special teams; others not at all
DETAILS & ANALYSIS
- Attrition alone hasn’t really killed them in terms of quantity. 8 out of 28 (or 8.5 w/ Logan) may be a bit high, but doesn’t seem too far out of the norm.
- Attrition HAS killed the in terms of quality (on the field, if not off) and quantity on the D-line. (e.g. if it wasn’t for those damned felonies, etc. our starting DEs could theoretically be Loud & Brady, with Frazier & Howard as backups … and Harold as the subject of one of those feel good videos when they announce he's getting a scholarship for his final year & the team mobs him!)
- The combination of attrition AND 8 “nonfactors” on defense really hurts depth/quantity. They’re getting no contribution on D from more than 60% (17 of 28) of the potentially-eligible defensive recruits from 2013-15. (BTW, that’s also a big difference with the Offense, where there’s also been a lot of attrition, but virtually no “dead weight” among the upperclassmen that remain).
- The 11 remaining 3rd/4th/5th year recruits (non-walkons) represent only 44% of the 25 guys who’ve taken 20+ snaps on Defense. (In terms of total snaps played it’s closer to 50%, but that doesn’t really change the point). Either way I’d guess that % is REALLY low for a P5 defense – or at least one that’s not, dare I say, “rebuilding” (or Bama or OSU, who reload with 5*s every year & sends ½ their D to the NFL after 3 years). I don’t have data for other teams, so yes that's a total guess, but feels pretty safe.
- The numbers are REALLY bad at 3 key positions (DT, DE, CB) representing more than ½ the defense. From the 2013-15 recruiting classes combined, these are the guys who’ve played a single snap at those spots this year: 1 DT (TBJ), 1 DE (Frazier) and 1 CB (Cheadle). Ouch!
Then there’s QUALITY (a bit more subjective, but) …
- Among the 6 starters perhaps 3-4 guys should be starters on a middle-of-the-road SEC team (if we’re being generous)
· TBJ – yes, some understandable ACL-itis, but still our most impactful guy on D
· Frazier – flashes last year suggest he can have an impact at least situationally (i.e. playing 50% of snaps vs 80% this year – and perhaps that's where lack of quantity hurts quality)
· Hall– not a difference maker yet, but showed signs vs Auburn (IMO, best game from MU LB since Kentrell)
· Sherrils/Wilson – feel like it wouldn’t kill you if you were starting 1 of them (but not both) & that 1 was the 10th or 11th best guy on D
· Cheadle– seems steady, doesn’t miss assignments; but limited athletically & especially by size (see 1st play vs Auburn)
· Frazier – flashes last year suggest he can have an impact at least situationally (i.e. playing 50% of snaps vs 80% this year – and perhaps that's where lack of quantity hurts quality)
· Hall– not a difference maker yet, but showed signs vs Auburn (IMO, best game from MU LB since Kentrell)
· Sherrils/Wilson – feel like it wouldn’t kill you if you were starting 1 of them (but not both) & that 1 was the 10th or 11th best guy on D
· Cheadle– seems steady, doesn’t miss assignments; but limited athletically & especially by size (see 1st play vs Auburn)
- Among the 5 backups perhaps 2-3 should be backups who play meaningful snaps on a middle-of-the-road SEC team (if we’re being generous).
· The LBs – Lee seems like a serviceable backup LB; Beisel/Burkett: god bless ‘em, but Vince Lombardi isn’t going to make them fast or instinctive enough (BTW, I think Beisel CAN be good against very north/south, power running, i-formation type offenses wo/ a lot of deception (i.e. Arkansas last year), unfortunately there aren’t many of those.
· The DBs – Perkins: good contributor & most (or only) consistent DB tackler when healthy; Hilton: the athleticism is enticing, but the football part so far … yikes!
· The DBs – Perkins: good contributor & most (or only) consistent DB tackler when healthy; Hilton: the athleticism is enticing, but the football part so far … yikes!
- The 2014 class was particularly brutal. Of the 11 defensive recruits who are (or should be) 4th year seniors or RS juniors, the only contributors on D are: 2 average-at-best “starting” DBs (Wilson, Cheadle) and 1 backup LB (Lee)
- By comparison, the 2013 class did have impact defensive talent if not high numbers (that ever made it to MU) -- Harris obviously, plus Penton, Augusta. There’s just not a ton left among the RS Seniors (Sherrils, Beisel, Burkett … and maybe Logan). So the “good” news is that means we won’t be losing a ton on D next year for whoever’s coaching them (granted Frazier and perhaps TBJ will also be gone from the ’15 class)
- What about the JUCO/transfer/walk-on Upperclassmen? There are a bunch of these guys on the 2 deep at least who are technically upperclassmen. Some look promising, some less so to date. And one is playing for Oregon – which is the thing about Juco’s & other transfers: they’re a crapshoot. They can fill some gaps & occasionally turn out great (i.e. Golden) but if you’re trying to bring in 4 JUCO DL in one year that indicates a big problem with the existing talent. And if you’re banking on them all playing substantial roles in year 1, that’s a bigger problem. (i.e. even Golden barely played on D in year 1).
COMPARISONS
To compare, I looked quickly at 3 other SEC teams, including 2 somewhat comparable programs that have been better on D this year. (not saying these 3 are fully representative, but I didn’t cherry pick)
UGA: All of their starters on D are upperclassmen (6 seniors, 5 juniors & one RS Soph - they include nickel DB on depth chart, hence 12 ). And that’s leaving aside that almost all of them are high 4*s (w/ one 5* and a couple 3s). I mean, yes, Kirby Smart is a genius – but having all talented 3rd/4th/5th year guys starting on D also helps.
Vandy: They actually start a true Soph at CB! But the other 10 defensive starters are 7 seniors and 3 juniors. And 6 of their 11 backups are at least 3rd year guys
Kentucky: Our opponent this week also starts one true Soph at DE. The rest of their starting Defense are upperclassmen (mostly Jrs & Srs with a couple RS Sophs), as are 17 or the 23 guys they list on their Def depth chart (One backup is a recent JUCO so we’ll call it 16 of 23).
The fact is there’s a massive disparity in experienced talent. And maybe a team like Kentucky has done a better job coaching up those upperclassmen … but remember that 2 of the 4 TDs they gave up to Florida (including the game winner in the final minute) were on plays where they didn’t cover a WR … literally
CONCLUSIONS
- Is it a rebuild or “turnaround” on defense? Sure as hell looks like it. Feel free to disagree, but the numbers are pretty damning. Hard to imagine you’re going to have a decent P5 defense if your 3rd/4th/5th year recruits provide maybe 4 starter worthy guys (again if we’re being generous).
This putrid stat may encapsulate it: In 3 games vs. FBS teams we have 2 “pass defended” (INTs & Passes Broken Up combined). How bad is that? Our .67 “passes defended” per game are half the number of the 2nd worst team in FBS. The average is 4.5 per game. Again, we have 2 in 3 games! Maybe coaching is a factor, but it seems a LOT more like a talent issue. BTW, last year we were 14th nationally with 5.67 per game (between Clemson & Ohio St)
So BO doesn’t suck as a HC? Nope, not saying that. I don't know. As Gabe likes to say their issues are some mix of talent, coaching, culture & more. I’m just trying to quantify the talent part of that mix on Defense … and it’s big.
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