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1) So it was a...not great week in Mizzou football recruiting. If you're reading this you probably know, but in case you don't, Cayden Green and PJ Adebawore both committed to Oklahoma, Chandavian Bradley is headed to Tennessee, Samuel M'Pemba released a top seven that didn't include Mizzou and the tea leaves aren't looking favorable on Miles McVay. Even for Mizzou fans, that's a lot of bad news to process in a single week. So you know the news, but we're here to talk about what it means.
First off, what it means is that we'd forecast Missouri getting one of the top five in the state and either two or three of the top ten. The Tigers have a commitment from Brett Norfleet, we feel they're in the driver's seat for Logan Reichert and Marvin Burks took an official visit and is a maybe. This isn't a situation where Mizzou and Rivals disagree on the top ten. The Tigers have offered all ten. In the rest of the top 25, there are three players who we believe have (or had at the time of their commitment) a committable offer from Missouri: Josh Manning, Jahkai Lang and Jamal Roberts. So looking at it that way, the Tigers have offered 13 in-state players (that they'd take) and should end up with four to six of them. It's not great, but not terrible, between a 27% and a 46% hit rate. Would you like to have a higher rate? Sure. But when you're competing against the level of schools Mizzou is competing against for these kids, anything over 50% would be absolutely phenomenal.
2) Let's compare it to how Mizzou has done in state over the last five years. These are our beliefs in terms of the committable offers based on the information we had. It may not be perfect, but it's close
2022: 3 of the top 5 (all had offers), 4 of the top 10 (7 had committable offers), 7 out of 10 committable offers
2021: 1 of the top 5 (4 had committable offers), 4 of the top 10 (8 committable), 6 out of 10 committable offers
2020: 0 of the top 5 (4 committable), 1 of the top 10 (8 committable), 5 out of 13 committable offers
2019: 2 of the top 5 (all committablle), 3 of the top 10 (9 committable), 6 out of 16 committable offers
2018: 0 of the top 5 (all committable), 1 of the top 10 (7 committable), 1 out of 7 committable offers
So if we go by percentage (let's say Mizzou goes 2/3 on Reichert, Manning and Burks), that's 38% hit rate on committable in-state offers), it would be tied for 3rd out of the 6 classes. The only class that is significantly worse is 2018 at just 12.5%. Both 2021 and 2022 are significantly better at 60% and 70%. So the upshot is this is trending to be the worst in-state closing rate Eli Drinkwitz has had in three years, but on par or better than each of the three years that had preceded his tenure.
That backs up where I stand on this class: It's okay to have some concerns and to think this class is falling short of what you would hope. That does not mean you think the sky is falling, Missouri is doomed and Drinkwitz is on the hot seat. The Internet has no room for middle ground, but middle ground is the reasonable position here. Saying that this class is a bit disappointing so far should not get you labeled as a hater. It's reality.
3) So why has the in-state hit rate gone down this year? That's the important question. I believe there are a couple of reasons.
First of all, the competition is better. The players Mizzou would have taken and missed in 2022 (you can debate Kevin Coleman, but there was a time his offer was committable certainly) went to Jackson State, Notre Dame and Baylor. In 2021, it was Ohio State, Notre Dame, Iowa and Auburn. So the competition for the guys they missed was stiff there, but the competition for the ones they got was significantly less than that. So far this year, Missouri has lost guys to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and LSU with Texas A&M and Alabama potentially being added to the list. That's a different pool you're swimming in.
Second, the first two years of the Drinkwitz era gave Mizzou fans something they hadn't had this century: The new coach bump. Gary Pinkel's first year was 2000, but that was pre-current-Rivals era. Barry Odom took over in 2015 when non-football events negated any bump any new coach was going to get. At that point, Missouri was trying to survive on the recruiting trail rather than thrive. Drinkwitz came in and the 2021 and 2022 classes reflected what often happens when there's a new coach who brings hope and excitement: Recruiting got better. Now, it's going to be about what's done on the field. And so far on the field, Missouri has been the definition of mediocre. Again, that's not saying Drinkwitz sucks or can't coach. It's simply saying that once you get three years in with a new coach, he isn't new anymore. The idea of "They aren't good now, but if they get enough guys like me they're going to be good" doesn't carry as much weight. The results have to start showing up. This season. Which is why I remain insistent that if this thing is going to go in the right direction--and the direction most have believed it was going for the last two years--Drinkwitz needs to win at least seven games in the regular season.
In other words, we've moved from the blind faith era to the era where you need to see some proof to believe.
4) As of today, Mizzou sits 68th in the team rankings. That matters some, but not a ton. I don't much care about team rankings in mid-July. There are teams all the time that sit in the 50s and 60s, but add a lot of commitments later because they're recruiting a lot of highly ranked players who are contested and have a lot of options. How many of those guys Mizzou is in on and can land is what will determine where this class ultimately ends up. If they can find another three or four four-star players, they'll still be up in the 25ish range at the end, which is the only time that team rankings actually matter. To me, the goal is absolutely top 30. You have to recruit in the top 30 annually if you're going to meet expectations (I think Missouri fans' hopes are to have a fairly regular eight-win program). In 2022, 13 current SEC teams (and 15 of the eventual 16) ranked in the top 30. Vanderbilt had the No. 35 class in the country...and the worst in the SEC. 2021 was a down year for the SEC. Only ten current teams (12 when you add Oklahoma and Texas) were in the top 30. Basically, recruiting top 30 classes means you're keeping pace with the bottom half of the league. If you want to win divisions and contend for titles, you better get into that top 10-20 range every single year. That's obviously eventually the goal. But for now, Missouri needs to establish itself as even down years are in the top 30. No more of the 40th, 45th or 50th ranked recruiting classes. The floor needs to be 30. Once that's established, you can reassess.
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