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1) We're starting on a far less happy note than we generally do here, but I think it's important to do so. Aaron O'Neal died 16 years ago today. SIXTEEN YEARS.
On one hand, for those of us who really remember it, for those of us who were there--but far more importantly, for those who were closer to him than any of us were--it doesn't seem nearly that long ago. On the other hand, I know it's been a long time because in the last couple of years, I've had to look up exactly when it happened and had to remind myself to remember it.
I try to link the story I wrote on the ten-year anniversary of Aaron's death every year. For those who haven't read it, or those who have and feel pulled to do so again, here is the story. I've written very few things I'm more proud of than that in my nearly 18 years doing this. But that's not why I'm linking it. I'm linking it for this quote from Brad Ekwerekwu that hit me when I re-read the story on Friday:
"As far as what does it look like now and is the program still affected by it, yeah, I think so, but a lot of the cats now, man, they don't know who that dude is. It happened ten years ago, these cats, they don't know Aaron. They may know his high school and they may know that so and so wears number 25 now. But it's just a story now."
"It's just a story now." And that's true. I mean, it's kind of almost become true for me and I was at that workout. I'd talked to Aaron O'Neal. I knew his teammates--still keep in touch with some of them. And it's faded for me. So how many Missouri players know Aaron O'Neal's story today? How many who have become fans in the last 15 years don't even know who he was?
Maybe that's natural. Maybe in some ways it's even good. But AO shouldn't be forgotten. If you were around when it happened, it's a story that should be kept alive and passed on. If people don't know, maybe there's a responsibility to let them know. Rest in peace, Aaron.
2) Along similar lines--and I promise we're going to get to more uplifting, or at least less depressing, things soon--I wanted to highlight a book I read that made me think about a lot of things last week. The book is What Made Maddy Run: The Secret Struggles and Tragic Death of an American Teen by Kate Fagan. There's no real mystery here: The main character dies. Her name is Madison Holleran and she committed suicide early in the second semester of her freshman year at Penn. She was a state track champion and might have been a better soccer player than she was a runner. The book goes deep into the pressures felt by college athletes. These kids were almost all among the best at their sport growing up. And then they get to college and they're one of many. They're trying to balance handling the sport with doing well in school. And now they're all doing it in the age of social media. The line that really hit me said that being on social media "is like comparing your every day life to everyone else's highlight reel."
We all are passionate about our teams. We think winning and losing is of great importance. And we often forget the people we pin our hopes on are human beings themselves. It's worth remembering now and again. The games don't really matter nearly as much as we think they do.
If you don't want to read an entire book, Fagan did an ESPN story on her, which is what led to the book. It's the most watched video in ESPN.com history. You can watch it here.
My son leaves for college in two months, where he'll be swimming and taking classes that are harder than any he's ever taken before. This book gave me a lot of insight into things I should say to him before he leaves.
3) So let's lighten things up a little bit, huh? Let's talk about some college football. We are less than a month away from the start of fall camp and less than two from the start of the season. The league media will make SEC predictions next week at media days in Hoover. But I'm getting a jump on them and handicapping the SEC East today. Here's how I'd pick it if I was voting in Hoover (I'm not because Mitchell Forde is attending for us):
1. Georgia--Yeah, they lost a lot. They've also had the top recruiting class in the country three of the last four years and even if they come back to the pack, I don't think they come all the way back.
2. Florida--They lost quite a bit too. I think they're markedly behind UGA, but I still think they're markedly ahead of the rest of the division.
3. Kentucky--This is the toughest spot to pick. I go with the Wildcats simply because I think they have a little more talent than Missouri and they get the Tigers at home.
4. Missouri--I think this would be a successful season for the Tigers. The first goal of Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri needed to be to establish the Tigers as clearly ahead of Tennessee, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Finish here and he's done that in just two seasons.
5. Tennessee--The Vols pasted Missouri last year, but they didn't do anything else impressive. They've got a new coach with a completely different system. They're really only this high because the other two teams in the division are spectacularly not good.
6. South Carolina--Shane Beamer has a steep hill to climb in Columbia.
7. Vanderbilt--The Commodores were terrible last year. They might be worse this year.
4) The above standings reflect something that I think has been true of a lot of Missouri seasons: The Kentucky game is probably the biggest of the year. There are four "swing games" on the Tigers' schedule. Boston College is one, but that won't impact the league standings. Tennessee and Arkansas are swing games too, but Missouri should be favored in those. The Kentucky game is the swingiest of the swing games. The Tigers and Wildcats have played nine times since Mizzou joined the SEC. Missouri has won four, Kentucky has won five. It just so happened that the Cats' five wins all came in a row, a streak Missouri ended last season.
Last year, Missouri's win over Kentucky was the difference between finishing third in the east (Mizzou was 5-5) and fourth (Kentucky was 4-6). Every single year since Mizzou joined the SEC, the winner of this game has finished higher in the division. Twice they were tied, but Kentucky won a tie-breaker due to the head to head. Three times, the winner finished one game better than the loser so that game determined who was higher. It is the most pivotal game on Missouri's schedule and it is in week two on the road. Before you seriously talk about chasing down Georgia and Florida you need to consistently beat Kentucky. Right now, these are the two programs battling to be the top challenger to the Bulldogs and Gators. If Missouri can win this game this year and next year, they're firmly No. 3 in the East and ready to take their shot at the top two.
5) Let's go a little bit more into the pecking order in the division. I've long maintained your program is as good as your last five years. Yes, you can talk about history, but the kids you're recruiting probably don't remember a whole lot beyond five years ago. Here is the cumulative record of SEC East teams in league games over the last five seasons:
Georgia: 32-9
Florida: 28-14
Kentucky: 21-21
Missouri: 17-25
South Carolina: 17-25
Tennessee: 14-28
Vanderbilt: 8-33
That's the pecking order. Georgia has lost five games against SEC teams in the last five years, but only two in the last four years (they were 3-3 in the East in 2016). Florida has lost eight games in the division in that time frame, with three of them being to Georgia. Right now, Kentucky is the third best program in the East. Missouri is trying to catch the Cats. If the Tigers finish two games better than Kentucky in SEC play this season, the records over the last five years will be identical because the 2016 season where Mizzou went 2-6 will be off the books. Go back to point No. 4. It's the biggest game on the schedule.
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