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Last week, we wrapped up ten thoughts on 2021 for Mizzou. This week, we'll look ahead to 2022. A couple of newsy type things and then the rest of this feature will focus on what we're watching over the next 12 months.
1) Mizzou got its biggest portal prize yet on Sunday. Oklahoma State defensive tackle Jayden Jernigan committed to Mizzou. I know a couple of people who cover OSU and both told me this is definitely not a situation where Jernigan was encouraged to look around. Mike Gundy would very much have liked to keep him. Why did he leave? We don't know. He hasn't done any interviews since entering the portal and didn't respond to multiple messages from us last night. So I have no idea. I'm going to go with, this is what college football is right now. Even players who are playing and ostensibly relatively happy are looking for a place they can be happier. If you're a Missouri fan, I wouldn't even worry about why he left. Just be happy he did and Missouri got a good player at a position of need. I think Jernigan immediately enters the picture to start next season. He's in the top three tackles with Darius Robinson and Mekhi Wingo. Throw in Realus George, Marquis Gracial and potentially Kyran Montgomery (who sure looked to me like a guy who could grow into defensive tackle) and the Tigers might have a pretty solid group there.
2) I really try to be wary of overhyping kids who haven't played a down of college football. I think it's unfair to them. And I think some of the stuff being put on Luther Burden is a little bit unfair. It reminds me of what happened with Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert had a really good college career. But because he was a five-star quarterback coming to a place that didn't really get five-star quarterbacks, I think a good amount of Mizzou fans view his college career as a disappointment. That's too bad because Gabbert accounted for 7200 yards and 48 touchdowns and went 18-8 in two years as a starter and then was a top ten NFL Draft pick. That's a career every single quarterback coming out of high school would sign up for. And somehow it wasn't what some people expected.
That's all a prelude to say that I'm hesitant to put too much on Luther Burden. But every single time you watch him play, he makes you think that it's all possible. I went to the season opener last year and the first time he touched the ball he returned a punt 85 yards for a touchdown. More of his touches in that game (against an eventual state champion) ended with him in the end zone than ended with him getting tackled. Then he went out to St. John Bosco and down to IMG and stood out as one of the best--if not the very best--player on the field. And then at the Under Armour all-American game yesterday he did this the first time he touched the ball:
And he did this too
These are plays made against the best high school players in the country. I'm not going to throw out certain numbers, but the hype for Burden is justified. I just hope people don't freak out if he doesn't score the first time he touches the ball next September. Also, I wouldn't necessarily bet against it happening.
3) Okay, so let's get on to 2022. The next few thoughts are stories I'm watching over the next calendar year at Mizzou. Let's stick with football to start. The first thing is obviously how do the Tigers finish out this class? They're very obviously still looking for a linebacker in the transfer portal. They'll also take a tight end. That could be it. Those are the only two things I'm pretty confident they'll take. I'm not saying a running back or a quarterback or another defensive back are impossible things, but tight end and linebacker are the only things I'm sure about. The transfers are all being used to plug immediate holes on the roster and the incoming recruiting class is either going to be the best or second-best in school history by the rankings in all likelihood. So what's the reasonable expectation? The minimum I think Missouri should be happy with is seven wins. It's tangible progress. It's a winning record. The schedule is challenging, but not any more than this year's was. You get Kentucky and Arkansas at home, you have three gimmies in the non-conference. If you're making the progress you should be making, a win at Kansas State shouldn't come as a shock and you trade Texas A&M for Auburn out of the West. Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida aren't easy road games, but none are impossible either. Throw Vandy in with the three non-cons and there are four games you can't lose. Georgia is one you write off as a very likely loss. That leaves seven swing games (Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas State). Win three of them and you've got seven wins. If this program is going where people want it to go, I don't think asking for a 3-4 record in those games is too much. Honestly, if it's going where people want it to go, I think you should probably win four of those.
4) The major determining factor in that is going to be quarterback play. The quarterback always gets too much credit and too much blame, but it is the most important single position in sports outside of maybe a hockey goalie and a starting pitcher. I don't think Eli Drinkwitz will name a starting quarterback until August 30, which is the Tuesday before the Middle Tennessee State game. And I'm not sure he'll even name one then. First, we have to see who all is on campus. Do Brady Cook and Tyler Macon both stay until next season? Has a transfer come in? How ready is Sam Horn? I have no idea who they'll start at quarterback. I'll just say the same thing I've said for months now: Whoever Drinkwitz picks, he has to be right. If he gets quarterback wrong next year, it could end up being the thing we point to that started his demise at Mizzou. Yes, it's that important.
5) I hate that it's true, but there's only one story to follow in basketball. Who's going to be coaching the team next November? What's good enough to keep Cuonzo Martin around for another season? I know some have already made up their minds that nothing is good enough, but I just don't think that's reality. No decision has been made and nothing is in motion as of now. The Tigers are 6-7. I think they'll beat Georgia and Texas A&M at home, but I can't say I go into any other game with much confidence. That's not to say I think they're going to only win eight games. I think the odds are they probably win a few more than that. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say they get to 10 or 11 by the end of it. Is that enough to try it for one more year? Even if it is, it kind of feels like just delaying the inevitable. I haven't started putting together a hot board. I'm going to at least get to February before I do that. The name that Missouri fans are going to want to see is Kim English. He'd be on my board if I put one together. I don't think he's ready. But that's not to say I wouldn't hire him. I might. We're going to have plenty of time to talk about this and I don't even know if it's a discussion we'll need to be having in two or three months, but if it is, we'll be ready for it at that time.
