With the league wrapping up their non-con slate, save for big 12/SEC challenge, make-ups or late adds, let's take a look at where we stand...
1. Metrics -- Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and Eric Haslam all have quality systems. Each has their strengths and weaknesses, some are higher on some teams than others, and some (Pomeroy) are culling out preseason data at a slower rate. Regardless, taken together, they give you a pretty solid picture. Let's see where the SEC squads stack up...
(Mean -- Pom -- Torvik -- Haslam)
1. Tennessee -- 5.3 -- 9th -- 5th -- 2nd (Home/Away)
2. Florida -- 21.0 -- 22nd -- 23rd -- 18th (Away)
3. Arkansas -- 25.3 -- 35th -- 25th -- 16th (Home/Away)
4. Ole Miss -- 25.6 -- 32th -- 24th -- 21st (Home/Away)
5. Mizzou -- 27.6 -- 39th -- 20th -- 24th
6. LSU --34.0 -- 36th -- 46th -- 20th (Home)
7. Alabama -- 55.3 -- 55th -- 54th -- 57th (Home)
8. Kentucky -- 58.0 -- 52nd -- 52nd -- 70th (Home)
9. USCe --71.0 -- 64th -- 76th -- 73rd (Home/Away)
10. Auburn --77.0 -- 65th -- 84th -- 82nd (Away)
11. UGA --81.3 -- 85th -- 90th --69th (Away)
12. MSU -- 82.6 -- 80th -- 95th -- 73rd (Away)
13. aTm --101.3 -- 75th -- 106th -- 123rd (Home/Away)
14. Vandy -- 129.3 -- 135th -- 142nd -- 111th (Home)
So...the Metrics picture pretty much appears to be 4 tiers. Tennessee is alone in tier 1. Florida through LSU teams are in tier two, which should solidly be in the picture for a tournament bid. Tier 3 is Bama and Kentucky (with potentially USCe who has only played 3 games) as teams with work to do, but the talent to pull it off. Then there's the rest. I've also included in the above list where Mizzou plays that particular opponent. Mizzou has 5 away games against teams rated 9-13. Needless to say, how they're able to perform in those contests will go a long way in determining conference finish. They do have a nice split up top with 4 home games and 4 road games against the likely tourney bid contenders.
2. Resumes -- Using Torvik's handy Wins Above Bubble tool, which is a cumulative ranking that tallies (and subtracts) estimated values of game results that have already occurred and ranks them based on "best resume," or more accurately, how many wins a team is above an average bubble team at that moment. Here's how the SEC stacks up (with national rank in parentheses):
1. Mizzou (4th)
2. Tennessee (22nd)
3. Arkansas (27th)
4. Georgia (37th)
5. Florida (65th)
6. Auburn (68th; ineligible)
7. LSU (70th)
8. Ole Miss (102nd)
9. aTm (113th)
10. Alabama (120nd)
11. USC (129th)
12. Vandy (149th)
13. MSU (174th)
14. Kentucky (287th)
Not real useful in terms of looking ahead, but useful in looking back and seeing what teams have accomplished and who needs to do what going forward. It's not a real pretty picture when Arkansas sits 3rd and hasn't played a top 100 team yet (to their credit, they haven't lost to a sub 100 team yet either).
Taking a look at the "best wins" thus far by the league, using Pomeroy, they'd be ranked as follows:
1. Illinois 7th -- (Mizzou)
2. Oregon 17th -- (Mizzou)
3. Colorado 24th -- (Tennessee)
4. Memphis 60th -- (Auburn)
5. Providence 63rd -- (Alabama)
6. Furman 70th -- (Alabama)
7. Cincy 76th -- (Tennessee)
7. Cincy 76th -- (UGA)
9. Tulsa 89th -- (USC)
10. Wichita 95th -- (Mizzou)
That represents the entire spectrum of top 100 wins the league has accumulated in the non-con. Yikes. At least Mizzou is looking good.
3. Projected Standings -- This is taken from the Pomeroy and Torvik systems (and averaged) which projects the games individually and the record as a whole. Warning, as mentioned before, Pomeroy is still relying on pre-season data quite a bit so this will be a little more unkind to Mizzou than it maybe should be. Regardless:
1. Tennessee 13.5-4.5
2.Florida 11.5-6.5
Ole Miss 11.5-6.5
4. Mizzou 10.5-7.5
Arkansas 10.5-7.5
6. LSU 10-8
7. Alabama 9-9
8. UK 8-9 (had USC game tentatively canceled)
9. USC 7.5-9.5
10. Auburn 7.5-10.5
11. UGA 7-11
MSU 7-11
aTm 7-11
14. Vandy 4-14
So again, based on the looks of things there's a clump of teams that will either have to catch up to UT, or hope the Vols fall back...maybe both. Regardless, it could shape up to be a pretty entertaining race for the league crown.
1. Metrics -- Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and Eric Haslam all have quality systems. Each has their strengths and weaknesses, some are higher on some teams than others, and some (Pomeroy) are culling out preseason data at a slower rate. Regardless, taken together, they give you a pretty solid picture. Let's see where the SEC squads stack up...
(Mean -- Pom -- Torvik -- Haslam)
1. Tennessee -- 5.3 -- 9th -- 5th -- 2nd (Home/Away)
2. Florida -- 21.0 -- 22nd -- 23rd -- 18th (Away)
3. Arkansas -- 25.3 -- 35th -- 25th -- 16th (Home/Away)
4. Ole Miss -- 25.6 -- 32th -- 24th -- 21st (Home/Away)
5. Mizzou -- 27.6 -- 39th -- 20th -- 24th
6. LSU --34.0 -- 36th -- 46th -- 20th (Home)
7. Alabama -- 55.3 -- 55th -- 54th -- 57th (Home)
8. Kentucky -- 58.0 -- 52nd -- 52nd -- 70th (Home)
9. USCe --71.0 -- 64th -- 76th -- 73rd (Home/Away)
10. Auburn --77.0 -- 65th -- 84th -- 82nd (Away)
11. UGA --81.3 -- 85th -- 90th --69th (Away)
12. MSU -- 82.6 -- 80th -- 95th -- 73rd (Away)
13. aTm --101.3 -- 75th -- 106th -- 123rd (Home/Away)
14. Vandy -- 129.3 -- 135th -- 142nd -- 111th (Home)
So...the Metrics picture pretty much appears to be 4 tiers. Tennessee is alone in tier 1. Florida through LSU teams are in tier two, which should solidly be in the picture for a tournament bid. Tier 3 is Bama and Kentucky (with potentially USCe who has only played 3 games) as teams with work to do, but the talent to pull it off. Then there's the rest. I've also included in the above list where Mizzou plays that particular opponent. Mizzou has 5 away games against teams rated 9-13. Needless to say, how they're able to perform in those contests will go a long way in determining conference finish. They do have a nice split up top with 4 home games and 4 road games against the likely tourney bid contenders.
2. Resumes -- Using Torvik's handy Wins Above Bubble tool, which is a cumulative ranking that tallies (and subtracts) estimated values of game results that have already occurred and ranks them based on "best resume," or more accurately, how many wins a team is above an average bubble team at that moment. Here's how the SEC stacks up (with national rank in parentheses):
1. Mizzou (4th)
2. Tennessee (22nd)
3. Arkansas (27th)
4. Georgia (37th)
5. Florida (65th)
6. Auburn (68th; ineligible)
7. LSU (70th)
8. Ole Miss (102nd)
9. aTm (113th)
10. Alabama (120nd)
11. USC (129th)
12. Vandy (149th)
13. MSU (174th)
14. Kentucky (287th)
Not real useful in terms of looking ahead, but useful in looking back and seeing what teams have accomplished and who needs to do what going forward. It's not a real pretty picture when Arkansas sits 3rd and hasn't played a top 100 team yet (to their credit, they haven't lost to a sub 100 team yet either).
Taking a look at the "best wins" thus far by the league, using Pomeroy, they'd be ranked as follows:
1. Illinois 7th -- (Mizzou)
2. Oregon 17th -- (Mizzou)
3. Colorado 24th -- (Tennessee)
4. Memphis 60th -- (Auburn)
5. Providence 63rd -- (Alabama)
6. Furman 70th -- (Alabama)
7. Cincy 76th -- (Tennessee)
7. Cincy 76th -- (UGA)
9. Tulsa 89th -- (USC)
10. Wichita 95th -- (Mizzou)
That represents the entire spectrum of top 100 wins the league has accumulated in the non-con. Yikes. At least Mizzou is looking good.
3. Projected Standings -- This is taken from the Pomeroy and Torvik systems (and averaged) which projects the games individually and the record as a whole. Warning, as mentioned before, Pomeroy is still relying on pre-season data quite a bit so this will be a little more unkind to Mizzou than it maybe should be. Regardless:
1. Tennessee 13.5-4.5
2.Florida 11.5-6.5
Ole Miss 11.5-6.5
4. Mizzou 10.5-7.5
Arkansas 10.5-7.5
6. LSU 10-8
7. Alabama 9-9
8. UK 8-9 (had USC game tentatively canceled)
9. USC 7.5-9.5
10. Auburn 7.5-10.5
11. UGA 7-11
MSU 7-11
aTm 7-11
14. Vandy 4-14
So again, based on the looks of things there's a clump of teams that will either have to catch up to UT, or hope the Vols fall back...maybe both. Regardless, it could shape up to be a pretty entertaining race for the league crown.
