1) Believe it or not, the Kansas Jayhawks did Missouri a favor yesterday. The path to the College Football Playoff is now clear: Win out and you're in it. That might have been true before yesterday. Some will say it was absolutely true yesterday. But now, there's no doubt. The Jayhawks beat Oklahoma 38-33, handing the Sooners their first loss of the season. Oklahoma has a win over Texas, but doesn't play another ranked team all year until the Big 12 title game (if OU gets there). Texas has a win over Alabama, but won't play another ranked team all year (although I expect Kansas to be ranked when the polls come out today). If Missouri wins out, it will have wins over Georgia, Tennessee and the SEC West champ. Plus it will have a win over Kansas State, which is currently the second best win of the year for both Oklahoma and Texas. The Big 12 champ may still find its way into the playoff, but there's no way it will be ranked/seeded higher than Missouri if Missouri wins out. There was a way in which 12-1 Missouri could have been left out before yesterday. There is no longer a way that happens.
2) Missouri's path begins with the best team in the country which played like the best team in the country yesterday. Georgia beat Florida 43-20 in a game that wasn't that close. I've had plans to watch two Georgia games this year: Kentucky and Florida. The problem was that both times I had something else to do and wasn't going to be able to turn the game on until early in the second quarter and by that time, both games were over. I do not think Georgia is as good as it has been the last two years. But I still think it's the best team in the country. I think the Bulldogs are able to turn it on when they need to, or at least they've been able to so far. If a game has Georgia's attention and it feels like it has something to prove, look out. Their A game is better than anyone else's A game. They can win most games without playing it. When they play it, they will win every game.
3) Other than the Sooners, the playoff hopeful that had the worst day might have been Washington. The Huskies did win. But they needed a dropped fourth down pass and a safety against lowly Stanford to do it. Washington is still undefeated, but they've needed fourth quarter survivals against Stanford and Arizona State (combined record: 4-12) in the last two weeks to remain that way. If they win out, they'll still get in. But they'll likely suffer in the rankings this week because of those two games. They're at USC, home against Utah and at Oregon State in the next three weeks. They need to get things figured out in a hurry or it's tough to see them getting through that without a loss.
4) Elsewhere in the SEC, Tennessee kept its SEC title game hopes alive with a 33-27 win over Kentucky in Lexington. I thought the real story of this game was that Devin Leary finally looked like the quarterback everyone thought the Wildcats were getting out of the portal. He went 28/39 for 372 yards and two touchdowns. But the Vols ran for 253 yards and Joe Milton quietly had a hell of a night too: 18/21, 229 yards and a TD plus 26 rushing yards. Tennessee doesn't have the passing game we've gotten used to Josh Heupel's teams having, but it's 7th in the country in rushing, 8th in sacks and 26th in total defense. The only teams that can now win the East are Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee. They all play each other over the next three weeks.
5) I guess I need to start taking Louisville seriously. The Cardinals shut out Duke 23-0 to move to 7-1 on the season. They have a bad, bad loss to Pitt, but wins over Duke and Notre Dame. They have Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami left, plus a non-conference game with Kentucky. If they win those games, they're in the ACC title game, probably against Florida State. If they win three of them, I think Jeff Brohm is probably your favorite for national coach of the year unless Eli Drinkwitz runs the table to finish 11-1.
6) The most impressive win of the week goes to the Oregon Ducks. Before yesterday, Utah had won 29 of its last 30 home games. It had won seven straight home/neutral site PAC-12 games against ranked opponents. It never had a shot yesterday. Oregon allowed the Utes just 241 yards of total offense and two first half field goals in a complete domination. The Ducks host Cal, USC and Oregon State and play at Arizona State in the last four weeks of the season. If they win those, they'll be in the PAC-12 title game, most likely in a rematch with Washington. Win that and Oregon's in the playoff.
7) For the Mizzou fans who think it only happens to you, I found two of the most painful ways to lose a college football game I've ever seen this week:
8) My Heisman ballot if I had to vote today:
Michael Penix, Washington
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
I have absolutely no idea who I'd vote for third
9) The College Football Playoff rankings will debut on Tuesday night. I think Missouri will be around 13th. My top four would be:
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Florida State
Washington is 8-0 and by default will probably be 5th even though they've looked terrible the last two weeks. Here are the Power Five teams with one loss who are still alive:
Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Alabama, Penn State (they won't make it), Ole Miss, Missouri, Louisville.
That's a total of 13 teams. I don't really Louisville has a shot. Too many other teams would have to lose. They're not getting in over a one-loss team from the PAC-12, SEC or Big Ten and probably wouldn't get in over a one-loss Big 12 champ either. Penn State simply isn't good enough to beat Michigan, so that's going to knock them out. Which means we're down to 11 teams for four spots. Missouri is one of the 11.
LSU is the only two-loss team I can see possibly having a path. If the Tigers win out, they'll have beaten Mizzou, Alabama and the SEC East champ (for now, that's Georgia). The only two losses are to Ole Miss and Florida State. They'd need help to get in, but it's not completely out of the question.
10) Five games I'll watch next week other than Mizzou/Georgia (actually I won't watch any because with travel and a 3:30 kickoff in Athens, there's no way I'll see any other games):
Kansas State at Texas, TBD: The winner has the inside track to the Big 12 title game. The loser still might get there for a rematch.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 11 am ESPN: I don't care that much about this game and don't really think it will be a very good game. But there aren't a lot of good games and the Rebels are in a similar spot to Mizzou. They would make the SEC title game and the CFP if they win out, but nobody's really talking about them doing it mostly because they still have to play at Georgia. Ole Miss has an easier path than the Tigers, though. After A&M and Georgia, they face Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.
Arkansas at Florida, 11 am ESPN2: Sam Pittman could sure use a win to cool his seat a little bit. But Billy Napier desperately needs one too. Florida has LSU, Mizzou and Florida State after the Razorbacks. The first two are on the road. A loss to Arkansas could very well mean a five-game losing streak to end the season at 5-7. It probably wouldn't cost Napier his job, but man it wouldn't be a very fun offseason.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 2:30, ABC: The Cowboys have turned things around. And you know they'd like nothing better than to completely ruin Oklahoma's year in the last edition of Bedlam before the Sooners depart for the SEC.
LSU at Alabama, 6:45, CBS: The winner has the inside track to the SEC Championship Game.
2) Missouri's path begins with the best team in the country which played like the best team in the country yesterday. Georgia beat Florida 43-20 in a game that wasn't that close. I've had plans to watch two Georgia games this year: Kentucky and Florida. The problem was that both times I had something else to do and wasn't going to be able to turn the game on until early in the second quarter and by that time, both games were over. I do not think Georgia is as good as it has been the last two years. But I still think it's the best team in the country. I think the Bulldogs are able to turn it on when they need to, or at least they've been able to so far. If a game has Georgia's attention and it feels like it has something to prove, look out. Their A game is better than anyone else's A game. They can win most games without playing it. When they play it, they will win every game.
3) Other than the Sooners, the playoff hopeful that had the worst day might have been Washington. The Huskies did win. But they needed a dropped fourth down pass and a safety against lowly Stanford to do it. Washington is still undefeated, but they've needed fourth quarter survivals against Stanford and Arizona State (combined record: 4-12) in the last two weeks to remain that way. If they win out, they'll still get in. But they'll likely suffer in the rankings this week because of those two games. They're at USC, home against Utah and at Oregon State in the next three weeks. They need to get things figured out in a hurry or it's tough to see them getting through that without a loss.
4) Elsewhere in the SEC, Tennessee kept its SEC title game hopes alive with a 33-27 win over Kentucky in Lexington. I thought the real story of this game was that Devin Leary finally looked like the quarterback everyone thought the Wildcats were getting out of the portal. He went 28/39 for 372 yards and two touchdowns. But the Vols ran for 253 yards and Joe Milton quietly had a hell of a night too: 18/21, 229 yards and a TD plus 26 rushing yards. Tennessee doesn't have the passing game we've gotten used to Josh Heupel's teams having, but it's 7th in the country in rushing, 8th in sacks and 26th in total defense. The only teams that can now win the East are Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee. They all play each other over the next three weeks.
5) I guess I need to start taking Louisville seriously. The Cardinals shut out Duke 23-0 to move to 7-1 on the season. They have a bad, bad loss to Pitt, but wins over Duke and Notre Dame. They have Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami left, plus a non-conference game with Kentucky. If they win those games, they're in the ACC title game, probably against Florida State. If they win three of them, I think Jeff Brohm is probably your favorite for national coach of the year unless Eli Drinkwitz runs the table to finish 11-1.
6) The most impressive win of the week goes to the Oregon Ducks. Before yesterday, Utah had won 29 of its last 30 home games. It had won seven straight home/neutral site PAC-12 games against ranked opponents. It never had a shot yesterday. Oregon allowed the Utes just 241 yards of total offense and two first half field goals in a complete domination. The Ducks host Cal, USC and Oregon State and play at Arizona State in the last four weeks of the season. If they win those, they'll be in the PAC-12 title game, most likely in a rematch with Washington. Win that and Oregon's in the playoff.
7) For the Mizzou fans who think it only happens to you, I found two of the most painful ways to lose a college football game I've ever seen this week:
8) My Heisman ballot if I had to vote today:
Michael Penix, Washington
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
I have absolutely no idea who I'd vote for third
9) The College Football Playoff rankings will debut on Tuesday night. I think Missouri will be around 13th. My top four would be:
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Florida State
Washington is 8-0 and by default will probably be 5th even though they've looked terrible the last two weeks. Here are the Power Five teams with one loss who are still alive:
Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, Alabama, Penn State (they won't make it), Ole Miss, Missouri, Louisville.
That's a total of 13 teams. I don't really Louisville has a shot. Too many other teams would have to lose. They're not getting in over a one-loss team from the PAC-12, SEC or Big Ten and probably wouldn't get in over a one-loss Big 12 champ either. Penn State simply isn't good enough to beat Michigan, so that's going to knock them out. Which means we're down to 11 teams for four spots. Missouri is one of the 11.
LSU is the only two-loss team I can see possibly having a path. If the Tigers win out, they'll have beaten Mizzou, Alabama and the SEC East champ (for now, that's Georgia). The only two losses are to Ole Miss and Florida State. They'd need help to get in, but it's not completely out of the question.
10) Five games I'll watch next week other than Mizzou/Georgia (actually I won't watch any because with travel and a 3:30 kickoff in Athens, there's no way I'll see any other games):
Kansas State at Texas, TBD: The winner has the inside track to the Big 12 title game. The loser still might get there for a rematch.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 11 am ESPN: I don't care that much about this game and don't really think it will be a very good game. But there aren't a lot of good games and the Rebels are in a similar spot to Mizzou. They would make the SEC title game and the CFP if they win out, but nobody's really talking about them doing it mostly because they still have to play at Georgia. Ole Miss has an easier path than the Tigers, though. After A&M and Georgia, they face Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.
Arkansas at Florida, 11 am ESPN2: Sam Pittman could sure use a win to cool his seat a little bit. But Billy Napier desperately needs one too. Florida has LSU, Mizzou and Florida State after the Razorbacks. The first two are on the road. A loss to Arkansas could very well mean a five-game losing streak to end the season at 5-7. It probably wouldn't cost Napier his job, but man it wouldn't be a very fun offseason.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 2:30, ABC: The Cowboys have turned things around. And you know they'd like nothing better than to completely ruin Oklahoma's year in the last edition of Bedlam before the Sooners depart for the SEC.
LSU at Alabama, 6:45, CBS: The winner has the inside track to the SEC Championship Game.
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