1) Missouri's most recent basketball game was a 63-52 loss to Mississippi State. It wasn't just the fewest points Missouri has scored this season. It was 12 fewer than it has scored in any other game all year. The Tigers shot 32% from the field, the lowest mark of the year (32.9% vs Alabama was the previous worst). They made five fewer shots than they had made in any other game (16; 21 was their previous worst in the loss at Arkansas). The 50 field goals Missouri attempted was the second-lowest total of the year (46 in a 68-66 win over UCF). The possessions were limited in large part due to 15 turnovers, the third-most they've had this year (21 vs Kansas, 16 vs Lindenwood). So was it a bad day at the office or a sign that this team isn't as good as you'd hoped? I lean toward the former. We'll go into a few reasons why.
2) There is no sport in which it is harder to win on the road than college basketball. Missouri is 2-4 on the road this season (that doesn't count wins over UCF and Illinois which were neutral site games). At first glance, you think that's not very good. But you have to compare it to everyone else. The combined road record of SEC teams this year is 36-58. Alabama is 7-1 on the road. Tennessee is 4-2. Those are the top two teams in the league standings. The combined road record of the other 12 teams in the league is 25-55. Texas A&M (4-3) is the only other team with a winning record on the road. Missouri's win percentage in road games is actually percentage points higher than the overall road record of the bottom 12 teams in the SEC. Here's the combined road record of the other high major conferences:
ACC: 40-69
Big 12: 26-41
Big East: 34-57
Big Ten: 35-74
PAC 12: 28-62
Total: 199-361 (combined with the SEC)
That's a winning percentage of .355. Missouri's is .333. That's right on par with every other high major conference. Yes, there are some that are better. The six leagues have a combined 17 teams with a winning record on the road. Out of 76 teams. So 22.4% of high major teams have a winning record on the road. Missouri has four road games remaining. It is going to be a decided underdog at Tennessee and Auburn. It will be a slight favorite or slight underdog at LSU and Georgia. If Missouri can go 2-2 in the four road games, it will finish the year 4-6 on the road. That's not bad. It's not great, but it's not bad.
3) The main difference in Missouri at home and on the road? Shooting.
Missouri averages right about 61 field goal attempts per game. In six road games, it is averaging 20.9 made field goals per game, 7.5 made three-pointers and and 13.3 free throws. At home, those numbers are 29.7 fielld goals, 9.7 threes and 15.1 free throws. That's nine shots per game with two of them being threes, plus two free throws. That adds up to 22 points per game difference between home games and road/neutral games (and those numbers are boosted by an 89-point, 16/30 from three game at Ole Miss and a 93-point, 53.9% from the floor game against Illinois).
4) It's no secret the magic number for Missouri is 70. The Tigers have been held under 70 points seven times this year. They are 1-6 in those games with the win coming on a banked three-pointer at the buzzer by DeAndre Gholston against UCF. When Mizzou has gotten to 70, it is 16-0. There's not really much analysis needed. When the Tigers score 70, it's always enough to win. Even though the Tigers' opponents are averaging 74.8 points per game, if the game is high-scoring enough for Missouri to get to 70, Missouri wins.
5) So what is the NCAA Tournament outlook? Before losing to Mississippi State, Missouri was generally regarded as a 7 seed. BracketMatrix tracks 93 bracket projections across the country. Missouri was in every single one. The average of those 93 projections was 7.84. So let's assume the Mississippi State game knocks that down to probably an 8 seed as of today with eight regular season games and the SEC Tournament to go.
Missouri is safely in right now. If it goes 4-4 the rest of the way, it will finish 21-10, 9-9 in league play. If they can avoid stubbing their toe in the first round of the SEC Tournament, they should be safely in the field come Selection Sunday. Here's how the rest of the games break down in terms of quadrants:
Q1 games: at Tennessee, at Auburn
Q2 games: vs Texas A&M, vs Mississippi State, at Georgia
Q3 games: at LSU, vs Ole Miss
Q4 games: vs South Carollina
Missouri has to beat Ole Miss and South Carolina at home. It would be a good thing to win at LSU to avoid a Q3 loss. Then win one of the other five. Losing at LSU wouldn't be a death knell or anything, but it would mean you probably have to win two of the other five and it might cost you a seed line.
2) There is no sport in which it is harder to win on the road than college basketball. Missouri is 2-4 on the road this season (that doesn't count wins over UCF and Illinois which were neutral site games). At first glance, you think that's not very good. But you have to compare it to everyone else. The combined road record of SEC teams this year is 36-58. Alabama is 7-1 on the road. Tennessee is 4-2. Those are the top two teams in the league standings. The combined road record of the other 12 teams in the league is 25-55. Texas A&M (4-3) is the only other team with a winning record on the road. Missouri's win percentage in road games is actually percentage points higher than the overall road record of the bottom 12 teams in the SEC. Here's the combined road record of the other high major conferences:
ACC: 40-69
Big 12: 26-41
Big East: 34-57
Big Ten: 35-74
PAC 12: 28-62
Total: 199-361 (combined with the SEC)
That's a winning percentage of .355. Missouri's is .333. That's right on par with every other high major conference. Yes, there are some that are better. The six leagues have a combined 17 teams with a winning record on the road. Out of 76 teams. So 22.4% of high major teams have a winning record on the road. Missouri has four road games remaining. It is going to be a decided underdog at Tennessee and Auburn. It will be a slight favorite or slight underdog at LSU and Georgia. If Missouri can go 2-2 in the four road games, it will finish the year 4-6 on the road. That's not bad. It's not great, but it's not bad.
3) The main difference in Missouri at home and on the road? Shooting.
Missouri averages right about 61 field goal attempts per game. In six road games, it is averaging 20.9 made field goals per game, 7.5 made three-pointers and and 13.3 free throws. At home, those numbers are 29.7 fielld goals, 9.7 threes and 15.1 free throws. That's nine shots per game with two of them being threes, plus two free throws. That adds up to 22 points per game difference between home games and road/neutral games (and those numbers are boosted by an 89-point, 16/30 from three game at Ole Miss and a 93-point, 53.9% from the floor game against Illinois).
4) It's no secret the magic number for Missouri is 70. The Tigers have been held under 70 points seven times this year. They are 1-6 in those games with the win coming on a banked three-pointer at the buzzer by DeAndre Gholston against UCF. When Mizzou has gotten to 70, it is 16-0. There's not really much analysis needed. When the Tigers score 70, it's always enough to win. Even though the Tigers' opponents are averaging 74.8 points per game, if the game is high-scoring enough for Missouri to get to 70, Missouri wins.
5) So what is the NCAA Tournament outlook? Before losing to Mississippi State, Missouri was generally regarded as a 7 seed. BracketMatrix tracks 93 bracket projections across the country. Missouri was in every single one. The average of those 93 projections was 7.84. So let's assume the Mississippi State game knocks that down to probably an 8 seed as of today with eight regular season games and the SEC Tournament to go.
Missouri is safely in right now. If it goes 4-4 the rest of the way, it will finish 21-10, 9-9 in league play. If they can avoid stubbing their toe in the first round of the SEC Tournament, they should be safely in the field come Selection Sunday. Here's how the rest of the games break down in terms of quadrants:
Q1 games: at Tennessee, at Auburn
Q2 games: vs Texas A&M, vs Mississippi State, at Georgia
Q3 games: at LSU, vs Ole Miss
Q4 games: vs South Carollina
Missouri has to beat Ole Miss and South Carolina at home. It would be a good thing to win at LSU to avoid a Q3 loss. Then win one of the other five. Losing at LSU wouldn't be a death knell or anything, but it would mean you probably have to win two of the other five and it might cost you a seed line.
