1. Last week, there were many (here and elsewhere, not attacking anyone in particular, there were a lot of them) that were offended at the idea Purdue might be able to beat--or even compete--with Missouri. Well, it happened. And guess what? It doesn't mean Missouri is terrible or the season is over or even that Missouri can't win next week. Maryland beat Texas. Two weeks later, Maryland got blown out by Temple and Texas blew out USC. One week just doesn't have a huge impact on the next week. They're 20 year old kids. Sometimes they play great, sometimes they play terrible. Over the course of a full season it all evens out, but trying to determine what one game means for the next game is an exercise in futility.
2. That doesn't mean there weren't problems. Good Lord, that pass defense. I mean, that needs to set off alarm bells no question. Purdue should not throw for 572 yards on you (doesn't matter who the QB is, doesn't matter if you had a cornerback hurt, nothing matters--that yardage total is absolutely ridiculous). The biggest issue, as many have identified, is that Missouri can't get to the quarterback. They can't get there with four. And a lot of times on Saturday they didn't get there with five or six. According to PFF snap counts, there were 27 times a linebacker or a defensive back rushed the passer (Obviously I can't tell you if that means they rushed on 27 snaps or if there were times where two guys were blitzing on the same snap, but 27 times Missouri brought a non-defensive lineman to rush the quarterback). And Missouri rarely put much pressure on David Blough. Terez Hall rushed the passer ten times and I don't remember him ever being close enough to Blough to cause a problem.
So there are three things I think should happen:
A) Blitz. A lot. On virtually every down. Missouri wasn't stopping the passing game when they had seven or eight guys in coverage, so why not bring six or seven and just hope? Maybe you'll get there. Maybe you'll cause a turnover. And, yeah, maybe you'll get beat deep and give up 572 yards passing. Guess what? You already did that.
B) Disguise your blitzes better. Don't give away where you're coming from. Without watching film I can't say for sure this was a problem on Saturday, but given that the blitzes rarely seemed to work, it seems like a safe bet to me.
C) Play Jatorian Hansford and Trajan Jeffcoat, especially in obvious passing situations. Maybe they're not good. Maybe they'll kill you if they get out there. But Chris Turner, Nate Anderson, Tre Williams and Franklin Agbasimere aren't exactly setting the world on fire. I'm fine with taking a look at some other guys.
3) The secondary isn't great, don't get me wrong. But you just can't cover anybody for six seconds. It's not possible. They do one on one pass rush drills in practice. If the DL doesn't get to the stationary QB target in about 3 seconds, it's a win for the offense. I'll even give the defense an extra second. From the time of the snap, get there in 4 seconds and I think you're giving your defensive backs a decent chance. Anything longer than that, the offense is going to kill you.
4) Part of that is the fact that every rule change in the last quarter century has favored the offense. You can't touch a receiver past five yards anymore. This is true at every level. For proof, look at the Chiefs and Steelers yesterday. The Chiefs defense made about three plays all day. And they were all negated on defensive penalties. If you give even an average quarterback these rules and four seconds to throw the ball, somebody's getting open.
5) Let's talk about the quarterback. I think he's playing as well as anybody in the country (maybe not as well as Tua Tagovailoa, but Tua has a better team around him). In the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the Wyoming game plus the first three quarters of the Purdue game, Missouri scored 64 points. Here are Drew Lock's numbers in those five quarters (that's a game and a quarter for the mathematically challenged):
45-for-70, 667 yards, 7 touchdowns
7 carries, 43 yards, 2 touchdowns
In 1.25 games.
6) Let's give Cornell Ford some credit. He loved Tyler Badie and stayed on Badie and got him to flip from Memphis last year. On the final drive, we were all stunned to look out there and see Badie as the running back on the final drive. After the game, Ford even told me he had some doubts about it, but he went with his gut feeling. On that drive, Badie had a 20-yard catch and four carries for 26 yards and also had a nice block on a passing play to give Lock a little extra time (I can't remember if it was on the completion to Emanuel Hall off hand). He's going to play a lot. He may not be the No. 2 back every week, but he's going to play a lot. He earned that this weekend.
7) Brandon Lee has to be careful. He got booted from the Wyoming game from targeting. On like his second play at Purdue, I thought he could have been called for it. There were at least two or three plays where Mitchell and I thought Lee could have drawn a flag (they weren't all targeting, just a penalty of some sort). Something to watch out for.
8) Wrapping up the Purdue game, I posted this but many probably didn't see it. It always amazes me the way fans look at things versus the way players and coaches do. I don't want to pretend the players and coaches don't see any problems, because you can't watch that game and not see any problems. But they were all genuinely happy to win the game. They're 3-0 for the first time in three seasons and they're pleased to be there. Are there issues to address? Sure. Everybody has some (except maybe Alabama). But as Herm Edwards said, you play to win the game. You don't necessarily play it to win 55-0 every week. Sure, you'd like to, but it isn't realistic. It's not a video game. The other players and coaches are trying too. Sometimes, they're going to be successful. It often strikes me that fans want perfect games and will spend the next six days nit-picking the problems. Players and coaches will address those problems too...but they'll never let them dampen the fact that they've won every game they've played so far.
9) My initial prediction for this weekend is that Missouri plays really well and keeps it close. I think Georgia will win the game. But I think Missouri will go into the fourth quarter with a chance. That, to me, is the bar for success. If you play with UGA and make them sweat, I think Missouri fans should walk away happy. My initial pick is Georgia 44, Missouri 35. That may change over the course of the week.
10) Missouri has done what it had to do so far. Looking at the schedule, you knew that the Tigers needed to be 3-0 going into the UGA game. This weekend is almost a house money type of game. You shouldn't win. Nobody will pick you to win. If you do, it changes the entire season. If you don't, so what? All along, I've thought that if Missouri can find one win in the next three games, it has a chance at a really good season. Even if the Tigers lose all three, I think they've put themselves in a position where eight wins should absolutely be the target and nine is still possible. But if they can steal any of the next three games, they're going to be favored in each of their last six games and 8-4 will be the bare minimum with 10-2 not out of the question. So the Tigers get a solid A-minus for the first quarter of the season. If they're 1-2 in the next three and don't get humiliated by Georgia, I'll give them a B for the second quarter. Anything better than 1-2 would be an A+.
2. That doesn't mean there weren't problems. Good Lord, that pass defense. I mean, that needs to set off alarm bells no question. Purdue should not throw for 572 yards on you (doesn't matter who the QB is, doesn't matter if you had a cornerback hurt, nothing matters--that yardage total is absolutely ridiculous). The biggest issue, as many have identified, is that Missouri can't get to the quarterback. They can't get there with four. And a lot of times on Saturday they didn't get there with five or six. According to PFF snap counts, there were 27 times a linebacker or a defensive back rushed the passer (Obviously I can't tell you if that means they rushed on 27 snaps or if there were times where two guys were blitzing on the same snap, but 27 times Missouri brought a non-defensive lineman to rush the quarterback). And Missouri rarely put much pressure on David Blough. Terez Hall rushed the passer ten times and I don't remember him ever being close enough to Blough to cause a problem.
So there are three things I think should happen:
A) Blitz. A lot. On virtually every down. Missouri wasn't stopping the passing game when they had seven or eight guys in coverage, so why not bring six or seven and just hope? Maybe you'll get there. Maybe you'll cause a turnover. And, yeah, maybe you'll get beat deep and give up 572 yards passing. Guess what? You already did that.
B) Disguise your blitzes better. Don't give away where you're coming from. Without watching film I can't say for sure this was a problem on Saturday, but given that the blitzes rarely seemed to work, it seems like a safe bet to me.
C) Play Jatorian Hansford and Trajan Jeffcoat, especially in obvious passing situations. Maybe they're not good. Maybe they'll kill you if they get out there. But Chris Turner, Nate Anderson, Tre Williams and Franklin Agbasimere aren't exactly setting the world on fire. I'm fine with taking a look at some other guys.
3) The secondary isn't great, don't get me wrong. But you just can't cover anybody for six seconds. It's not possible. They do one on one pass rush drills in practice. If the DL doesn't get to the stationary QB target in about 3 seconds, it's a win for the offense. I'll even give the defense an extra second. From the time of the snap, get there in 4 seconds and I think you're giving your defensive backs a decent chance. Anything longer than that, the offense is going to kill you.
4) Part of that is the fact that every rule change in the last quarter century has favored the offense. You can't touch a receiver past five yards anymore. This is true at every level. For proof, look at the Chiefs and Steelers yesterday. The Chiefs defense made about three plays all day. And they were all negated on defensive penalties. If you give even an average quarterback these rules and four seconds to throw the ball, somebody's getting open.
5) Let's talk about the quarterback. I think he's playing as well as anybody in the country (maybe not as well as Tua Tagovailoa, but Tua has a better team around him). In the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the Wyoming game plus the first three quarters of the Purdue game, Missouri scored 64 points. Here are Drew Lock's numbers in those five quarters (that's a game and a quarter for the mathematically challenged):
45-for-70, 667 yards, 7 touchdowns
7 carries, 43 yards, 2 touchdowns
In 1.25 games.
6) Let's give Cornell Ford some credit. He loved Tyler Badie and stayed on Badie and got him to flip from Memphis last year. On the final drive, we were all stunned to look out there and see Badie as the running back on the final drive. After the game, Ford even told me he had some doubts about it, but he went with his gut feeling. On that drive, Badie had a 20-yard catch and four carries for 26 yards and also had a nice block on a passing play to give Lock a little extra time (I can't remember if it was on the completion to Emanuel Hall off hand). He's going to play a lot. He may not be the No. 2 back every week, but he's going to play a lot. He earned that this weekend.
7) Brandon Lee has to be careful. He got booted from the Wyoming game from targeting. On like his second play at Purdue, I thought he could have been called for it. There were at least two or three plays where Mitchell and I thought Lee could have drawn a flag (they weren't all targeting, just a penalty of some sort). Something to watch out for.
8) Wrapping up the Purdue game, I posted this but many probably didn't see it. It always amazes me the way fans look at things versus the way players and coaches do. I don't want to pretend the players and coaches don't see any problems, because you can't watch that game and not see any problems. But they were all genuinely happy to win the game. They're 3-0 for the first time in three seasons and they're pleased to be there. Are there issues to address? Sure. Everybody has some (except maybe Alabama). But as Herm Edwards said, you play to win the game. You don't necessarily play it to win 55-0 every week. Sure, you'd like to, but it isn't realistic. It's not a video game. The other players and coaches are trying too. Sometimes, they're going to be successful. It often strikes me that fans want perfect games and will spend the next six days nit-picking the problems. Players and coaches will address those problems too...but they'll never let them dampen the fact that they've won every game they've played so far.
9) My initial prediction for this weekend is that Missouri plays really well and keeps it close. I think Georgia will win the game. But I think Missouri will go into the fourth quarter with a chance. That, to me, is the bar for success. If you play with UGA and make them sweat, I think Missouri fans should walk away happy. My initial pick is Georgia 44, Missouri 35. That may change over the course of the week.
10) Missouri has done what it had to do so far. Looking at the schedule, you knew that the Tigers needed to be 3-0 going into the UGA game. This weekend is almost a house money type of game. You shouldn't win. Nobody will pick you to win. If you do, it changes the entire season. If you don't, so what? All along, I've thought that if Missouri can find one win in the next three games, it has a chance at a really good season. Even if the Tigers lose all three, I think they've put themselves in a position where eight wins should absolutely be the target and nine is still possible. But if they can steal any of the next three games, they're going to be favored in each of their last six games and 8-4 will be the bare minimum with 10-2 not out of the question. So the Tigers get a solid A-minus for the first quarter of the season. If they're 1-2 in the next three and don't get humiliated by Georgia, I'll give them a B for the second quarter. Anything better than 1-2 would be an A+.
