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1) One thing you can't say about Mizzou basketball this year is that it's inconsistent. Unfortunately, that's not a positive. The Tigers have been remarkably consistent for the last six weeks. Since December 9, Mizzou has played 11 games. It has lost ten of them. The ten losses have come by a combined 105 points, 10.5 per game for you non-math majors. But somehow, they've almost all felt closer than that (Florida and Illinois being exceptions). Missouri can't close. In seven SEC games, they've been outscored by 32 points after the under 8 TV timeout. That's an average of 4.5 points per game in the final 20% of the game.
Last year, Mizzou was 13-3 in games decided by single digits. This year, the Tigers are 3-7, including six consecutive losses. Close doesn't count in sports. That margin is the difference between a team that won 25 games and went to the second round of the NCAA Tournament and one that is going to finish under .500 and will almost certainly be playing on Wednesday night in the SEC Tournament in Nashville. If Mizzou continues its current pace, it will end up 5-11 in single-digit games. That's eight games worse than last year. It won't account for the entire difference in the two seasons, but it will account for the vast majority of it.
2) This week will determine just how low the depths could sink. Missouri hosts Arkansas on Wednesday and travels to Vanderbilt on Saturday. Those two teams are a combined 15-24 overall and 1-13 in SEC play. Neither of them is going anywhere Missouri isn't going. These are the two best chances Missouri has at a conference win. If the Tigers could get these two, who knows, you might have a little confidence and even figure out a way to pick up two or three more in the back half of the schedule. If not, 0-18 is in play. I do not think it is likely, but if you're not going to beat an Arkansas team that has lost its three road games by an average of 19.3 points or a Vanderbilt team whose best win is Dartmouth (no, for real) then who are you going to beat? If this were a pro team, we'd be at the point of the season where we're all begging for them to tank to draft Victor Wenbenyama. Of course, this is college sports and there's no reward for being historically bad. So you might as well try to win as many as you can.
3) At this point, everyone is already looking toward next year. There's good reason for that. We're not going to start pushing guys into the portal. We know Noah Carter, Sean East, Nick Honor, Connor Vanover and Caleb Grill (assuming he plays again) are out of eligibility. John Tonje and Jesus Carralero-Martin are likely eligible for a waiver that could get them one more year. The rest of the players we know have at least one year of eligibility remaining. So while we aren't going to push guys out, let's prioritize what Dennis Gates should be trying to do. Here's the order in which I believe he should attempt to bring players back for next season. This doesn't include Mabor Majak or Kaleb Brown, who are both walk-ons this season. If he wants them back, fine, they're not taking up a scholarship anyway.
Tamar Bates: He's your go-to guy next year. You do what it takes to keep him
Anthony Robinson: Point guard of the future, freshman who has shown the most promise.
Jordan Butler: He's already starting to come on and has played more than predicted at the beginning of the season. Get him in the weight room and he can be a centerpiece on both ends of the floor.
Trent Pierce: Yes, this season has failed to live up to the hype. But he's a true freshman and you've got to believe there's something there that had everyone buzzing in the offseason.
Aidan Shaw: You could put him above Pierce and I wouldn't argue. But he's a year older, he's played a lot more and the development on the offensive end simply hasn't happened.
John Tonje: If Gates wants him back and thinks he can turn into the player they thought he was last summer, I won't argue. But I wouldn't prioritize it either.
Curt Lewis: There might be more there than we've seen so far, but right now he looks like an 11th or 12th man. In a season where you're going to be needing to win back a lot of good will, I'm not sure how he fits in if you can upgrade the roster in the portal.
Jesus Carralero-Martin: I don't think you can bring him back for another year at the expense of adding someone in the portal. He is a good passer most of the time and you see some brief flashes, but he basically doesn't look at the basket unless there's no other choice and I don't see him as a significant piece of a tournament team.
4) So what should Gates be looking for when the portal opens in April? I'm going to operate under the assumption he's got three spots (You've got five freshmen coming in, you keep five guys from this year's roster).
Veteran point guard: Preferably a grad transfer. Robinson has hit a bit of a wall since Missouri started conference play. Again, in a year where you're going to need to win to bring some fans back, I'm not sure you can turn over the team to a sophomore who hasn't yet shown the ability to be a starting caliber lead guard. This has to be priority number one. In a perfect world, it's a grad transfer who is your starter for a year and then Robinson takes over.
Stretch four: Give me a player who can play on the wing and score from outside, but who offers you some inside presence on both ends. Pierce is more of a three even if he takes a big leap next year. This is the role you want Marcus Allen to fill, but he's more of a defensive player in his first year. Shaw is a four defensively, but we haven't seen it offensively yet. Missouri needs a guy who can go down and mix it up with some muscle down low, but is capable of stepping outside if necessary.
Best available: I'm not one who believes you have to have a 6-10 guy in the middle all the time, especially with the way Gates plays. You'll have Butler and Peyton Marshall for size. If there's a difference-making big man (say another Kaden Shedrick) that you can get, cool. I'd probably prioritize that. But if this spot simply goes to the best scorer you can land, I won't object to that either.
5) On the women's side, after beating Vanderbilt and Georgia in the middle of the month, Missouri was 11-7 and you could start mapping out a possible path toward enough wins to squeak into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers have since lost to Kentucky, Texas A&M and Arkansas (combined 9-12 in league play) to fall back to 11-10. There's really no path I can realistically draw to the NCAA Tournament barring a miracle run in the SEC Tournament. Coming into the year, it seemed pretty clear that Mizzou needed to make the dance to extend Robin Pingeton's run in Columbia. That seems unlikely, which would mean Pingeton has gone to four NCAA Tournaments in 14 years, all coming with Sophie Cunningham on the roster. With Cunningham, Pingeton was 92-39 and won three NCAA Tournament games. Without her, she's 118-115 and has never finished better than seventh in the conference. I think we all know where this is headed.
