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1) We're at the off week, which is a natural time to take stock of the bigger picture. Where are things at? The pertinent question here to me is "Has there been progress since last season?" That's not something you can measure solely by the record. Mizzou was 5-5 last year. Would 6-6 have been standing still? Considering the five wins last year were all against SEC teams, would Mizzou have to be at least 4-4 in league play, which would mean 7-5 overall? You can't just assign a number of wins to signal progress. I want to look at it statistically. And I want to take into account just the Power Five opposition. Because there really wasn't a game like North Texas, SEMO or even Central Michigan on the schedule last year other than Vandy and Missouri is going to play Vandy anyway. But you have to include Boston College in the assessment because that's a legitimate viable Power Five team.
So here are some of Mizzou's numbers from last season:
Points/game: 26.7
Points allowed/game: 32.3
First downs/game: 22.2
First downs allowed/game: 21.9
Yards/rush: 3.85
Yards allowed/rush: 4.53
Yards/pass attempt: 7.35
Yards allowed/pass attempt: 7.90
Giveaways/game: 1.4
Takeaways/game: 0.9
Penalties and penalty yards/game: 5.8, 49.9
Here are those same numbers so far this year in four Power Five games:
Points/game: 25
Points allowed/game: 44.3
First downs/game: 21.75
First downs allowed/game: 28.25
Yards/rush: 2.47
Yards allowed/rush: 6.68
Yards/pass attempt: 6.35
Yards allowed/pass attempt: 7.99
Giveaways/game: 1.75
Takeaways/game: 1.0
Penalties and penalty yards/game: 8.25, 74.5
2) So what do those numbers mean? They mean that in every single one of those categories except takeaways, Mizzou has gotten worse. Every one. There is one category in which Missouri is better than a year ago and even that one is as minimal as possible. It is scoring less and giving up more. It is getting about the same amount of first downs, but a little less and giving up more. It is rushing for 1.38 yards less per carry against Power Five teams than a year ago and allowing 2.15 yards more per carry. It is averaging a full yard less per pass attempt and giving up a little more per pass attempt (crazy number here, in Power Five games, Missouri has thrown 181 passes and opponents have thrown only 91. Obviously that's because of the run defense being so awful, but Missouri is legitimately throwing the ball twice as much as its opponent on average and doing so for 1.64 yards less on every single attempt). The Tigers are giving the ball away more and taking it away at a rate just very slightly higher.
You can chalk some of this up to personnel. Missouri lost its best offensive player (Larry Rountree) and maybe its four best defensive players (Nick Bolton, Tyree Gillespie, Joshuah Bledsoe, Tre Williams). But you'd think Missouri would have improved at something. It hasn't. It is worse across the board both offensively and defensively just about any way you want to break it down. I'll admit these numbers are skewed a little bit because it's a smaller sample size and because the A&M and Tennessee games were so incredibly lopsided. Games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt should help some of these numbers. But considering Missouri also has Georgia left (not to mention Florida and Arkansas, which are on par or better with Tennessee and Boston College), I wouldn't expect these numbers to change greatly by the end of the season unless Mizzou gets a whole lot better in the 12 days before it plays again. The numbers are fairly alarming.
3) So given all that, can this season still be successful? I say not really. I said before the season 7-5 was my baseline for success. Missouri isn't getting to 7-5. I said before the season that 6-6 would be disappointing, but not disastrous. I guess that's still true. If you can beat Vandy and South Carolina (neither one is a given) and rally the troops to beat Arkansas and get to a minor bowl game, it's not a disaster. But it's still short of what you'd like to have seen. It is, at best, treading water from last year and if you dig further into the quality of play and not just the surface level "what was the record?" I think this is going to end up as an objectively worse team than last season. That doesn't mean the season is a total loss or the program is headed for the trash heap or anything else. It just means they got worse from 2020 to 2021.
4) So what's your major reason for hope? It's the recruiting trail. Missouri currently has 14 commitments. Six of them are four-stars, none of them are below a 5.6 RR. The only candidate for a defection right now appears to be offensive lineman Armand Membou. We'd still handicap Missouri as the favorite there, but Iowa is a factor and Missouri has to avoid a total collapse down the stretch. There is going to be--at least going by recruiting rankings and stars--more talent on next year's roster than there was on this year's roster, or last year's for that matter. The 2021 class is going to have a full year under its belt and you would expect some of those players to have a significantly bigger role (BJ Harris, Dominic Lovett, Mookie Cooper, DJ Jackson, Kyran Montgomery, Connor Tollison, Arden Walker, Travion Ford, maybe a quarterback). The 2022 class is going to be on campus and some of them are going to be immediate contributors (I'd look at Xavier Simmons, Marquis Gracial, Mekhi Miller and Jamarion Wayne, maybe Sam Horn). There's going to be more roster turnover next year than maybe any other season. As long as that aspect continues to go as well as it's been going, there's a lot of reason to be optimistic for the future. Obviously that's going to have to turn into results on the field and it's going to have to start turning into results next season. Missouri needs to be above .500 next year. Period. Eli Drinkwitz isn't going to get fired if they aren't, but you're definitely going to have some significant questions if we're looking at 5-7, 6-6 again next year. Bare minimum next season to me is 7-5 for you to feel good about where things are going. Bare minimum.
5) Let's get to the recruiting story you guys all want to know about now. Luther Burden is scheduled to make his announcement tomorrow night at 6 p.m. at the Herbert Hoover Boys & Girls Club. Burden is fresh off his Georgia visit. The question is whether Burden had his mind made up before that trip and if that trip changed it. I don't know the answer to that. Burden was quoted as saying the visit was impressive (duh) and it was so close he might make the decision when he sits down at the table tomorrow. I don't believe that. If he doesn't know where he's going by tomorrow, I can't see him sitting down and deciding on a whim. He's already decommitted once and he's unlikely to do it again. He's kept things pretty quiet throughout this process and really hasn't created much drama about it. I don't think he's a kid who's doing this for the spotlight. Hopefully we're 32 hours from knowing how it shakes out. But if it's really that close, I actually don't think it would be the worst thing for Missouri if he delayed the announcement. The fact he hasn't taken an official visit to Mizzou isn't an accident. Missouri is holding on to that for one of two situations: 1) To be able to bring him in as a committed kid and help recruit other prospects as part of the class. 2) To use it as a final pitch to land him. So if he were to say he's not ready to make a choice tomorrow, Mizzou would still have an official visit and Georgia wouldn't. That could only help. That said, for my sanity and yours, I'd just as soon he is ready to decide tomorrow.
