1. I want to be clear I'm not advocating to fire Barry Odom this morning, nor do I think there's any chance of anything happening before the end of the season. The Internet sucks at gray areas and nuance. You don't have to be saying "Fire him today" or "You're an idiot if you think he should be fired." There's a lot of room in between those two statements.
Those who are angry and are thinking Missouri should get rid of him (save probably a select few) aren't even saying do it today. They aren't saying it's a done deal he should be fired. What they're saying (and where I'm at) is that if you get to the end of the season--or the end of next season--and Missouri does move on from him, Saturday is the day that started to make a lot of people think that is possible. I've got a lot to say on this subject and could probably fill most of the ten thoughts with it, but I'm going to try to confine it to the first three.
2. There are football reasons people have a ton of doubts about Odom. First off, the defense is still terrible. There's really no argument otherwise. They gave up 37 points to Purdue. Is Purdue a better offense than we thought at the time and is David Blough a better quarterback? Yeah. But the Boilermakers have only scored more than 37 points once this season and that was against a Nebraska team that is one of two winless Power Five teams in the country. Nobody's given up more passing yards to Purdue, not just this year, but EVER. They gave up 37 points to South Carolina. The Gamecocks scored 37 against Vandy and 49 against Coastal Carolina. First of all, that's not the company Missouri should be wanting to keep. Second of all, that was with the starting quarterback in the game.
To me, the biggest thing is that the South Carolina game this year was very similar to the South Carolina game last year. Missouri had the lead and momentum and was playing pretty well. And then one thing went against them (Deebo Samuel's kick return last year, the Damarea Crockett reversal this year) and Missouri just went in the tank. Bad things happen during the course of a football game. Good teams handle them and put them in the past. Missouri didn't in either case. This also happened in the Purdue game, really. The Tigers were up big, had a little something go against them late in the second quarter and allowed it to snowball into a game where Purdue got the lead back when it never should have. This team simply doesn't handle adversity very well. And that's a problem. And the person who has to be held accountable for that is the head coach.
The final football thing here is that Missouri just doesn't beat good teams. They didn't beat one all of last year. They have not beaten one this year. I don't even think South Carolina is all that good. It's average to a little above average. But those teams beat Missouri. That's the definition of an average football team. It beats all of the bad teams, loses to all of the good teams and loses to most of the okay teams. I won't fault anybody for losses to Georgia and Alabama or to LSU two years ago or Auburn last year. But you've got to win some games like Kentucky last year and South Carolina this year or you're forever stuck in 5-7 to 7-5 territory and that's just not good enough.
3. There are non-football reasons people are skeptical too. At the beginning of the season, really dating back to when the schedule came out, we all knew 0-3 in this stretch was possible. But I told some people after the Purdue game that 1-2 needed to happen. This is a fanbase that has disintegrated over the last three years. The interest just isn't there outside of the diehards. And if Missouri lost three straight and came back at 3-3 with the best win being Purdue, the attendance was going to continue to decline. I think they'll get 50 against Memphis just because it's Homecoming. I'll be shocked if they get 50 for either of the last two home games. I know this fanbase. I know what it will come out for. It won't come out for a .500 team whose best win is Purdue. And that absolutely is going to factor into Jim Sterk's thinking over the next year and a half.
4. So let's talk about what is likely to happen. Missouri is almost certainly going to lose this weekend (like if you play Bama at Bama 100 times, you might win two--maybe Saturday is one of the two, but logic says it isn't). It is going to be an underdog to Kentucky and to Florida. As we talked about above, those aren't games Missouri wins. If you lose both of those, your ceiling is 7-5. I've said all along, the record that tells me progress has absolutely been made is 8-4. If you finish 7-5, the best team you've beaten is Purdue...and the Boilermakers might not make a bowl game (some will argue Memphis is better and Memphis might make a bowl game, but it's not a Power Five team and it's a game Missouri absolutely shouldn't lose. In fact, if Memphis wins that game, we're going to take a lot of the hypotheticals we're talking about and start talking about them being likely).
Is 7-5 progress? Not really. It's the same regular season record as last year. And you're now replacing your four-year starter at quarterback, two senior offensive linemen, your top receiver, a tight end, your two best defensive linemen (Terry Beckner and Walter Palmore), two starting linebackers and both of your starting safeties. It doesn't give you a lot of warm fuzzies for the future.
I don't think 7-5 would cost Odom his job. But it also wouldn't instill a lot of confidence for the future or earn an extension. It puts us right back where we were at the start of this season which is "Is he the right guy? We have no idea."
5. One thing I did like about Saturday is we finally saw some of the young guys. Tyree Gillespie and Joshuah Bledsoe played a lot at safety. Trajan Jeffcoat got a series at defensive end. Kam Scott got back on the field. Yeah, some of it was due to injury, but not all of it. Let's take a look at some of these other guys, especially on defense where Missouri can use all the help it can get.
Those who are angry and are thinking Missouri should get rid of him (save probably a select few) aren't even saying do it today. They aren't saying it's a done deal he should be fired. What they're saying (and where I'm at) is that if you get to the end of the season--or the end of next season--and Missouri does move on from him, Saturday is the day that started to make a lot of people think that is possible. I've got a lot to say on this subject and could probably fill most of the ten thoughts with it, but I'm going to try to confine it to the first three.
2. There are football reasons people have a ton of doubts about Odom. First off, the defense is still terrible. There's really no argument otherwise. They gave up 37 points to Purdue. Is Purdue a better offense than we thought at the time and is David Blough a better quarterback? Yeah. But the Boilermakers have only scored more than 37 points once this season and that was against a Nebraska team that is one of two winless Power Five teams in the country. Nobody's given up more passing yards to Purdue, not just this year, but EVER. They gave up 37 points to South Carolina. The Gamecocks scored 37 against Vandy and 49 against Coastal Carolina. First of all, that's not the company Missouri should be wanting to keep. Second of all, that was with the starting quarterback in the game.
To me, the biggest thing is that the South Carolina game this year was very similar to the South Carolina game last year. Missouri had the lead and momentum and was playing pretty well. And then one thing went against them (Deebo Samuel's kick return last year, the Damarea Crockett reversal this year) and Missouri just went in the tank. Bad things happen during the course of a football game. Good teams handle them and put them in the past. Missouri didn't in either case. This also happened in the Purdue game, really. The Tigers were up big, had a little something go against them late in the second quarter and allowed it to snowball into a game where Purdue got the lead back when it never should have. This team simply doesn't handle adversity very well. And that's a problem. And the person who has to be held accountable for that is the head coach.
The final football thing here is that Missouri just doesn't beat good teams. They didn't beat one all of last year. They have not beaten one this year. I don't even think South Carolina is all that good. It's average to a little above average. But those teams beat Missouri. That's the definition of an average football team. It beats all of the bad teams, loses to all of the good teams and loses to most of the okay teams. I won't fault anybody for losses to Georgia and Alabama or to LSU two years ago or Auburn last year. But you've got to win some games like Kentucky last year and South Carolina this year or you're forever stuck in 5-7 to 7-5 territory and that's just not good enough.
3. There are non-football reasons people are skeptical too. At the beginning of the season, really dating back to when the schedule came out, we all knew 0-3 in this stretch was possible. But I told some people after the Purdue game that 1-2 needed to happen. This is a fanbase that has disintegrated over the last three years. The interest just isn't there outside of the diehards. And if Missouri lost three straight and came back at 3-3 with the best win being Purdue, the attendance was going to continue to decline. I think they'll get 50 against Memphis just because it's Homecoming. I'll be shocked if they get 50 for either of the last two home games. I know this fanbase. I know what it will come out for. It won't come out for a .500 team whose best win is Purdue. And that absolutely is going to factor into Jim Sterk's thinking over the next year and a half.
4. So let's talk about what is likely to happen. Missouri is almost certainly going to lose this weekend (like if you play Bama at Bama 100 times, you might win two--maybe Saturday is one of the two, but logic says it isn't). It is going to be an underdog to Kentucky and to Florida. As we talked about above, those aren't games Missouri wins. If you lose both of those, your ceiling is 7-5. I've said all along, the record that tells me progress has absolutely been made is 8-4. If you finish 7-5, the best team you've beaten is Purdue...and the Boilermakers might not make a bowl game (some will argue Memphis is better and Memphis might make a bowl game, but it's not a Power Five team and it's a game Missouri absolutely shouldn't lose. In fact, if Memphis wins that game, we're going to take a lot of the hypotheticals we're talking about and start talking about them being likely).
Is 7-5 progress? Not really. It's the same regular season record as last year. And you're now replacing your four-year starter at quarterback, two senior offensive linemen, your top receiver, a tight end, your two best defensive linemen (Terry Beckner and Walter Palmore), two starting linebackers and both of your starting safeties. It doesn't give you a lot of warm fuzzies for the future.
I don't think 7-5 would cost Odom his job. But it also wouldn't instill a lot of confidence for the future or earn an extension. It puts us right back where we were at the start of this season which is "Is he the right guy? We have no idea."
5. One thing I did like about Saturday is we finally saw some of the young guys. Tyree Gillespie and Joshuah Bledsoe played a lot at safety. Trajan Jeffcoat got a series at defensive end. Kam Scott got back on the field. Yeah, some of it was due to injury, but not all of it. Let's take a look at some of these other guys, especially on defense where Missouri can use all the help it can get.
