1. So we'll start with basketball and Missouri's loss to South Carolina yesterday. On the surface it's not a terrible loss. Let me rephrase: It's not a terrible loss. But it does give us all an idea of where we need to recalibrate expectations. Missouri isn't going to the NCAA Tournament this year barring a run at the SEC Tournament. Most of us knew that. But we did have some brief moments of optimism coming out of the non-conference season that they might be able to make it interesting. Time to forget that notion. To get there, Missouri was going to have to win at least ten games in the SEC. That requires going 7-2 at home and finding three you can steal on the road. Is it technically impossible? I guess not, but SC looked like one of the more winnable road games and it's now a loss. The Gamecocks, even with their three-game league winning streak, are the only team in the SEC ranked below Mizzou on KenPom (Tigers are 92, Gamecocks are 102). That site now projects Missouri to go 6-12 in SEC play (down from 7-11 at the start) with a better than 50% win probability in only five league games (Arkansas, A&M, Vandy, South Carolina and Alabama at home). The new goal is what the goal has always been: Find a way over 500 and to the NIT. If you can do that, I refuse to call an NIT season a success, but it's not terrible.
2. The major problem in the last three games has been that Missouri is playing without Jeremiah Tilmon. In the last three games, here is Tilmon's COMBINED line: 34 minutes, 11 points, 3 rebounds, 9 turnovers, 15 fouls. 11 and 3 isn't even what Missouri needs on average for one game from him, much less three. So some have thrown out the idea of bringing Tilmon off the bench. It's not the worst idea I've seen. But who do you start in place of him? Sorry, but you're worse when you start Reed Nikko. You're basically saying "We're okay being less than what we want to be for the first few minutes of the game to protect Tilmon from fouls." Maybe it's smart. But I'm not sold. You could go small and start Kevin Puryear and KJ Santos at the forward positions. That wouldn't be the worst thing. But Santos has the worst offensive rating on the team and Puryear hasn't exactly been lighting it up against SEC frontcourts. I'd actually play Tilmon MORE early and just deal with the fouls as they happen. To me, it doesn't matter if he plays the first 15 minutes of the game or the last 15. If you're only getting 15 out of him, you're probably losing anyway. It's like a manager saving his closer for the ninth when he needs him in the sixth. If you save him, you may never even actually use him. If Missouri sits Tilmon most of the first 25 minutes in hopes he can help in the last 15, what if they're down 15 points by the time he gets on the floor and it doesn't even matter. Put him out there, hope he learns to foul less at some point and figure it out after if he doesn't.
3. So where are we at in the overall rebuilding process? Well, probably about where we should have expected to be. Year one was a little bit of fool's gold. The Porters came on board and gave the program a shot in the arm. Jordan Barnett turned into a better player than he'd ever been, Kassius Robertson was a better player than anyone possibly could have hoped for and Missouri had one of the biggest turnarounds in the country (might have been the biggest, I don't know for sure). But by the time the Tigers tipped off this season, the only thing left from that initial top ten recruiting class was Tilmon. So everyone understood it would be a miracle for this team to be as good as last year's team was. The miracle hasn't occurred.
When Cuonzo Martin was hired, Missouri was one of the five worst Power Five programs in the country. It had averaged nine wins for three years. That's almost impossible to do. Mizzou went for the one-year band-aid and it worked, to some extent. It didn't work to the extent they'd hoped, but it did inject some energy and return interest to the program. And now Martin has to go about building his program. It makes next year pretty big to me. Everyone on the roster has another year of experience. Martin has another recruiting class. The goal (not necessarily the expectation, but the goal) is to get back to the tournament. The expectation is most certainly to be better than you are this year and to put together a strong (top 20) 2020 recruiting class. If that happens, there are reason to feel very good about where things are going. The flip side is if Missouri isn't a fair amount better on the court and the 2020 recruiting class doesn't hit the levels you hope, there will start to be some questions about Martin's ceiling here. Fair or not, the questions will be there. (It's also worth noting that Missouri is losing the best player on this year's team...and as much as people destroy Kim Anderson's recruiting--and usually deservedly so--Jordan Geist was a guy Anderson brought into the program).
The next two years to me answer the major question I had when Missouri made the hire: Is Cuonzo Martin a guy who can take this program to new heights (or at least heights we haven't seen in 15 years) or is he a guy that is a vast improvement on what was here before him, but has a ceiling to where he'll go at Mizzou? Because (and this is not a new take from me), his entire career suggests he's a guy that is going to win 20-25 games and be one of the last eight teams in or first eight teams out of the NCAA Tournament. And as I said during the coaching search, that looks great for about four years coming from where Missouri came from. But how does it look six or seven years in?
I want to be clear that I'm not making any judgments at this point. I don't know the answer. But I think the next two years are going to give us a pretty good idea.
4. On the women's side, Missouri had a terrible loss on Sunday. There's no other way to put it. The Tigers lost to the worst team in the SEC because nobody scored in double figures and they gave up a 10-0 run to end the game. That shouldn't happen. The SEC is brutal. If you want to talk about having a chance to win it (or at least finish top four) and host a regional, Florida isn't a team you lose to. Sunday showed me the same things plague this team. Namely, they're inconsistent as hell. When the shots fall, they can beat anybody (see the win at Tennessee, although the Vols have lost two more since then). When they don't, they can lose to anybody. I'm not burying them by any means...but that was an awful loss.
5. With today being the deadline to declare for the NFL Draft, we're pretty sure things are over with Mizzou. Damarea Crockett is leaving and Albert Okwuegbunam is staying. So how about we try to project the two deep for next season:
QB: Kelly Bryant/Taylor Powell (or one of the other backups depending on transfers)
RB: Larry Rountree III/Tyler Badie
WR: Johnathon Johnson/Jalen Knox/Richaud Floyd
Kam Scott/Jonathan Nance/Dominic Gicinto
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam/Daniel Parker Jr/Messiah Swinson
OL: Yasir Durant/TreVour Wallace-Simms/Trystan Colon-Castillo/Mike Ruth/Hyrin Morrison-White
Juco or Grad Transfer/Case Cook/Jonah Dubinski/Xavier Delgado/Larry Borom
DE: Akial Byers/Trajan Jeffcoat
Chris Turner/Jatorian Hansford
DT: Jordan Elliott/Chris Daniels
Kobie Whiteside/Antar Thompson
LB: Nick Bolton/Cale Garrett/Ronnell Perkins
Cameron Wilkins/Jamal Brooks/Aubrey Miller
CB: Christian Holmes/DeMarkus Acy
Jarvis Ware/Adam Sparks
S: Tyree Gillespie/Joshuah Bledsoe
Khalil Oliver/Jalani Williams
PK: Tucker McCann/Sean Koetting
P: Joshua Dodge/???
2. The major problem in the last three games has been that Missouri is playing without Jeremiah Tilmon. In the last three games, here is Tilmon's COMBINED line: 34 minutes, 11 points, 3 rebounds, 9 turnovers, 15 fouls. 11 and 3 isn't even what Missouri needs on average for one game from him, much less three. So some have thrown out the idea of bringing Tilmon off the bench. It's not the worst idea I've seen. But who do you start in place of him? Sorry, but you're worse when you start Reed Nikko. You're basically saying "We're okay being less than what we want to be for the first few minutes of the game to protect Tilmon from fouls." Maybe it's smart. But I'm not sold. You could go small and start Kevin Puryear and KJ Santos at the forward positions. That wouldn't be the worst thing. But Santos has the worst offensive rating on the team and Puryear hasn't exactly been lighting it up against SEC frontcourts. I'd actually play Tilmon MORE early and just deal with the fouls as they happen. To me, it doesn't matter if he plays the first 15 minutes of the game or the last 15. If you're only getting 15 out of him, you're probably losing anyway. It's like a manager saving his closer for the ninth when he needs him in the sixth. If you save him, you may never even actually use him. If Missouri sits Tilmon most of the first 25 minutes in hopes he can help in the last 15, what if they're down 15 points by the time he gets on the floor and it doesn't even matter. Put him out there, hope he learns to foul less at some point and figure it out after if he doesn't.
3. So where are we at in the overall rebuilding process? Well, probably about where we should have expected to be. Year one was a little bit of fool's gold. The Porters came on board and gave the program a shot in the arm. Jordan Barnett turned into a better player than he'd ever been, Kassius Robertson was a better player than anyone possibly could have hoped for and Missouri had one of the biggest turnarounds in the country (might have been the biggest, I don't know for sure). But by the time the Tigers tipped off this season, the only thing left from that initial top ten recruiting class was Tilmon. So everyone understood it would be a miracle for this team to be as good as last year's team was. The miracle hasn't occurred.
When Cuonzo Martin was hired, Missouri was one of the five worst Power Five programs in the country. It had averaged nine wins for three years. That's almost impossible to do. Mizzou went for the one-year band-aid and it worked, to some extent. It didn't work to the extent they'd hoped, but it did inject some energy and return interest to the program. And now Martin has to go about building his program. It makes next year pretty big to me. Everyone on the roster has another year of experience. Martin has another recruiting class. The goal (not necessarily the expectation, but the goal) is to get back to the tournament. The expectation is most certainly to be better than you are this year and to put together a strong (top 20) 2020 recruiting class. If that happens, there are reason to feel very good about where things are going. The flip side is if Missouri isn't a fair amount better on the court and the 2020 recruiting class doesn't hit the levels you hope, there will start to be some questions about Martin's ceiling here. Fair or not, the questions will be there. (It's also worth noting that Missouri is losing the best player on this year's team...and as much as people destroy Kim Anderson's recruiting--and usually deservedly so--Jordan Geist was a guy Anderson brought into the program).
The next two years to me answer the major question I had when Missouri made the hire: Is Cuonzo Martin a guy who can take this program to new heights (or at least heights we haven't seen in 15 years) or is he a guy that is a vast improvement on what was here before him, but has a ceiling to where he'll go at Mizzou? Because (and this is not a new take from me), his entire career suggests he's a guy that is going to win 20-25 games and be one of the last eight teams in or first eight teams out of the NCAA Tournament. And as I said during the coaching search, that looks great for about four years coming from where Missouri came from. But how does it look six or seven years in?
I want to be clear that I'm not making any judgments at this point. I don't know the answer. But I think the next two years are going to give us a pretty good idea.
4. On the women's side, Missouri had a terrible loss on Sunday. There's no other way to put it. The Tigers lost to the worst team in the SEC because nobody scored in double figures and they gave up a 10-0 run to end the game. That shouldn't happen. The SEC is brutal. If you want to talk about having a chance to win it (or at least finish top four) and host a regional, Florida isn't a team you lose to. Sunday showed me the same things plague this team. Namely, they're inconsistent as hell. When the shots fall, they can beat anybody (see the win at Tennessee, although the Vols have lost two more since then). When they don't, they can lose to anybody. I'm not burying them by any means...but that was an awful loss.
5. With today being the deadline to declare for the NFL Draft, we're pretty sure things are over with Mizzou. Damarea Crockett is leaving and Albert Okwuegbunam is staying. So how about we try to project the two deep for next season:
QB: Kelly Bryant/Taylor Powell (or one of the other backups depending on transfers)
RB: Larry Rountree III/Tyler Badie
WR: Johnathon Johnson/Jalen Knox/Richaud Floyd
Kam Scott/Jonathan Nance/Dominic Gicinto
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam/Daniel Parker Jr/Messiah Swinson
OL: Yasir Durant/TreVour Wallace-Simms/Trystan Colon-Castillo/Mike Ruth/Hyrin Morrison-White
Juco or Grad Transfer/Case Cook/Jonah Dubinski/Xavier Delgado/Larry Borom
DE: Akial Byers/Trajan Jeffcoat
Chris Turner/Jatorian Hansford
DT: Jordan Elliott/Chris Daniels
Kobie Whiteside/Antar Thompson
LB: Nick Bolton/Cale Garrett/Ronnell Perkins
Cameron Wilkins/Jamal Brooks/Aubrey Miller
CB: Christian Holmes/DeMarkus Acy
Jarvis Ware/Adam Sparks
S: Tyree Gillespie/Joshuah Bledsoe
Khalil Oliver/Jalani Williams
PK: Tucker McCann/Sean Koetting
P: Joshua Dodge/???
