In the wake of last night's performance, I've seen a lot of people calling Missouri maddening or acting like the Tigers are unique because they can beat any opponent on a good night or lose to anyone on an off night. I've also seen quite a few people (myself included) insist that's normal for the vast majority of college basketball teams. But I was curious if the numbers back that up. So I did a little research. I went through the top 40 teams in the NET rankings and tallied "bad losses." I counted any loss to a Quadrant 3 or Quad 4 opponent as well as any loss of 14 points or more. Missouri, obviously, has had three such games: no Quad 3 or 4 losses (which I think are more damaging from a resume standpoint than getting blown out by a better team, but I couldn't really weigh that in this exercise) and three blowout losses.
Here's what I found: It's very rare for any team to get through a season — or even 2/3 of a season, where we are right now —without at least one clunker. Of the top 40 teams in the NET, 29 have at least one "bad" loss. A few of those teams really shouldn't be compared to Mizzou, either. Loyola Chicago, for instance, has only played one Quadrant One game all season and lost it. St. Bonaventure has only played two Q1 games and only 12 games total. If you remove all teams from outside "high-major" conferences (Football Power Five plus Big East and AAC), which I think is fair because it's a bit easier to look consistent on paper when you're playing lesser competition, 25 of 33 teams have at least one "bad" loss. Here are the teams that do not:
Baylor, Gonzaga (no duh)
Illinois
Iowa (not exactly the picture of consistency — recently lost four out of five games)
Villanova
Texas Tech
Texas (recently lost four of five)
Xavier (has played just two Q1 games)
There are some very good teams with losses similar to Missouri's last night on their resume. Just skimming through the top 15, Michigan and Ohio State both lost to Minnesota by 17-plus on the road. (Minnesota is No. 52 in the NET, Ole Miss is No. 56.) Tennessee lost at Florida by 26 and, of course, went from dominating Missouri to getting dominated by them. Alabama has a Q3 loss at home to Western Kentucky and an 18-point loss to Stanford and probably should have another blowout loss on its resume had Mizzou not melted down. Houston has by far the worst loss of any top-15 team against East Carolina, which checks in at No. 143 in the NET.
Including Missouri, there are eight high-major teams in the top 40 with three "bad" losses so far this season — the same number as have none. So all of that is to say Missouri probably doesn't qualify as unique in terms of its low points this season.
However, the Tigers do stand out in a couple ways. First of all, they are one of just three top-40 teams to lose three games by 14-plus points this season. None have lost more than three. The others: Oklahoma and Penn State (which is 7-9 on the season). This team has definitely had some issues stemming the momentum when a game starts going poorly. Missouri also has more highlights to go along with its low points. Of the other teams with three "bad" losses so far this season, none has as many Quadrant I wins as Missouri's five. In fact, Mizzou is one of eight teams nationally with five or more Q1 wins on the year. Only one, Oklahoma State, has as many "bad" losses as Mizzou. Only one other team from that group, Alabama, even has two. While that's good from a resume standpoint for the Tigers in that it has amassed more Q1 wins than bad losses, it definitely suggests that this team has been a bit more Jekyll-and-Hyde than the vast majority of good teams. That's probably especially true when you consider we've seen a couple times this year when they've looked both absolutely dominant and absolutely helpless for stretches within the same game (Mississippi State, Alabama). I have no way to measure if other teams have experienced that, but I watch enough basketball to know it's pretty uncommon, at least to that extent.
Here's what I found: It's very rare for any team to get through a season — or even 2/3 of a season, where we are right now —without at least one clunker. Of the top 40 teams in the NET, 29 have at least one "bad" loss. A few of those teams really shouldn't be compared to Mizzou, either. Loyola Chicago, for instance, has only played one Quadrant One game all season and lost it. St. Bonaventure has only played two Q1 games and only 12 games total. If you remove all teams from outside "high-major" conferences (Football Power Five plus Big East and AAC), which I think is fair because it's a bit easier to look consistent on paper when you're playing lesser competition, 25 of 33 teams have at least one "bad" loss. Here are the teams that do not:
Baylor, Gonzaga (no duh)
Illinois
Iowa (not exactly the picture of consistency — recently lost four out of five games)
Villanova
Texas Tech
Texas (recently lost four of five)
Xavier (has played just two Q1 games)
There are some very good teams with losses similar to Missouri's last night on their resume. Just skimming through the top 15, Michigan and Ohio State both lost to Minnesota by 17-plus on the road. (Minnesota is No. 52 in the NET, Ole Miss is No. 56.) Tennessee lost at Florida by 26 and, of course, went from dominating Missouri to getting dominated by them. Alabama has a Q3 loss at home to Western Kentucky and an 18-point loss to Stanford and probably should have another blowout loss on its resume had Mizzou not melted down. Houston has by far the worst loss of any top-15 team against East Carolina, which checks in at No. 143 in the NET.
Including Missouri, there are eight high-major teams in the top 40 with three "bad" losses so far this season — the same number as have none. So all of that is to say Missouri probably doesn't qualify as unique in terms of its low points this season.
However, the Tigers do stand out in a couple ways. First of all, they are one of just three top-40 teams to lose three games by 14-plus points this season. None have lost more than three. The others: Oklahoma and Penn State (which is 7-9 on the season). This team has definitely had some issues stemming the momentum when a game starts going poorly. Missouri also has more highlights to go along with its low points. Of the other teams with three "bad" losses so far this season, none has as many Quadrant I wins as Missouri's five. In fact, Mizzou is one of eight teams nationally with five or more Q1 wins on the year. Only one, Oklahoma State, has as many "bad" losses as Mizzou. Only one other team from that group, Alabama, even has two. While that's good from a resume standpoint for the Tigers in that it has amassed more Q1 wins than bad losses, it definitely suggests that this team has been a bit more Jekyll-and-Hyde than the vast majority of good teams. That's probably especially true when you consider we've seen a couple times this year when they've looked both absolutely dominant and absolutely helpless for stretches within the same game (Mississippi State, Alabama). I have no way to measure if other teams have experienced that, but I watch enough basketball to know it's pretty uncommon, at least to that extent.
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