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1) Let's reset the roster for everyone real quickly.
Returning: Kobe Brown, Javon Pickett, Jordan Wilmore
Out: Jeremiah Tilmon, Dru Smith, Drew Buggs, Mark Smith, Mitchell Smith, Xavier Pinson, Torrence Watson, Parker Braun, Ed Chang
In: Anton Brookshire, Yaya Keita, Sean Durugordon, Trevon Brazile, Kaleb Brown, Amari Davis, DaJuan Gordon, Jarron Coleman
Remaining: Two spots for this spring if Missouri wants to use them
2) Now, let's put that in terms of numbers for you guys.
Returning: 43.4 minutes, 15.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists
Out: 167.5 minutes, 60.9 points, 25.0 rebounds, 11.5 assists
In: 90.9 minutes, 39.9 points, 14.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists
Basically, to have the numbers be the same as last year, Missouri would need to add two players who combine for 21 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5 assists per game. Not impossible. That obviously doesn't mean that Missouri would have the same team. But the production would be pretty much the same.
3) I'm not at all sure Missouri will add two more players. If they're the right two, they will. But...
I'm confident the only high school player they're really after is Tamar Bates. So is pretty much everyone else. Could they get him? Sure. He visited a few times, he's stated he'd like to play for a black head coach, he's originally from pretty near by. It's possible. But there's going to be a world of competition. He's the ninth most highly rated undecided high school player in the country. He'll have plenty of choices.
I'm also confident Missouri's top target as far as another transfer is Creighton's Christian Bishop. I'm also pretty confident he's not coming to Missouri.
These two situations are a little bit different. With what you've added in the backcourt, if you miss on Bates, you don't have to go after another guard or wing. But if you miss on Bishop, you still need to go get a forward/big man. I don't care if it's a 6-7 guy or a 7-6 guy, but you need someone who can play in the paint and give you some production.
In other words, they're going to take a transfer who can play in the paint. The 13th spot is more up in the air. If they can get Bates (or even another transfer that they really, really like) I think they'll take him. But I don't think they have to fill the 13th spot. They only had 12 last year and still had one guy who (literally) never played, one who almost never played and two more who transferred out because they didn't play very much. You fill the 13th spot if you can fill it with someone you think is a difference maker, but you don't fill it just to fill it (they've done that in the past, but didn't do it last year).
4) I think it's fair to say, in general, the public opinion has swayed since I last wrote this piece. Seven days ago, there was a very, very vocal faction quite angry with Cuonzo Martin, upset at this season, despondent about the recruiting and convinced he had no chance to ever be better than he was this year. Seven days later, after the transfer additions and with more to come, most of the critics seem to be, if not happy, at least somewhat encouraged and a bit more optimistic about the future.
There are a few reasons this is happening:
Every day the end of the season gets further away people feel a little bit better. Even bad teams convince themselves over the course of the offseason that the next year is their year. Being a fan means having hope. If you have no hope, why pay attention? If there's a little hope, fans turn it into a lot. If there's a decent amount, fans turn it into a huge amount. If there's a huge amount, fans convince themselves they're winning a title. This isn't Missouri fans. This is fandom in general. It's what we do.
The idea that Cuonzo Martin somehow wasn't going to fill the roster was always misguided. He was always going to replace the players that left. Not one player who has left was unexpected. In fact, I'd say most players who left were welcomed/encouraged. Many of the reactions last week came off as if Missouri was going to have Kobe Brown, Javon Pickett and 11 walk-ons next year. That was never going to be the case. They were always going to add guys. I understand why people a week ago were skeptical that he'd add the right guys (we still don't know if he has), but the negativity was always too much. As we said last week, he's rebuilding the roster this offseason. If he's right, he'll be here pretty much as long as he wants to be here. If he's wrong, he'll get fired, probably in a couple of years.
5) Either way, I think Cuonzo has done enough to accomplish the main offseason objective. I still wouldn't predict Missouri will make the tournament next year. I don't think it's impossible, but I probably wouldn't project it. But the goal to me was to make sure that next year was a step back and not a leap off the cliff. I think we're at least past the point where anybody's talking about 10 wins for the whole season. They need to be competitive, to be good enough to maintain interest, to gain some experience and build some momentum. And then they need to be good again in two years. Like tournament good. I talked about the road map last week and that hasn't changed. Again, it's possible they do enough to make the tournament next year. But even if they don't, at least we aren't going to have huge chunks of the fanbase quitting on them before the season starts. That's important. Cue the "so this is good enough for you and you settle for mediocrity" crowd. Obviously that's not what I'm saying, but I know the responses that will come to this.
