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1) Fall camp opens at 11:15 this morning. The first day of fall camp always brings the need for a reminder (that will be completely ignored): Do not put too much stock in what you read or see over the next month. I am not saying camp is meaningless. I am saying that we get to see approximately 1/4 of the practices and they are the least important 1/4. And we get to see none of the film study, interaction off the field, etc. So we are operating with maybe 5% of the total information. Which player gets his number first isn't that big a deal. If a player happens to have a good day or a bad day while we are watching that doesn't mean every day he has is similarly good or bad. In other words, we'll do the best we can to inform you over the next month, but we're really not going to get answers to many of the questions we have during that time.
2) This is my 22nd consecutive season covering Mizzou (24 total if you want to include the two I did at KOMU in college). It is unlike any other in terms of the buildup. There is always excitement. I truly don't think there has ever been excitement like this. In 2008, Missouri fans believed they had the pieces to make a run at the whole thing. But they knew that meant being one of the top two teams and they knew one loss almost certainly ended those chances. That loss came in week 7 to Oklahoma State and the air went out of the balloon after that. It simply felt like there was nothing left to play for.
That won't be the case this year. After Missouri's first loss (assuming it occurs) everything will still be on the table. Losing to A&M or Alabama or even Auburn won't end the playoff chances. It will reduce the margin for error. The second less (if it happens) would make for a nervous few days at the least. But the season isn't over after one bad day. That's the biggest impact of the 12 team playoff.
I expect this season to be an interesting psychological study for the fanbase. All are very excited now. But the games haven't started. Nothing bad can actually happen for at least six weeks. Once the games do start, I expect there to be two ways people will consume this season. The first group will live every day counting down until the next game with an enthusiasm they've never had for Mizzou football before. The second group will live every day in constant fear wondering if the next day is the day this dream season gets derailed. I don't mean that to sound insulting or as a joke. It isn't. That's the two camps of fans there are. I think one group of fans enjoys the highs of its team more than it hates the lows. That's the group that will look at this season optimistically. I believe the second type of fan is the one to whom losing hurts more than winning feels good. Wins are a relief, losses are a dagger. For those fans, this fall is going to be stressful like few they've ever experienced.
To borrow a line from Sam Mellinger, I can't tell you how to fan. Everyone has his own approach. If I was in your shoes, I'd try to enjoy the hell out of it. There's no guarantee your'e back in this same spot next year or the year after that. If you don't throw caution to the wind and enjoy the ride, why even get in line?
3) The weird thing about all this buildup is we're more than two months away from actually answering any of our questions. As I said above, camp can't really do it. And because of the way the schedule shapes up, September can't really do it either. The only things we can find out in the first four games are bad. I'm not going to tell you there's no way Boston College or Vanderbilt comes in here and wins. If Missouri and Buffalo played 100 times, the Bulls probably even find a way to pull off a few. But I'll say this: If Missouri is anything less than 4-0 at the end of September, you can forget all the playoff talk. There's simply no way you can lose one of those September games and get in. Because if you lose one of those, you're losing at least one more and probably more than one more. And if you're 10-2 with a loss to Boston College or Vandy on the resume, it's extremely unlikely. If you're worse than 10-2 (which would be a virtual certainty with a loss in September) there's no chance.
4) I have sensed a bit of a gap between what people around Mizzou think of this team and what people nationally think of this team. The gap isn't a huge one, but it's significant. People that are around this team regularly, people that cover them, the fans, etc, are all openly talking about the possibility of making the playoff. It is the clear goal. If you step back and take a bigger picture view of what people are saying about Missouri, I think it's viewed as a team with playoff possibilities, but not necessarily likelihood. I think most outside of Missouri are looking at this as a top 20 team but maybe not a top 10 team.
This isn't trying to get into who will be right or wrong because I have no idea. I think it simply proves something that's always been true: When following sports, we tend to be optimistic about what we know. Let me explain:
If I told you that a team had lost five NFL draft picks on defense, plus the defensive coordinator, plus the leading single-season rusher in school history and a kicker who made some of the biggest kicks in school history and the starting left side of its offensive line, you would say "Well, that team's going to take a step back." But when it's YOUR team, you say "Yeah, but two of those draft picks were hurt a decent amount, one of them is playing a different position in the NFL and we crushed the transfer portal to replace the other two. Then running back is the most replaceable position in sports and the kicker also missed a lot of makable kicks and the offensive line is actually going to be better this season." The point is, YOU know about Cayden Green and Marcus Bryant and Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll. You are all in on the potential of Darris Smith and Zion Young and Chris McClellan and Khalil Jacobs. Those who don't follow Missouri every day? They probably don't know about a lot of those guys.
To flip the script, look at LSU. They lost the Heisman winner at quarterback and two first rounders at receiver and the defense was terrible already. So there's no way they can be better, right? The truth is, I have no idea. A year ago at this time, few thought Jayden Daniels was as good as he ended up being. Maybe Garrett Nussmeier is great. I don't know who the receivers stepping in are. I don't know what LSU has done to patch up the defense. But I bet people who cover LSU and LSU fans are optimistic about their chances to be better.
We won't know which viewpoint of this Mizzou team is right for four months. There are legitimate reasons to feel both ways. I think pretty much everybody believes Mizzou will be good. It's just a question of whether you believe Mizzou will be elite. I think the general feeling outside the fanbase is that they won't quite be that. I think the reason is simple: People just aren't ready to buy into Missouri as a program that's ready to compete at that level. It doesn't compute in their brains. The casual college football fan--or even the general national media member--isn't ready to put Mizzou in with some of the programs that are there year in and year out. It takes a lot more than one season to earn that type of respect in college football.
