At the risk of burying the lede, I'll save Sam Horn's inevitable callup to the Major Leagues for later in the Thoughts. But there's plenty going on so let's get to it.
1) Missouri's loss to Texas A&M was disappointing, but doesn't have to be anything worse than that. The more I think about it, the more I think most of us have failed to give the Aggies enough credit. It's one of those "We should never lose to Texas A&M in basketball" type things. We don't expect A&M to be good in basketball because it usually isn't all that good. But the Aggies are good. And more than anything, they're tough. They play a style that gives Missouri trouble. The Tigers need to shoot the ball well to win. The Aggies don't. In the two games this year, they've been able to enforce their will and their pace on Missouri. And it happened again on Saturday night. I'm willing to write Saturday off to a bad matchup against a team that more of us (myself included) should have seen as a bad matchup. I'm also willing ratchet up the concern a level in about 36 hours. The next game is against Mississippi State, which I'd term as Texas A&M Lite. They aren't as good as the Aggies and they don't have as much talent. But they play a similar style and if they can force Missouri to play that style, the Tigers haven't proven they can win.
2) A couple of weeks ago, Dennis Gates said Kobe Brown can't have a bad day. The numbers bear that out. Brown has played in 26 of Missouri's 27 games. He sat out the loss to Alabama. He has scored in double figures in 20 of the 26. But five of the six in which he was held under ten were non-conference games. Since Braggin' Rights, the only time Brown hasn't had at least ten points was in the loss to Auburn. In 15 games since December 17, Brown is averaging 19 points per game.
In Missouri's nine wins: 22.2 points, 7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2 steals in 33.2 minutes per game
In Missouri's six losses (plus one DNP): 14.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals in 29.5 minutes per game
Brown was great against A&M on Saturday. He had 24 points, 6 rebounds and 3 steals. Take that game away and in the other five conference losses in which he has played he is averaging 12.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.2 steals. So there's definitely a direct correlation: When Brown's production dips, Missouri loses. He's had 20 points in two of the six losses (Florida and the home game against A&M), but is averaging just 10.5 in the other four.
3) But it's not all Brown. When this team is good, he's had some help. When it isn't, he hasn't. Here are the other two scorers in Missouri's conference losses with Kobe on the floor:
at Arkansas: Sean East 13, Nick Honor 12
at Texas A&M: D'Moi Hodge 10, DeAndre Gholston 10
at Florida: Noah Carter 12, Tre Gomillion 11
at Mississippi State: Gholston 12, Hodge 11
at Auburn: East 14, Gholston 10
vs Texas A&M: Hodge 12, Gholston 7
In six losses, nobody other than Kobe has scored more than 14 points.
In the nine wins in that span, Missouri has had 13 players other than Kobe score at least 15 points in a game and had 25 players other than Kobe in double figures. That's an average of nearly three players per game other than Kobe scoring in double figures. In the six losses, they've averaged fewer than two per game in double figures. So, yes, it's about Kobe, but it's also about Kobe getting some help. Six different players have been in double figures in the losses, but none has done it more than three times and none has scored more than 14.
4) What you really want to know is what this does to the tournament chances. As of now, Missouri is still in if it takes care of business. The bracketologists mostly haven't updated since the loss to A&M, but everybody would still have Missouri in as of today. The Tigers have four regular season games left. I'm approaching this as what do they have to do to be in the dance regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament? My opinion is 3-1.
Mississippi State is 42nd in the NET. That would be a solid Quad 2 win. Georgia is currently at 131, so that would be a Quad 2 win on the road for now, but the Bulldogs could slip to a Quad 3 game. Ole Miss is 129, so that's Quad 3 game at home. LSU is at 158 so that's a Quad 3 game as well. Those last two aren't going to change quadrants. I'll just run through the scenarios in my opinion:
4-0: Mizzou is in, probably as an 8 seed, but could potentially move up a spot or two with a run in the SEC Tournament
3-1: Mizzou is in, probably on the 8-9 line, but potentially slipping to 10
2-2: Missouri is in danger. They could be in, but would be nervous depending on what happens in other conference tournaments and would really be leaving themselves at the mercy of the committee.
1-3 or 0-4: Hello, NIT
Here are the teams right around Mizzou's range in seeding that you'll want to keep an eye on the next couple of weeks: Maryland, Iowa, Providence, Michigan State, Duke, Auburn, Rutgers, Arkansas, NC State, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Pitt, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Boise State, Kentucky
5) How about the SEC seedings? These are less important, but a top four spot still isn't out of the question for Mizzou because of the remaining schedules. The Tigers cannot lose again if they want to get in the top four. If they were to go 4-0, they're 11-7 in the league.
Bama and A&M have the top two spots locked up. The good news for Missouri is that they own tiebreakers against Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The fact they've beaten the teams that currently sit third, fourth and fifth is also going to give them the tiebreaker in a lot of multi-team ties (basically, after round-robin records, the tiebreaker becomes how did you do against the first place team, then on down in order).
After the top two, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, Auburn, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State could still finish in virtually any order. That's nine teams. Someone in that group is finishing third, but someone is also finishing 11th. Here are the remaining schedules for the rest of those teams:
Kentucky: at Florida, vs Auburn, vs Vandy, at Arkansas
Tennessee: at A&M, vs South Carolina, vs Arkansas, at Auburn
Vandy: at LSU, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Mississippi State
Auburn: vs Ole Miss, at Kentucky, at Alabama, vs Tennessee
Mizzou: vs Mississippi State, at Georgia, at LSU, vs Ole Miss
Florida: vs Kentucky, at Vandy, at Georgia, vs LSU
Arkansas: vs Georgia, at Alabama, at Tennessee, vs Kentucky
Georgia: at Arkansas, vs Missouri, vs Florida, at South Carolina
Mississippi State: at Missouri, vs A&M, vs South Carolina, at Vandy
Missouri and Georgia are the only two teams that don't have a game left against anyone with a winning record in the league. Missouri's two remaining road games are probably easier as a duo than any other team's two remaining road games. I'm not predicting Missouri will go 4-0 in the last four. But if it does, I still think there's an excellent shot they get the 4 seed. If the Tigers lose one, they'll play on Thursday in the league tournament almost for sure.
1) Missouri's loss to Texas A&M was disappointing, but doesn't have to be anything worse than that. The more I think about it, the more I think most of us have failed to give the Aggies enough credit. It's one of those "We should never lose to Texas A&M in basketball" type things. We don't expect A&M to be good in basketball because it usually isn't all that good. But the Aggies are good. And more than anything, they're tough. They play a style that gives Missouri trouble. The Tigers need to shoot the ball well to win. The Aggies don't. In the two games this year, they've been able to enforce their will and their pace on Missouri. And it happened again on Saturday night. I'm willing to write Saturday off to a bad matchup against a team that more of us (myself included) should have seen as a bad matchup. I'm also willing ratchet up the concern a level in about 36 hours. The next game is against Mississippi State, which I'd term as Texas A&M Lite. They aren't as good as the Aggies and they don't have as much talent. But they play a similar style and if they can force Missouri to play that style, the Tigers haven't proven they can win.
2) A couple of weeks ago, Dennis Gates said Kobe Brown can't have a bad day. The numbers bear that out. Brown has played in 26 of Missouri's 27 games. He sat out the loss to Alabama. He has scored in double figures in 20 of the 26. But five of the six in which he was held under ten were non-conference games. Since Braggin' Rights, the only time Brown hasn't had at least ten points was in the loss to Auburn. In 15 games since December 17, Brown is averaging 19 points per game.
In Missouri's nine wins: 22.2 points, 7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2 steals in 33.2 minutes per game
In Missouri's six losses (plus one DNP): 14.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals in 29.5 minutes per game
Brown was great against A&M on Saturday. He had 24 points, 6 rebounds and 3 steals. Take that game away and in the other five conference losses in which he has played he is averaging 12.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.2 steals. So there's definitely a direct correlation: When Brown's production dips, Missouri loses. He's had 20 points in two of the six losses (Florida and the home game against A&M), but is averaging just 10.5 in the other four.
3) But it's not all Brown. When this team is good, he's had some help. When it isn't, he hasn't. Here are the other two scorers in Missouri's conference losses with Kobe on the floor:
at Arkansas: Sean East 13, Nick Honor 12
at Texas A&M: D'Moi Hodge 10, DeAndre Gholston 10
at Florida: Noah Carter 12, Tre Gomillion 11
at Mississippi State: Gholston 12, Hodge 11
at Auburn: East 14, Gholston 10
vs Texas A&M: Hodge 12, Gholston 7
In six losses, nobody other than Kobe has scored more than 14 points.
In the nine wins in that span, Missouri has had 13 players other than Kobe score at least 15 points in a game and had 25 players other than Kobe in double figures. That's an average of nearly three players per game other than Kobe scoring in double figures. In the six losses, they've averaged fewer than two per game in double figures. So, yes, it's about Kobe, but it's also about Kobe getting some help. Six different players have been in double figures in the losses, but none has done it more than three times and none has scored more than 14.
4) What you really want to know is what this does to the tournament chances. As of now, Missouri is still in if it takes care of business. The bracketologists mostly haven't updated since the loss to A&M, but everybody would still have Missouri in as of today. The Tigers have four regular season games left. I'm approaching this as what do they have to do to be in the dance regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament? My opinion is 3-1.
Mississippi State is 42nd in the NET. That would be a solid Quad 2 win. Georgia is currently at 131, so that would be a Quad 2 win on the road for now, but the Bulldogs could slip to a Quad 3 game. Ole Miss is 129, so that's Quad 3 game at home. LSU is at 158 so that's a Quad 3 game as well. Those last two aren't going to change quadrants. I'll just run through the scenarios in my opinion:
4-0: Mizzou is in, probably as an 8 seed, but could potentially move up a spot or two with a run in the SEC Tournament
3-1: Mizzou is in, probably on the 8-9 line, but potentially slipping to 10
2-2: Missouri is in danger. They could be in, but would be nervous depending on what happens in other conference tournaments and would really be leaving themselves at the mercy of the committee.
1-3 or 0-4: Hello, NIT
Here are the teams right around Mizzou's range in seeding that you'll want to keep an eye on the next couple of weeks: Maryland, Iowa, Providence, Michigan State, Duke, Auburn, Rutgers, Arkansas, NC State, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Pitt, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Boise State, Kentucky
5) How about the SEC seedings? These are less important, but a top four spot still isn't out of the question for Mizzou because of the remaining schedules. The Tigers cannot lose again if they want to get in the top four. If they were to go 4-0, they're 11-7 in the league.
Bama and A&M have the top two spots locked up. The good news for Missouri is that they own tiebreakers against Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The fact they've beaten the teams that currently sit third, fourth and fifth is also going to give them the tiebreaker in a lot of multi-team ties (basically, after round-robin records, the tiebreaker becomes how did you do against the first place team, then on down in order).
After the top two, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, Auburn, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State could still finish in virtually any order. That's nine teams. Someone in that group is finishing third, but someone is also finishing 11th. Here are the remaining schedules for the rest of those teams:
Kentucky: at Florida, vs Auburn, vs Vandy, at Arkansas
Tennessee: at A&M, vs South Carolina, vs Arkansas, at Auburn
Vandy: at LSU, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Mississippi State
Auburn: vs Ole Miss, at Kentucky, at Alabama, vs Tennessee
Mizzou: vs Mississippi State, at Georgia, at LSU, vs Ole Miss
Florida: vs Kentucky, at Vandy, at Georgia, vs LSU
Arkansas: vs Georgia, at Alabama, at Tennessee, vs Kentucky
Georgia: at Arkansas, vs Missouri, vs Florida, at South Carolina
Mississippi State: at Missouri, vs A&M, vs South Carolina, at Vandy
Missouri and Georgia are the only two teams that don't have a game left against anyone with a winning record in the league. Missouri's two remaining road games are probably easier as a duo than any other team's two remaining road games. I'm not predicting Missouri will go 4-0 in the last four. But if it does, I still think there's an excellent shot they get the 4 seed. If the Tigers lose one, they'll play on Thursday in the league tournament almost for sure.
