1. And they said this week was gonna be boring. First time since 1985 (and only the second time in history) that Nos. 2, 3, and 4 lost on the same weekend.
Oh, No. 8 and No. 9 went down too. That's half the top ten. That's why college football is fun. Embrace the chaos.
2. But the ten thoughts knew...From last week's post:
USC at Washington--630 pm, Fox--The Trojans have the talent to shock the Huskies and really shake up the playoff
Michigan at Iowa--7 pm, ABC--Logic says this won't be close. It might not be. Call it a hunch.
3. The weekend's second biggest winner was Penn State. The Nittany Lions have Rutgers and Michigan State left in the regular season. They should win both. If they do, the need an Ohio State win over Michigan to make the Big Ten title game. Heck of a job by James Franklin. Here are the B1G scenarios for each of the three teams in the East to make the title game:
Michigan: Beat Indiana and Ohio State
Penn State: Beat Rutgers and Michigan State, Ohio State beats Michigan
Ohio State: Beat Michigan State and Michigan, Penn State loses to either Rutgers or Michigan State
4. The weekend's biggest winner was Alabama. The Tide play Chattanooga this week. Let's call that a win. What that means is that Bama has to simply beat Auburn OR win the SEC title game to make the playoff. They don't have to win both. A one-loss Bama will get in. So if you win the Iron Bowl, you're playing what amounts to an exhibition tuneup in Atlanta.
5. Who will the Tide face? It's either Florida or Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU, they're in. If Florida loses to LSU and Tennessee beats Missouri and Vandy, it's the Vols. Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia and Vandy were all eliminated based on yesterday's results.
6. USC is the best team in the PAC-12. Earlier this year, Clay Helton was all but fired according to most people. The Trojans are now winners of six straight with disappointing UCLA and Notre Dame left on the schedule. They've beaten Colorado and Washington in that stretch. If the season would have started in early October rather than early September, and if freshman Sam Darnold had been the quarterback all along, the Trojans just might be in the playoff discussion.
7. And if the national title were decided on Halloween, Kevin Sumlin would be a Hall of Famer and A&M would be the program it likes to think it is. The Aggies are now 3-8 in November conference games in the last three seasons after blowing a 21-6 lead and losing to Ole Miss 29-28. For years I've said A&M is the most perennially overrated team in America. They were somehow No. 4 in the country a couple weeks ago. They've lost two in a row since then and still have to play LSU. 8-4 or 9-3 is a good season...but that's where A&M lives, not in the 11-12 win discussion like people seem to think it will every October.
8. So what happens with the playoff?
This week, the top four, IMO, should go like this:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Louisville
I'd have Michigan 5th and Washington 6th. I'd go Wisconsin 7 and Penn State 8, Oklahoma 9, Colorado 10.
Here's how the last three weeks shake out and who can get in:
Bama is in, as mentioned above, simply by beating Chattanooga and winning one more. The Ohio State/Michigan winner is in if it doesn't lose the Big Ten title game. Clemson is in if it runs the table (Wake Forest, South Carolina, ACC title game). This is where it gets really interesting:
The Ohio State/Michigan loser will have beaten Wisconsin head to head and almost certainly has to stay above the Badgers. And it will end the season 10-2 because it won't play in the B1G title game. Michigan has wins over Wisconsin and Penn State. Ohio State has wins over Wisconsin and Oklahoma. Louisville has beaten Florida State and has a close loss to Clemson, which is the "best loss" of the one-loss teams right now. But Louisville can't leap Clemson in the rankings if Clemson doesn't lose again. Washington has a solid loss to USC and can bolster a currently shaky one-loss resume with wins over Washington State and Colorado (in the PAC12 title game). But it seems unlikely the Huskies can jump over enough of those other teams without a couple of them losing.
So really, not much changed since last week. Bama, the Ohio State/Michigan winner and Clemson are still looking very good. The fourth spot comes down to Louisville, Washington and the Ohio State/Michigan loser in all likelihood.
Teams that have a chance, but still need help: Wisconsin, Penn State, Oklahoma, Colorado
9. My Heisman ballot as of today:
Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Jalen Hurts, Alabama
Korey Davis, Western Michigan
10. Five games I'll watch next week (ESPN is currently listing most times as TBD):
Louisville at Houston, Thursday 7 pm, ESPN: Look out Cardinals. Houston is good. People have forgotten about them. Can they rise up for one day? I think they just might.
Washington State at Colorado: The game isn't that meaningful for the Cougars. Their PAC 12 North title hopes ride on the Washington game. But the Buffs need this one. Underrated game here. Winner might be the national coach of the year.
Oklahoma at West Virginia: Sooners are unbeaten in Big 12 play. West Virginia has one loss. Nothing can be decided because Oklahoma State also has just one loss, but the Mountaineers have to win this one to stay alive for the title.
Oklahoma State at TCU: This is my upset pick of the week. Frogs beat the Pokes. That would mean OU would win the Big 12 if they beat West Virginia.
Florida at LSU, Noon, SECN: I feel like if he wins this one, Ed Orgeron has done enough to get the permanent job. Gators can clinch a spot in Atlanta.
Oh, No. 8 and No. 9 went down too. That's half the top ten. That's why college football is fun. Embrace the chaos.
2. But the ten thoughts knew...From last week's post:
USC at Washington--630 pm, Fox--The Trojans have the talent to shock the Huskies and really shake up the playoff
Michigan at Iowa--7 pm, ABC--Logic says this won't be close. It might not be. Call it a hunch.
3. The weekend's second biggest winner was Penn State. The Nittany Lions have Rutgers and Michigan State left in the regular season. They should win both. If they do, the need an Ohio State win over Michigan to make the Big Ten title game. Heck of a job by James Franklin. Here are the B1G scenarios for each of the three teams in the East to make the title game:
Michigan: Beat Indiana and Ohio State
Penn State: Beat Rutgers and Michigan State, Ohio State beats Michigan
Ohio State: Beat Michigan State and Michigan, Penn State loses to either Rutgers or Michigan State
4. The weekend's biggest winner was Alabama. The Tide play Chattanooga this week. Let's call that a win. What that means is that Bama has to simply beat Auburn OR win the SEC title game to make the playoff. They don't have to win both. A one-loss Bama will get in. So if you win the Iron Bowl, you're playing what amounts to an exhibition tuneup in Atlanta.
5. Who will the Tide face? It's either Florida or Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU, they're in. If Florida loses to LSU and Tennessee beats Missouri and Vandy, it's the Vols. Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia and Vandy were all eliminated based on yesterday's results.
6. USC is the best team in the PAC-12. Earlier this year, Clay Helton was all but fired according to most people. The Trojans are now winners of six straight with disappointing UCLA and Notre Dame left on the schedule. They've beaten Colorado and Washington in that stretch. If the season would have started in early October rather than early September, and if freshman Sam Darnold had been the quarterback all along, the Trojans just might be in the playoff discussion.
7. And if the national title were decided on Halloween, Kevin Sumlin would be a Hall of Famer and A&M would be the program it likes to think it is. The Aggies are now 3-8 in November conference games in the last three seasons after blowing a 21-6 lead and losing to Ole Miss 29-28. For years I've said A&M is the most perennially overrated team in America. They were somehow No. 4 in the country a couple weeks ago. They've lost two in a row since then and still have to play LSU. 8-4 or 9-3 is a good season...but that's where A&M lives, not in the 11-12 win discussion like people seem to think it will every October.
8. So what happens with the playoff?
This week, the top four, IMO, should go like this:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Louisville
I'd have Michigan 5th and Washington 6th. I'd go Wisconsin 7 and Penn State 8, Oklahoma 9, Colorado 10.
Here's how the last three weeks shake out and who can get in:
Bama is in, as mentioned above, simply by beating Chattanooga and winning one more. The Ohio State/Michigan winner is in if it doesn't lose the Big Ten title game. Clemson is in if it runs the table (Wake Forest, South Carolina, ACC title game). This is where it gets really interesting:
The Ohio State/Michigan loser will have beaten Wisconsin head to head and almost certainly has to stay above the Badgers. And it will end the season 10-2 because it won't play in the B1G title game. Michigan has wins over Wisconsin and Penn State. Ohio State has wins over Wisconsin and Oklahoma. Louisville has beaten Florida State and has a close loss to Clemson, which is the "best loss" of the one-loss teams right now. But Louisville can't leap Clemson in the rankings if Clemson doesn't lose again. Washington has a solid loss to USC and can bolster a currently shaky one-loss resume with wins over Washington State and Colorado (in the PAC12 title game). But it seems unlikely the Huskies can jump over enough of those other teams without a couple of them losing.
So really, not much changed since last week. Bama, the Ohio State/Michigan winner and Clemson are still looking very good. The fourth spot comes down to Louisville, Washington and the Ohio State/Michigan loser in all likelihood.
Teams that have a chance, but still need help: Wisconsin, Penn State, Oklahoma, Colorado
9. My Heisman ballot as of today:
Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Jalen Hurts, Alabama
Korey Davis, Western Michigan
10. Five games I'll watch next week (ESPN is currently listing most times as TBD):
Louisville at Houston, Thursday 7 pm, ESPN: Look out Cardinals. Houston is good. People have forgotten about them. Can they rise up for one day? I think they just might.
Washington State at Colorado: The game isn't that meaningful for the Cougars. Their PAC 12 North title hopes ride on the Washington game. But the Buffs need this one. Underrated game here. Winner might be the national coach of the year.
Oklahoma at West Virginia: Sooners are unbeaten in Big 12 play. West Virginia has one loss. Nothing can be decided because Oklahoma State also has just one loss, but the Mountaineers have to win this one to stay alive for the title.
Oklahoma State at TCU: This is my upset pick of the week. Frogs beat the Pokes. That would mean OU would win the Big 12 if they beat West Virginia.
Florida at LSU, Noon, SECN: I feel like if he wins this one, Ed Orgeron has done enough to get the permanent job. Gators can clinch a spot in Atlanta.
