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1) Missouri basketball didn’t play this weekend and benefitted from it. First of all, it was really a weird Saturday. There are ALWAYS basketball games on Saturday this time of year. Except this year, especially if you were scheduled to play Texas A&M. But despite not playing, it was a good weekend for the Tigers. Florida beat Kentucky, which knocked the Cats back behind Mizzou in the league standings. Missouri holds the tiebreaker. It also knocked Ole Miss, which lost to Vanderbilt, down into a tie with Mizzou, although the Rebels have the tiebreaker there. LSU and Tennessee both lost as well, bringing those teams back within striking distance for the Tigers. Honestly, things went as well as possible in every regard other than the fact the Tigers didn’t get to play the Aggies, which almost certainly would have given them a win, just their second in six tries.
2) Missouri can still finish anywhere from 4th to 10th in terms of seeding for the SEC Tournament. If the Tigers win both of their games this week and Vandy beats LSU, Mizzou is the 4 seed in the league tournament at 9-7. Conversely, if Mizzou loses both of its games and Georgia beats Alabama, the Tigers can fall as far as the ten seed. The likelihood is probably somewhere in the middle, but that’s how volatile things are in the league standings. If LSU beats Vanderbilt, Missouri cannot get a top four seed in the SEC Tournament regardless of what the Tigers do this week (unless I’ve missed a scenario which is always possible).
3) Of course, what you really want to know is where the Tigers will be seeded in the Big Dance…or if they will be seeded at all. As of Saturday, Joe Lunardi had the Tigers as a 7 seed and Jerry Palm still had them as a 6 ON SUNDAY. That means, with two potential Quad 1 games this week (LSU is currently 31st in the NET, which makes it a Quad 2 game because it’s at home), it’s going to be very difficult for the Tigers to play their way out of the field. They’d likely have to lose both of those games and then also lose their first game in the SEC Tournament…and even that might not be enough to knock them out. I’d say the ceiling is a 5 seed for the Tigers if they can win two this week and at least a couple in Nashville. The floor is probably realistically about a 10. If Missouri can manage to get one win in the next ten days, they’re going to be very safely in. If one of them is against LSU or Florida (again, both potentially Quad 1 games by Selection Sunday), I’d expect Missouri to be seeded to win its first NCAA Tournament game.
4) This was the weekend that really crystallized the fact that the SEC just isn’t very good in basketball this year. Alabama is a very good team and will likely be a two seed, but I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see the Tide fail to make it out of the first weekend. They’ve got the ability to make a run, but their floor is getting blown out by Arkansas and (for most of the day) Missouri. They’ll face someone in the second round who’s got the ability to beat them. Arkansas is hot and they’re the second-best team in the league and the only other team with much of a chance at a 4 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. LSU and Florida are wildly inconsistent. Tennessee is the biggest disappointment in the league. Ole Miss and Mizzou are okay. Kentucky has its worst team in forever. Everybody else is bad a lot more than they’re good. The league has as many teams ranked below 90 in the NET (4) as it does teams in the top 30.
5) I think the SEC should boot Texas A&M from the conference tournament. At best, the Aggies will play two games this week, giving them ten total games for the conference seasons. Auburn is ineligible for the league tournament, which means it features only 13 teams. That means Wednesday in Nashville features the 12 vs 13 game and nothing else. What’s the point in playing A&M/Vandy that night? The Aggies don’t appear to have made any effort to get back on the court. A&M has missed six games, while no other team in the league has missed more than two. I don’t think they deserve any chance to make a run in the conference tournament. Plus, getting rid of A&M means you don’t have to play that meaningless game on Wednesday night. You start Thursday with 5/12, 6/11, 7/10 and 8/9, then play everything else as scheduled Friday through Sunday. I haven’t heard any indication this will happen, but I think it’s what the SEC should do.
