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1) Since these are Monday morning thoughts, that means it's Monday and the world continued to spin despite Kadin Shedrick going to Texas. I kid. Kind of. I understand that the vast majority of people actually handled the news relatively fine. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking the fringe is the majority simply because they're so loud in their arguments. Especially online. So I think most Missouri fans understand that there are other big men in the portal (and maybe even some that will still enter) and that Missouri will probably get one. Maybe he will be as good as Kadin Shedrick, maybe he won't. We'll find out in about seven months. But the point is simple: Almost no individual recruit is worth the level of angst delivered in the wake of a decision. Every year there are guys that are termed "must gets" that turn out to be, well, not must gets. And every year there are guys that whose commitments are greeted with shrugs and even groans who are nice surprises. A year ago, nobody here was all that excited when Dennis Gates brought in Tre Gomillion. Many outwardly questioned what he was doing. We found out late in the year that Gomillion was pretty damn important to that team. This time a year ago, most here were handing Sean East the starting point guard position and considering Nick Honor a nice secondary option. Didn't turn out that way.
The point is two-fold:
First, every program in America is going to miss on a lot more guys than it gets. Missouri has contacted somewhere around 40 players in the transfer portal. And those are just the ones we know about. They're going to end up taking probably five. That's a hit rate of, at best, 12.5%. Which means they're going to "miss" on 87.5% of the guys they look at. And probably more than half of the guys they seriously pursue. That's recruiting. It's not unique to Missouri or a bad sign for Missouri. It's literally math.
Second, I don't know if Kadin Shedrick is good or not. I know he's tall. I know he's athletic. I know he showed some flashes. I also know he averaged 6.2 points and 3.8 rebounds this year. I know he had offensive and defensive rebounding rates that were actually lower than Mohamed Diarra's at Missouri this season. This isn't a shot at Shedrick. He may be great. Missouri may regret missing out on him. It also may very well find someone who actually turns out to be better.
2) Shedrick also reminded us that we should not put a lot of weight in what recruits actually say. As he was doing the lead-up interview to his commitment, he said a lot of things that sounded like he was describing Missouri. So much so that during that interview, I got a text that said "Based on what he's saying, it sounds like Mizzou." And then it wasn't. The reason Shedrick cited for going to Texas is its history of developing big men, even though he admitted that Rodney Terry just got there. What Rick Barnes or Chris Beard or Shaka Smart did for big men doesn't really matter because Shedrick isn't playing for any of those guys. He also said in the end, he went with his gut feeling.
To some this is going to sound like sour grapes. I promise it isn't. I lost not one second of sleep because of where Shedrick is going to play. It's just a reminder that the reasons stated for picking a program are recruiting's version of coachspeak most of the time. And that includes the ones that pick Missouri. Maybe he liked Texas' uniforms. Maybe he met a great girl on his visit. Maybe he liked the campus better or the players better or maybe he got more money or a million other reasons. In the end, he made a choice and, like most of them, he did it on a gut feeling. Again, I have no ill will for what that decision was. It may end up being great. Just a(nother) message to you guys that what these kids say isn't really anything you should spend a lot of time worrying about. Which I know is probably the wrong message for me to send when I run a site that literally talks to these kids throughout the recruiting process and tells you what they say. But it's really not usually all that important.
3) One final reason Missouri fans shouldn't be all that worried about last night's decision. You have a coach who literally five weeks ago was coaching a team made up of Kobe Brown and a bunch of guys from the Horizon League in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That doesn't mean Dennis Gates is Basketball Jesus. It doesn't mean he's perfect or even that I know he's great. It means he's earned the benefit of the doubt until further notice. Seriously, a year ago, not one person on this board thought Missouri could win 25 games and one in the NCAA Tournament. I know I didn't. I thought a good season would be finishing above .500 and playing in the NIT. If everything went perfectly I thought they might be able to sneak in on the right side of the bubble. They exceeded every single reasonable expectation. Does that mean they'll do that every year? Of course not. But it does mean that Gates has earned the trust of the fanbase to be able to put together a roster that gives Missouri a chance going into the season. I don't know who he'll get to replace Shedrick, but he'll get somebody. And they'll play 30-something games next year and if the first four years of his coaching career are any indication, they'll probably be just fine.
4) So what's left with Shedrick going elsewhere? Obviously they'll need to find a big man. We know Jamarion Sharp is out there. He visited Ole Miss this weekend. I believe Missouri is recruiting him. I also believe Missouri isn't simply going to wait around to see what he does. He's going through the NBA Draft process. Whenever he is done with that, if he comes back to school and Missouri hasn't filled that spot, maybe the Tigers get him. But just because he's the only name we know for sure doesn't mean he's the only one there is. We had no idea John Tonje was a real option until he committed. Nobody knew they were serious about Caleb Grill until about two days before he visited. My guess is Missouri has been in communication with far more than two big men.
The other decision we're waiting on is from Matthew Cleveland. The Florida State wing has a final three of Missouri, Miami and Auburn. He's visited Mizzou. There are reports he's visited Miami and he's looking to set up a visit to Auburn. There is a lot of confidence around Missouri. As I reported last week, one person told me the Florida State staff thinks he'll end up in Columbia. Since the news he was on campus broke (I think we reported that Thursday morning) I've felt more confident about Mizzou's chances to land Cleveland than to land Shedrick. Nothing I've heard lately tells me I should waver in that. Doesn't mean he's coming here. It's recruiting and until it's announced, things can change regularly. But as things stand right now, I think Missouri's still in good shape.
5) Cleveland would be a nice Kobe Brown replacement. Brown entered his name in the NBA Draft yesterday while maintaining his eligibility. He could come back. But as Gates said a couple of weeks ago, you have to recruit like nobody is coming back. Missouri certainly has to approach the next few weeks as if Brown has played his final game in a Missouri uniform. Cleveland and Brown aren't identical players by any means. Brown is bigger and stronger and probably more of a threat on the block. He also shot 10% better from three-point range on about 50% more attempts than Cleveland did. But Cleveland is better at getting his own shot, got to the free throw line about 30% more often and blocked twice as many shots. When I say he's a nice replacement for Kobe, I mean it as in a leading scorer, the guy you give the ball to when you need a bucket. Missouri has a lot of good pieces for next season, but what I'm not sure it has right now is a number one option. I think Cleveland is a number one option. He's said he wants to make a decision by May 5, which is the end of next week. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes sooner than that.
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