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We're back after a week off. This is the time of year where we're going to go a little more big picture and cast a wide net. The truth is, other than a couple of track athletes headed to nationals, there's not a whole lot going on around Mizzou right now. So to get to ten thoughts, you might have to allow me some freedom of thought.
1) The only Mizzou athletes still in action are Mara Hausler and Arianna Fisher, who are headed for NCAA Track nationals in Oregon in a little more than a week. From the school's official release:
Finishing fifth, Mara Häusler matched her personal best in the triple jump with a leap of 13.56m / 44-6. Arianna Fisher finished tied for seventh with a season-best mark of 13.42m / 44-0.5. Häusler will compete in the NCAA meet for the second time in her career, both outdoors, while Fisher is now a four-time national qualifier (twice outdoors).
Speaking of the track, a familiar name to Mizzou fans is up to her old tricks.
2) We are now in camp/recruiting season for the next six weeks. Eli Drinkwitz and his contingent will hit SEC Media Days on July 18, but between now and then, the vast majority of our coverage is recruiting related.
Mitchell Forde has been at the EYBL stop in Louisville, KY the last two days. Here's his latest.
I'll be at the first football prospect camp this Thursday afternoon. There will be three more of those, plus a 7-on-7 event over the next two weeks. On the hoops side, EYBL will hit Kansas City in early July. We will be in attendance there as well. While the current Tigers hit campus for workouts and such, the main focus for us will be on the future.
3) Speaking of the future, the 2022 football season speculation is really starting to ramp up. The over/under for Mizzou has been set at 5.5 wins.
I'll just say up front, if they don't hit the over, it's a disappointment. Without question. Year three shouldn't be a losing record. Year three is when you start to get an indication of where things are going. Gary Pinkel's third year was 8-5 and the first bowl game in five years. Barry Odom's third season was 8-5 and the second straight bowl game. Both teams finished .500 in the conference. Both were in the top 25 for a time. Maybe this year doesn't have to be eight wins and an appearance in the top 25...but it can't be 5-7. Not if you're going to convince anyone they should be excited about where this thing is going and buy tickets.
4) So if Missouri's going to get to seven or more wins, how are they doing it? First of all, let's rank the schedule a couple of different ways. First, let's go in order of difficulty. We'll start with the toughest game and go down to the easiest:
Georgia
@Tennessee
@Florida
Arkansas
Kentucky
@Auburn
@Kansas State
@South Carolina
Louisiana Tech
Vanderbilt
New Mexico State
Abilene Christian
The bottom four of those are must wins. The top one is a near certain loss. The other seven are what will determine whether Mizzou is 4-8 (the absolute floor IMO) or 10-2 (the absolute ceiling). So let's assume the bottom four are wins and the Georgia game is a loss. Now I'll rank the seven "swing games" in order of importance with a short explanation for why I put the game where I did on the list. Win three of the following and you're at seven wins, which is my barometer for a successful regular season:
@Auburn--First conference game. Winnable road game. Would have some name recognition, even though most don't expect this to be a real good Auburn team. Would have some early season momentum
@Kansas State--Chance for a Power Five road win early on to get fans excited. One of the problems of the last few years hasn't just been the overall record, but the record in the first half of the season. Since 2015, the only year in which Mizzou had a winning record through the first six games of the season was 2019...and that included a week one loss at Wyoming. The Tigers have largely murdered excitement before it had a chance to even start. Lose both of these and the same thing will happen.
@South Carolina--This is the first program Missouri must establish itself ahead of if its going to move up the SEC pecking order. Mizzou has beaten the Gamecocks three straight times.
Kentucky--Wildcats are up next in the "need to catch this team to show you're making progress" category. They're also expected to be pretty good, though maybe not quite as good as last year.
Arkansas--Many will probably think this should be higher. Maybe it should be. Down the road, it probably will be. But for now, it's a cross-division game and I have a hard time putting it ahead of South Carolina or Kentucky because I also think it is less likely Missouri wins this one than South Carolina or Kentucky.
@Florida and @Tennessee--I just group these together because they're tough to separate for me. Florida is probably a little more winnable at this point in time. But one of the two would signal a season that nears best-case scenario
5) We'll get into our position and roster previews in the coming weeks, but I just want to do a quick analysis of 2022 compared to 2021. This is a simple exercise. At each position, I'll tell you whether I think Missouri is better, worse or the same this year than it was last year:
QB--Worse for now. It could very well end up better, but it isn't yet
RB--Worse almost without question. It's the most replaceable position in football, but for now it's worse.
TE--Worse for sure
OL--Same. I don't think it's a glaring weakness, but it's not a strength either
WR--Better almost without question
DE--Better. Mizzou didn't lose an impact player here
DT--Same. Yes, you lose Akial Byers, Kobie Whiteside and Mekhi Wingo. Two of those three were disappointing last year and WIngo is replaced by Jayden Jernigan. I think there's the potential to be better but for now it's the same.
LB--Better. Ty'Ron Hopper is an upgrade over Blaze Alldredge.
CB--Worse for now. Allie Green and Akayleb Evans are gone, but Ennis Rakestraw is healthy and we're going to get a look at some of the young guys. Like QB, I think it can be better, but it isn't yet.
S--Better. You bring back the starters from last year, add Joseph Charleston.
PK--Same
P--Worse. We don't even know who the punter is.
Return Games--Better. I want to see Luther Burden back there.
Offense: 1 better, 1 same, 3 worse
Defense: 3 better, 1 same, 1 worse
Special teams: 1 better, 1 worse, 1 same
Total: 5 better, 3 same, 5 worse
Will the Tigers take a step forward? Maybe. But looking at this, it's all based on potential and development. Time to see some production to match the hype.
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