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1) This is the final installment of Ten Thoughts before football season (kind of) starts. Next Monday, Eli Drinkwitz and Mizzou's contingent will take the stage at SEC Media Days in Nashville. We will be there to pass along everything Missouri says. The goal will probably be to blend in. And it shouldn't be that hard. The Tigers will go on the same day as LSU and Texas A&M and safe to say they'll be the least nationally in demand program of the day. LSU is considered a potential national title team with Heisman possibility Jayden Daniels leading the way. Texas A&M is one of those programs that whether it's good or bad has rarely failed to be interesting in the last few years. Missouri is...also there.
Blending in isn't exactly Eli Drinkwitz's thing. More than anything in three years in the SEC he's probably been known for his willingness to say things that get headlines and make sound bites. I really do think that changes this year. Drinkwitz was really burned by an out of context tweet at SEC spring meetings. He'd already publicly said he was trying to tone down the snark and say fewer controversial things, at least until he started winning more games. The deal in May reinforced that stance. I'd expect Drinkwitz to be very non-descript at college football's biggest media circus. And I think he'll take players who he knows will do the same. Drinkwitz knows as well as any of us it's time for Missouri's play to do some talking and make the focus turn from what the head coach might have said that week to what the team actually did. Of course, every now and then, Drinkwitz just can't help himself. I'd be willing to bet there are still a couple of one-liners followed by a smirk.
2) That said, those of you here care far less about what he says and far more about what questions he needs to answer on the field. Here are the top storylines for his team going into media days (none of these can get actual answers next week, but they're the questions we're going to be asking for the next 52 days until they play a game).
*Who's the starting quarterback and since he doesn't know that now how soon will he make that decision? More and more, I think it's a decision that could happen some time in the first couple of weeks of the season rather than during camp.
*How does the offensive line improve and what's the rotation? I'd be surprised if the line wasn't better this year. The question is whether it will be better enough and exactly where the puzzle pieces fit in finding the five best guys.
*Can the defense be even better than it was last year? Will it need to be? Missouri's season really comes down to this. The defense was very good last year. Personally, I believe it was a step short of elite. It was good enough to drag an offense that wasn't very good at all to six wins and almost to eight. But Missouri got pretty much everything it could out of the defense and there were still some times during the season it looked closer to average than great. The entire season really comes down to this: If Missouri has a similar defense to last year or even better does the offense improve enough to take that step forward? If Missouri has a defense that takes a step back (it's not out of the question, which is something that I think too few people are acknowledging as possible) is the offense better enough to to neutralize that step back? It's unfair to ask the defense to be even better than it was last year. Whether or not Mizzou steps forward this season is primarily on the offense.
*Speaking of that offense, how different is it going to look because of the presence of Kirby Moore? It's a lot to put on an OC in his first year in Power Five football, but that's where we're at. Drinkwitz was hired because of his offensive background. Outside of handing the ball to a running back, his offenses haven't really done anything very well consistently. This needs to be the year that changes. But again, we're not going to get an actual answer to this until at least September 16th and probably longer. Every year, Missouri has said the right things about the offense going into the season, but very little of it has actually happened once the games start. In other words, I don't much care what they say about the offense over the next two months. I need to see it in action before I'm going to believe it.
3) Since you all love the predictions and the only question anybody really cares about is what will Missouri's record be this season, I'll go ahead and take my pre-media days, pre-camp stab at a season prediction.
South Dakota: W
Middle Tennessee: W
These two are non-negotiable
Kansas State: L
I think Missouri can win this game. But I have to see them do it. I think this is the swing game of the season. Lose this one and I don't see any way you win more than seven. And more than seven is true "breakout year" territory. If Missouri's going to take the leap you all hope and really outperform expectations, I think this needs to be a win. A win doesn't guarantee it will happen, but a loss will make me pretty sure it isn't going to happen.
Memphis: W
Vanderbilt: W
Again, if you're going to have a season that gives anyone any optimism going forward, these have to be wins. You have to be 4-1 after the Vandy game at a minimum.
LSU: L
The Tigers are going to be very good and Brian Kelly in year two is going to be very good.
Kentucky: L
South Carolina: W
You can reverse these picks if you want. I don't feel super strongly about either one individually. I just think the most likely scenario is that Missouri splits them. If they Tigers win both, we start getting into that "Oh, hang on, people are starting to pay attention" territory. If they lose both, it will be "Can he win enough games to keep his job?" I think they'll split.
Georgia: L
Tennessee: L
I think Georgia will make sure there's no repeat of last year's game. I think Tennessee has been the puzzle Drinkwitz hasn't come anywhere close to solving.
Florida: W
Arkansas: W
Picking games four months in advance is dumb. Who knows what any of these three teams is going to look like at the end of the year? But I don't think a lot of Florida right now and Missouri has beaten Arkansas a lot more than it hasn't so for now I'll predict a win and a two-game streak to end the regular season 7-5. The season will be decided by the record against Kansas State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas. Right now, I've got Mizzou going 3-2 in those games. Better than that and you're talking about a team that might finish in the top 25. Worse and you're talking about us having a serious debate the weekend after Thanksgiving about whether Drinkwitz is coaching this team next season.
4) Some more Mizzou predictions:
Leading passer: Sam Horn
Leading rusher: Cody Schrader
Leading receiver: Luther Burden
Offensive player of the year: Luther Burden
Sack leader: Darius Robinson
Interception leader: Joseph Charleston
Defensive player of the year: Darius Robinson
Freshman of the year: Jamal Roberts
Newcomer of the year: Tre'Vez Johnson
5) Other random SEC football predictions:
Team that's better than most people expect: Auburn
Team that's worse than most people expect: South Carolina
Player of the Year: Jayden Daniels
Coach of the Year; Brian Kelly
East winner: Georgia
West winner: LSU
SEC Champ: Georgia
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