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1) We're going to start with basketball, mostly to make you guys happier as we go along. I think it's fair to say at this point that the Tigers are something less than they were a year ago. That doesn't mean they're terrible or that the future of the program is any less exciting than we have all thought it was. But exclusive to this year's team, they're not as good as they were last year. They're better defensively, but the difference isn't enough to make up for the dropoff we've seen offensively. The thing that strikes me is, those of us here who misjudged this team aren't alone. People in the program weren't shy about saying they thought they would be as good or better than last year. They felt like they had more pieces. They certainly said it to people besides me.
What we don't know--and won't know for a couple of years--is whether this is a one-year blip or whether overconfidence is something you have to be aware of going forward. I say this because every offseason Cuonzo Martin would tell us Missouri had the talent to win the SEC. But when you watched his teams play, it was obvious they did not have the talent to win the SEC. Martin seemed to legitimately believe it. But fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. It became the type of thing he'd say in the offseason but that I wouldn't believe.
I'm not saying we're there with Dennis Gates and his staff yet. Not at all. But it will be interesting to compare the buzz in the next couple of summers to what happens on the court.
2) More important than that is the why of it. Why is Mizzou struggling?
The first thing to me is the change in roles of Nick Honor and Noah Carter. They've gone from supporting cast members to main actors. Last year, Carter was fourth third among Mizzou regulars in percentage of possessions used (possessions that a player ends, either by a made shot, a missed shot that is rebounded by the defense or a turnover) at 21.4%. He had an offensive rating of 116.3, which ranked 253rd in the country on KenPom. He was 56th in the country in two-point percentage, shooting 65.6%. Those numbers have all dropped this year, except the usage rate. He's now second on the team in percentage of possessions ended at 22.5%. His percentage of shots has risen from 21.9 to 24. His offensive rating has dropped 11 points to 105. His effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage have dropped by 10 and 7% respectively. He's shooting just 49% on two-point attempts.
The difference is even more stark with Honor. Last year, he was the facilitator. He was eighth among Mizzou regulars in percentage of possessions he ended. It was just 13.6%. Mo Diarra and Tre Gomillion both ended a significantly higher percentage of possessions than Honor did a year ago. He never turned the ball over and he took just 216 shots in 35 games (an average of a little more than six per game). He was third on the team (behind Kobe Brown and D'Moi Hodge) in offensive rating and 161st in the country.
This year? The offensive rating has dropped from 118 to 111, despite the three-point percentage going up significantly (39 to 44.8, which is good for 135th in the country). His possession percentage is up to 20. He's already taken half as many shots this year (109) as he did all of last season. But the issue with Honor isn't really how much he's shooting; he's doing that pretty well. The issue is the turnovers. Last year, his assist rate was 15.8 and his turnover rate was 13.2. This year, those numbers have completely flipped. The assist rate is 13.5 and the turnover rate is 15.1. He's being asked to do more himself, so he's shooting the ball more, but passing it less and turning it over more.
Perhaps the most telling stat? Sean East and Tamar Bates, who far and away lead the team in offensive rating, rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in the percentage of shots taken. East leads the country in three-point percentage. Bates is 16th. They're the best offensive players Missouri has. But Carter, Honor and Caleb Grill are getting a higher percentage of shots when they're on the floor. It's not a huge gap, but it shouldn't be a gap at all. The best offensive players should be shooting the most. They did last year with Hodge and Brown. They aren't so far this year.
3) Okay, enough of that, let's talk a little football. We'll get our first chance to talk to the Tigers since the Cotton Bowl announcement tomorrow afternoon. We'll talk to Eli Drinkwitz on Wednesday. This will be our one shot to get them before Dallas. I'm expecting everyone to play except probably Ennis Rakestraw, who I simply don't think is going to be healthy enough. It seems more of Ohio State's players are going to suit up than we originally thought. We'll really get into our game previews toward the end of the week and by next Tuesday @JHamilton23 will be in Dallas and will be providing you coverage from everything he's allowed to attend leading up to the game.
4) But I know you're not really focused on the bowl game because it's portal season. And portal season has become perhaps the most exciting few weeks in college football. Despite the belief that it was going to kill the sport, it's done the exact opposite. It's taken interest to a whole new level. Honestly, I think some people that can't look away still believe it's terrible for the sport. And I'm not saying that in a derogatory way. If you want to make that argument, you can do so. But even if you hate it, you're watching. Because it's not just backups or guys that are getting pushed out that are transferring. It's big time names. It's like watching big-time free agents in pro sports. The difference here is we don't know who's going to be a free agent until it happens. In the pros, we have contracts. We all know when a player's contract is up. So you know when that player is going to hit the market. Where Shohei Ohtani was going to sign has been a story for a full year or more because everyone has known he was going to be a free agent at the end of 2023.
In college, you don't know. Any player's contract could be up after any season. But it might not. We just don't know until that player's name pops up on social media as being in the portal. And if it's the name of a big-time player, all of a sudden the feeding frenzy begins. Maybe your team's favorite player is coming back. Maybe he isn't. Every day you wake up and you don't really know for sure. At any time, an all-conference player could pop up as being suddenly available. Think about the NFL offseason if randomly on March 16th Patrick Mahomes tweeted "Thank you to the Kansas City Chiefs and everyone in the organization and all the fans. With that being said, I'm now a free agent." The world would lose its mind. And that's what happens EVERY SINGLE DAY in college football right now.
You can love it or you can hate it, but you're absolutely paying attention to it.
