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Before you dive in here, I've already written a lot about Saturday's game in my Saturday night wrap and my Sunday morning thoughts as well as some Braggin' Rights thoughts so if there's something you don't see mentioned here, it's probably mentioned there. I'll wrap the Mizzou thoughts here and get into some national stuff as usual in this morning's thoughts.
1) Sometimes those of us in the media just try too hard. I'm not saying this to point out anyone specifically. It's a general thought and I include myself. After Missouri's 49-14 loss to Georgia (which really didn't feel that close), Eli Drinkwitz answered questions for 12 and a half minutes. We have a job to do. Part of that job is asking questions of players and coaches and getting their thoughts on what unfolded. But there simply aren't 12 minutes of questions to ask about that game. As Drinkwitz said a number of times, they got their butts beat. The game didn't turn on a play or a call or even a series of plays. Georgia simply had much better players and played much better. There's not a whole lot you can say about that game. I know we make a living off of analyzing every single aspect of every single thing that happens, but there just wasn't much that had to be said about that game. You saw it. You know what happened. So does everyone else who saw it.
2) That said, the real reason Missouri fans are so optimistic about where the program is headed isn't on the field. It's on the recruiting trail. The early signing period opens on Wednesday and runs through Friday. Right now, the Tigers have 21 commitments and we are expecting them all to sign early at this point. The class is currently at No. 20 in the Rivals team rankings. We'll update the perfect class tomorrow and have a full preview either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning that includes players the Tigers are still chasing. Unless there are big surprises, we don't really know of any other four-stars who the Tigers could get this week so while the overall class score could go up a little bit, it probably wouldn't be significant. In looking at the teams behind Missouri in the rankings, here are the ones that would seem to have a chance to catch them: Iowa, Penn State, Washington, Florida State, Auburn. Those are the ones we come up with based on their current standing and number of commits. So, at worst, we think Mizzou would have a class that ranks about 25th. That would be the second highest rank ever for a Tiger class (they were 21st in 2010). More than that, the Tigers currently rank 8th in the SEC. Since joining the conference, Mizzou has never had a class that ranked better than 12th in the league on signing day.
3) That's a step in the right direction for sure, but it has to become the rule and not the exception. We talked a lot on Saturday about the talent disparity. Georgia has signed 76 four- or five-star players in the last four years. Missouri has signed 4. Here's that number for every team in the SEC from 2017-2020:
Alabama 87
Georgia 76
Florida 61
A&M 57
LSU 56
Auburn 52
Tennessee 46
South Carolina 29
Kentucky 20
Mississippi State 23
Arkansas 22
Ole Miss 20
Vandy 7
Missouri 4
I left two gaps there for a reason. I'll get into that on the next point. But for now, look at the list. Missouri has been the worst recruiting team in the SEC over the last four years and it hasn't really been close. In terms of average star ranking, Missouri has finished 13th, 13th, 14th and 13th. They've finished behind Vanderbilt in that metric twice and have signed three fewer four- or five-star players than the Commodores over the last four years. EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THE LEAGUE HAS SIGNED AT LEAST FIVE TIMES AS MANY FOUR-STAR PLAYERS AS MISSOURI.
Now, I know, we're gonna get the stars don't matter crowd. And on an individual basis, they don't. But the more four-stars you have, the more chances you have of hitting a really good player. The two-stars who become superstars are noteworthy because they are exceptions. Four-stars who become good players don't get as much publicity because you expected them to be good. The more highly ranked players you sign, the better the chances are that you signed some really good players.
Anyway, my point when I started this was that the 2021 class is a step in the right direction, but don't expect it to just make everything better in year one on campus. There are a lot of holes on this roster now and there will be more soon. And while you're bringing in a good recruiting class, 75% of your roster is still made up of recruiting classes that were in the bottom three in the SEC. I say this all to say this: Don't be alarmed if Missouri doesn't take a giant step forward next year, or even if it takes a bit of a step back. To build the roster to the talent level of the vast majority of this league is going to take at least two and more likely three full recruiting classes for Drinkwitz.
4) Let's go a little further into that analysis of each team in the point above. The top six teams on that list are going to be top seven teams on National Signing Day basically every single year. I'm sure you can find an exception here or there when one had a coaching change or a small class or something. But if you take any five-year period in history, I'd bet Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn are going to be in the top half of the league in recruiting rankings and the top 20 in America.
I left a gap because then we get to Tennessee. They still recruit like an SEC powerhouse. But it's been 20 years since they've been one. At some point, we have to stop ignoring what's written on paper and start acknowledging what we see with our eyes. We're talking about multiple coaches over multiple years signing all kinds of talent and not winning in Knoxville. So Tennessee is almost always going to beat Missouri in the recruiting rankings, but the last two decades also tell us it doesn't matter.
The next gap is before the other seven teams in the league. These are the teams Missouri needs to be beating in recruiting. The others aren't realistic to outrecruit on paper over a period of time. Drinkwitz's goal needs to be outrecruiting Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas and the Mississippi schools (if you're not outrecruiting Vanderbilt, honestly, the rest of it's not even worth the time to discuss). He doesn't have to beat every one of those schools every single year, but he needs to make a habit of doing it more often than not. If Missouri can consistently put itself between 7th and 9th in the recruiting rankings in the conference, overachieving from that point gives you a shot to be playing meaningful games. If you're constantly 12th, 13th or 14th in the league standings on signing day, that means getting to 9th is technically overachieving by quite a bit. That's where Missouri has found itself the last few years. Here are the conference records of the eight non-elite recruiting schools in the league in the five seasons from 2015-19:
Mississippi State: 18-22
Kentucky: 17-23
Tennessee: 16-24
South Carolina: 16-24
Ole Miss: 14-26
Missouri: 13-27
Arkansas: 9-31
Vandy: 9-31
So basically, Missouri was the 12th best team on the field during that stretch while being either 13th or 14th in recruiting. They were within a game of Ole Miss, three of Tennessee and South Carolina, four of Kentucky and five of Mississippi State. That's basically one game per season from being the best team in the league not in that elite recruiting territory. So the hope is that by going from bottom three to middle third of the league in recruiting, you can make up those games and consistently find yourself going a little better than .500 in the league which would put you atop these standings. Then from there you set your sights on being able to beat Georgia and/or Florida on the right day. You're never beating them in recruiting rankings, but if you can close the talent gap some, then you give yourself a chance on the field to be better than those teams on one specific day. In other words, Missouri doesn't have to recruit like an SEC power; it just has to stop recruiting like an SEC bottom feeder.
